Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 02:15:44 GMT

Can you really blame them for wanting to lower expectations? I mean besides the fact that by the time it comes out, three films including an animated one will (likely) have grossed over $300 million, besides the fact that it will have such films as Evan Almighty on its back, besides the fact that Surf's Up will remind audiences that not all animated movies are good and besides the fact that it will undoubtedly have the common Nemo/Shrek comparisons, it will have to face Transformers (dumb movie imo) and Harry Potter 5 (coinciding with book 7 hype). For a film like Ratatouille, it is best to set expectations low, so even if it only gets to a relatively low number (under Cars, etc) it's not that big of a deal (and if it does well... all the better).

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 03:58:04 GMT

Blah, there's no reason to set expectations low, nor high. Just wait and see.

(I'm just saying from my experience.)

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 08:09:55 GMT

My husband & I absolutely love the trailers (and the 9 minute preview on Disney.com), and we'll definitely be seeing it when it opens. It looks like such a great movie, I think I'll like it better than "Cars" (so far my favorite Pixar movie). I had never thought that "Ratatouille" wouldn't do well. It looks so different from other Pixar films, both in story and in the animation. I hope it does really well...

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 09:02:48 GMT

So Ratatouille could make less than Cars? In other words it'll probably make over 200 million at the box office and tons more on dvd. I can't see how that's disappointing.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 09:48:01 GMT

Jim,

I wonder if Pirates 3 could have beaten Spider-Man 3 had Pirates run only 1 an hour and 50 minutes instead of 2 hours and 50 minutes. Less time equals more showings. Pirates 3 dominated over half the screens in my 12 screen local multi-plex. I saw the movie twice this weekend. It doesn't seem like it takes 2 hours and 50 minutes. I think they maybe could have trimmed it down by an hour and saved the extras for the Dvd. Maybe that would have made the Accountateers happy.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 10:00:45 GMT

"You know that 'Ratatouille' isn't really a Brad Bird movie, right ? That Brad just did what he could with a Jan Pinkava film that was already going down in flames"

I find such words quite astonishing quite frankly. This is already writing off the movie before it has even been completed. I fear for this movie.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 10:07:19 GMT

I am usually not a fan of Pixar movies, but this movie has my attention! I for one can't wait for the rat to hit the big screen! IMO Transformers and Potter have nothing on this movie.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 10:10:50 GMT

I suspect I'll like Ratatouille a lot, but I wonder if it will really catch on with the all import kiddie demo? My DD normally is on fire to see a new Disney/Pixar film, but she really hasn't said much about this one. I'm sure we'll see it but thus far her attitude seems to be, "A film about a rat? BLECH!"

All along I've been worried this film would not be nearly as popular as the previous Pixar films (yes, even less popular than that "bomb" of a film Cars!) and now, looking at the competition it's going up against, I think those fears are justified.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 10:33:45 GMT

My only point about this not being a Brad Bird film is that since the comment comes from a "Disney insider", I wouldn't put to much faith in it. If it had come from a Pixar insider, I'd trust it more. The fact is, 18 months is a long time in the world of computer animation compared to a live-action film. Although I'm sure Brad isn't as tied to this film as the ones he himself instigated, I'm also sure he has more than put his stamp on it in the time he has been there.

And the 9 minutes prove it's going to be great, so if it underperforms at the box office, that's just the audience's loss. They can waste their time with crap like "Shrek", if that's what they want.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 11:07:04 GMT

Maybe I'm reading between the lines here, but it almost sounds like there are some insiders at Disney who WANT it to flop, or at least not perform very well. Like maybe there are some who are a little sore about the Pixar acquisition and "takeover" of animation? Not that I think this is going to be a "blockbuster" for them, but I think it will do okay, hopefully, at least as good as Cars.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 12:07:04 GMT

