Okay. Now that we've established that "Cars" didn't exactly do as well as investment analysts and/or entertainment industry insiders had hoped it would, let's expand our horizons a bit.

So please join me now on JHM's observation deck. Which is the Internet's equivalent of 20,000 feet up.

From this vantage point, we'll not only be able to see how Pixar's latest film has been doing at the box office. We'll also be able to scope out how Dreamworks Animation's "Over the Hedge" AND Sony Pictures Animation' "Monster House" AND Warner Bros. "The Ant Bully" AND Paramount Pictures' "Barnyard: The Original Party Animals" did, ticket sales-wise. As well as take a look back at how Universal Studios' "Curious George," 20th Century Fox's "Ice Age: The Meltdown," Disney's "The Wild" and the Weinstein Company's "Hoodwinked" & "Doogal" did earlier this year.

Hmmn ... Isn't that interesting? Please note that -- toward the start of the year -- things seemed fairly upbeat in Toontown. The press seemed rather impressed with how well "Hoodwinked" had done at the box office. They also seemed extremely pleased with how "Ice Age: The Meltdown" did in March, when this Blue Sky Studios production actually managed to out-do the worldwide gross of the original "Ice Age" by some $250 million.

Alright. So there were a few mis-steps along the way. "Curious George" (Which many animation vets had hoped would do extremely well. Thereby clearing the way for a revival of traditional animation) only did fair-to-middling during its February school vacation release. Pulling in little more than $58 million during its entire domestic run. Whereas "Doogal" ... Well, this Weinstein Company release basically rolled over and played dead once it hit theaters two weeks later.

Copyright 2006 Universal Studios

As for "The Wild" ... Well, clearly audiences weren't all that wild about this Disney Feature Animation experiment with CG out-sourcing. Though "The Wild" did almost twice as much business as WDFA's similiarly out-sourced "Valiant," it still didn't even come close to recovering its production costs. Never mind possibly turning a profit.

Copyright 2006 Disney Enterprises

But then came May and the arrival of the summer's first big budget / heavily hyped animated feature, "Over the Hedge." Given that this was Dreamworks Animation's best reviewed film since "Shrek 2" ("OVH" 's Rotten Tomatoes rating stood at 75%), the hope was that this Tim Johnson & Karey Kirkpatrick film would then do "Shrek" -sized business.

But that didn't happen. "Over the Hedge" actually did very solid business for a while, but eventually this Bonnie Arnold production just ran out of steam. With its domestic box office now topping out at $154.4 million, "OTH" didn't come close to making "Shrek" level money. Hell, Dreamworks Animation's latest couldn't even top that studio's earlier releases, "Shark Tale" and "Madagascar." And given the generally lackluster reviews that these two Dreamworks animated features had gotten ... Well, "OTH" 's soft box office performance really surprised a lot of animation insiders.

Copyright 2006 Dreamworks Animation

But, wait. When it came to the Summer of 2006, the animation-related surprises were only just beginning. As JHM readers already know far too well, Pixar's latest has proven to be a bit of a disappointment at the domestic box office. But when you compare "Cars" stateside earnings ($239.5 million to date) to what "Monster House" has pulled in ($67.3 million) or "Barnyard: The Original Party Animals" ($45.9 million) or "The Ant Bully" ($23.5 million) ... Well, that's the start of a pretty disturbing trend, don't you think?

To be specific: The grosses for CG features that were produced by established players in the animation industry (I.E. Pixar & Dreamworks Animation) have been noticably off this year. Whereas the grosses for CG features that were produced by studios that were just getting into the animation game ... Well, these guys are now struggling just to cover their initial marketing & production costs. Never mind turning a profit.

Copyright 2006 Disney / Pixar

And given this trend ... Well, you just know that the studios that still have CG features that are slated to be released later this year ...

... have to be sweating bullets right about now. Given the tens of millions of dollars that all four of these studios now have tied up in these CG projects. Particularly when you've got industry insiders like News Corp president Peter Chernin making doom-and-gloom pronouncements like:

"You're just seeing too many [animated] movies in the market, and the average box office ... is coming down."

Which is why there's now a whiff of panic in the air. As the executives who actually put up all of the money necessary to make these rather expensive CG features are now beginning to ask: "Are we going to get a return on our initial investment?"

Copyright 2006 20th Century Fox

It used to be that you could at least count on your feature length cartoon making some money once it debuted on disc. But not any longer. To explain: Have you seen the list of recent CG films that are coming out on DVD in the next few months?

Over a single 13 week-long period, there are 12 different animated features coming out on DVD. And though each of these discs' releases will be supported by a hugely expensive, multi-media promotional campaign ... Well, with so much new product (which is aimed directly at the family audience) flooding into the marketplace within such a short period of time ... It's just not realistic to expect that each & every one of these films will then go on to become a DVD best seller.

Copyright 2006 20th Century Fox

Which means that the DVD safety net that so many of these studio execs had been counting on when they initially greenlit production of all of these CG animated features ... Well, it just isn't going to be there this time. Not for all of these films, anyway.

And while I'm not saying that Pixar, Disney or even Dreamworks Animation will be forced to go out of business if the DVD versions of "Cars," "The Wild" or "Over the Hedge" don't sell all that well ... For some of these other newer CG operations ... It could be a very different story.

Copyright 2006 Universal Studios

You want to know the really ironic part of this whole situation? Based on what I just saw at SIGGRAPH 2006, some of the strongest, most entertaining CG films of this year (I.E. "Flushed Away," "Happy Feet" & "Open Season") haven't made it into theaters yet. Hell, even "Everyone's Hero" (based on the footage that I got to see earlier this month in Boston, anyway) looks to be a real charmer.

And yet -- thanks to moviegoers' growing fatigue with CG films -- these new animated features may now never get their shot at achieving real box office success. And if that actually happens ... Well, look for this unfortunate development to have a real chilling effect on the animation industry going forward into 2007 & 2008.

Copyright 2006 Disney Enterprises

For -- as Disney CFO Thomas Staggs said in a recent interview with the "Financial Times" :

“We’ve seen episodes like this before where many, many people got into the animation business ... I don’t know if everyone will stay in.”

Which is why it will be really interesting to see who's still in the CG business come 2009 & 2010.

Copyright 2006 Disney Enterprises

Sooo ... Looking down from the JHM observation deck and off into the coming holiday shopping season, which of the DVDs that I've listed above will you be adding to your Xmas list? More importantly, which of these dics will you be taking a pass on?

Your thoughts?

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