I am just wondering why in the world would so many movies want to be squeezed into a 4month time frame with so many other big films. Think about it. Does any one here think that if Harry Potter 5 came out in January no one would go see it? What about when the other Pixar films when they used to come out in the Fall… Everyone went to go see them then. I just hate the fact that everyone wants to put their big blockbuster only during the summer. It’s foolish when you have 8 other months of quieter films. I think it was a bad thing for Pixar to move their films to the summer, just because of how The Incredibles did. Talk about a knee-jerk decision. I also understand that they wanted to be able to sell the DVDs at Christmas time, but once again so will all of the other big DVDS from the summer. By the way askmike1 about Surf’s Up… Your not being to smart about your opinion about that film. Granted Open Season was not a very good film, and it felt cheep and had a lot of pop culture in it. But you are making a foolish decision about Surf’s Up. It will be one of the best animated films of the year next to Ratatouille. If you like the TV series The Office, or if you like those very funny Mocumentary films like This is Spinal Tap, then you will really like Surf’s Up. It might not make as much as the other animated films this year, but like the fools who pass up on seeing Ratatouille, you would be a fool by not seeing Surf’s Up. I saw 10 minutes of it, and it was great. And very well done. But don’t take my word for it. Look at these very funny 8 clips over here at

http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1809418890/video/2815133/20070524/52/2815133-1000-wmv-s.37384743-,2815133-700-flash-s.37382720-,2815133-700-wmv-s.37382713-,2815133-1000-flash-s.37382723-,2815133-100-flash-s.37382715-,2815133-100-wmv-s.37382708-,2815133-300-flash-s.37382718-,2815133-300-wmv-s.37382710-

Give it a chance before you make an ignorant statement and choice.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 12:26:42 GMT

By the way Jim, why aren't you doing a Podcast by yourself? I know you are doing it with those other two guys, but the only good parts, are when you are on it. Just my opinion.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 12:26:57 GMT

Dear Pixar;

Please just keep making the types of movies that you enjoy, and I will enjoy them too. Thank you for making the kinds of movies that, in 20, 30, or 50 years, we'll be able to see the special triple platinum editions of on Holo-DVD and still enjoy.

Sincerely,

Ilsoap

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 12:39:52 GMT

Releasing Ratatouille against Harry Potter is probably the worst thing that Disney can do for the film - since Harry Potter is going to have a HUGE amount of hype because of the upcoming final book in the series and is an easier sell then "Our movie's about a rat who wants to cook" is...well, as much as I want the movie to succeed, I think that Disney's right this time around. As soon as Potter comes out, I think Ratatouille is done for.

That said, Ratatouille does have a few weeks of lead time over Harry Potter. Since Shrek 3 will be more or less done by the time Ratatouille comes out at the end of June, it's probably going to have a good start at the box office. Unfortunately, this year's not going to allow it to have the staying power that Nemo had.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 12:58:56 GMT

I agree with GrumpyFan, this insider sounds like he's waiting for Pixar to stumble, this is just typical Disney backstabbing etiquette.

Pixar will survive because they have a winning formula: They tell a good story, and they put a little heart and feeling below the slick surfaces. This film NEVER had blockbuster written all over it, and if it had been handled by another studio, it would be a guaranteed flop, but this is Pixar, an animation studio with one of the most successful track records in history (in over ten years, NONE of their films have lost money) From what I've seen of the movie so far, it looks like they'll make their money back and then some, in spite of the tough competition.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 13:00:35 GMT

Pirates' opening isn't THAT disappointing. The film DID have the advantage of being released on Memorial Day weekend. And they outdid Shrek 3 quite easily. ;)

The only probable limitation is that some moviegoers aren't willing to sit thru a 3-hour film.

Ratatouille has a slim shot at success. I personally don't see why anyone should see Evan Almighty, which still looks like a sequel that NEVER should've been made (more of a spin-off than sequel, really). However, there is a reason why Disney is concerned. Aside from Harry Potter and Transformer, everybody will be going out to see The Simpsons movie later in the summer, so it will barely have a chance at being the "top" film. And moving the film would be out of the question at this point, especially considering how Disney has another film they're betting on this holiday season, as well as the schedule for Disney and Pixar's other films.

Where it's at now, Ratatouille may succeed, or it may not. At least this time, they're not setting unrealistic expectations for a Pixar production.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 13:22:12 GMT

"Releasing Ratatouille against Harry Potter is probably the worst thing that Disney can do for the film"

They really didn't have all that much of a choice this year. You have to figure that the only times they will consider releasing it is in Summer (usually June) or Winter (usually November). But this year is no ordinary year. If placed in the summer, it would have to contend with the big 3, Harry Potter, Transformers, Even Almighty and a bunch of other films, the advantage being the summer weekdays. Now if released in the winter, it would have to face such movies as Enchanted, Rush Hour 3, National Treasure 2, Bee Movie and bunch of other could-be-big movies, the major disadvantage being of course the school weekdays.

As for Pirates, its is by no means disappointing. Biggest worldwide opener ($400m in SIX DAYS 8-) ), biggest memorial day weekend gross ($142m), biggest previews ($14m), possibly biggest Monday ever (needs to increase $700k in the actuals). The records have just begun to be broken. As for Shrek the Third, it's 4-day memorial day weekend gross was $68.9 million..... not bad..... but compare that to the $95 million it made last year (with a smaller opening weekend). Opening weekends are important..... but legs are even more (and that is something for AWE that time will have to tell).

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 13:24:57 GMT

This is going to be an interesting summer for animation fans.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 13:28:25 GMT

It seem to recall reading in several accounts that a certain Disney executive, now a basic-cable TV personality, was circulating an opinion that "Finding Nemo" wasn't as good as earlier Pixar features and was going to be the one that ended their amazing run of success.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 13:42:50 GMT

Forget opening weekends. What can they expect? Pirates is longer than Spiderman, and on a holiday weekend.... just maybe people had something else to do rather than goto the movies.

At the end of the day.... POTC3 will most likely squash SPM3 in total sales. In fact, considering how fast people have stoped going to Spiderman.... POTC could in the end double what that makes. Thats a stretch.... but you never know.

As far as "Ratatouille" in concerned. It's too bad really. I could tell right away that the film seems more like a spring, or a winter holiday movie than a summer blockbuster. Even Meet the Robinsons or Bridge To Teribithia have that summer flavor more. There have been many, many, great movies... if not small masterpieces overlooked during summer over the years. Look at Corpse Bride. One of those charming, quirky little movies. Didn't do that well. Disneys Dinosaur... what I still believe is a astounding technical achievement.... and a good Disney film. Didn't get that much recognition. Peter Jackson's KING KONG... I really thought this movie was flawless onjust about every level..... didn't even scrap the top ten.

It just happens. Sometimes the films that had the most creative tallent or achievement miss the mark with the masses. I don't know why.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 13:54:58 GMT

For the record. I realize that niether CORPSE BRIDE nor KING KONG were summer films. I was trying to point out that the really well put together films sometimes don't gain success. Regardless of when they are released.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 15:11:34 GMT

"Look, I know that a lot of JHM readers are still mad at me for having come down so hard on "Cars" last year. For perhaps over-reporting that this John Lasseter film failed to meet its initial financial projections." - Jim Hill

Wow. An almost-apology for needlessly bashing a great and successful film.

I'm impressed Jim... baby steps... baby steps. ;o)

As far as this story goes... it amazes me how much the tail wags the dog. Or tries to at any rate. The studios make all this fuss to... other studios. Who then fuss right back. The media blindly jumps on every scrap tossed from the table and tries to make something out of nothing.

When in reality it's the viewing public that determines if there is anything to fuss about in the first place. You would think that the studios would simply try to make a good movie, try to make an entertaining and accurate trailer, and then release the film. Projections and records are fine IN HOUSE, but what do they really mean? Not much in my opinion. I've never seen a film because of the studio name attached to it (and that includes Disney - there are several films I havnt seen from them), I've never seen a film because it held some box office record, I've never seen a film based on a critic/reviewer, etc, etc,...

Rat looks like a possibly entertaining film from what I've seen of it. I have no desire to see it in the theaters unless my 9 yr old nephew wants to go see it (which i doubt) but I plan on renting it. I hope it does well for Disney and Pixars sake. I just hope that people don't over hype it OR underplay it. Let the chips fall where they may.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 15:57:29 GMT

I too think Ratatouille should be released in the wintertime. Granted it's still got competition like askmike1 points out, but personally, I just think the movie seems to have more of a wintry-type of feel to it.

I am interested to see how much the Pixar name counts for bringing people into the

theaters. To be honest, the only reason why I'm planning to see this one in the theater is because it's Pixar/Disney. Otherwise I would have waited for this on rental (like I'm doing with Shrek 3).

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 16:29:00 GMT

POTC 3 lost the weekend battle but will most likely win the war (biggest movie of the summer if not year)...Rat may end up getting beat up by the other summer films.. I mean look what has come out already and its not even June; lots of choices this summer.

At least Rat is not Surfs Up...Sony seems perplexed on how to market this film....

Ultimately this will be a record breaking summer for Hollywood....studio exec will be able to buying more gold plated Hummers when its all said and done..

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 17:05:57 GMT

There was a considerable buzz for Ratatouille in the theater when I saw Pirates this weekend, but it was nothing compared to the whoops of delight shown when the trailer for The Rock's new idiotic family comedy played. But it did get more of a reaction than the Transformers trailer did, oddly enough.

It feels small, and it looks great. I hope it does well, but if it doesn't, I still think that it's a great step in the right direction for Pixar. Get away from the Shrek fart jokes and the same tired old stories we're all sick of seeing. Ratatouille certainly isn't anything we've seen before, and that's something to treasure. Especially mired in another summer of mostly disappointing sequels.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 17:11:26 GMT

I think "Rat" will have a nice box office run. I'm not saying "huge", because I think that maybe the public shouldn't judge a movie only by its box office any more. I for one did that in the past sometimes, and it's not box office that sets the quality of a movie. Its the movie itself. And I think "Rat" will be a movie with animated quality of which we haven't seen in a long time, judging only by trailers and exclusive clips of course, and, even though I was skeptic at first, I think they can market Remi/y. Just don't focus too much on his rattiness.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 17:44:15 GMT

I think this is the key sentence:

"More importantly, that this Brad Bird movie doesn't feature any brava action sequences like Woody & Buzz chasing after the moving van in "Toy Story" or that chase through the Door Hangar in "Monsters, Inc.""

"Smart & cute" are for rental (or wait for TV).

There's no point in spending $10 on tickets unless the audience is visually stunned in action, not just character & set design. If this film is too "talky", then a lot of families may have a hard time keeping their kids interested.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 18:33:26 GMT

I disagree BWSmith.

If you want to be "visually stunned in action" go see an action/adventure movie.

Don't go see Toy Story, or Monsters, Inc., or Ratatouille.

If, however, you want to enjoy a good story, told well, with great production values... you could do alot worse than seeing a Pixar flick.

To say that 'When Harry Met Sally" could have been a much better movie if only it had a "brava action sequence" is foolishness in my opinion.

And if I'm not mistaken... in the trailers, don't we see a chase scene of some sort with knives flying all over the place? What level of action is really required in order to tell a story? What level of action is required to tell this story? I trust that Brad Bird got it right, but only time will tell.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 19:19:47 GMT

Oh Lord, not again.

OK, look, Jim, let me be perfectly clear here. The reason people were cheesed off over your articles about "Cars"--or at least, the reason I was cheesed off--wasn't that you were telling a bunch of gosh-darn lies. Everything you reported was true, I'm sure. But as we've all learned in this era of media spin, HOW you report the truth can make a big difference. Think, for instance, of how the media tend to uncritically report the words of politicians, big business types, and so on, without weighing what they say against actual reality. They're telling the truth--"George W. Bush said this today"--but they're doing so in a way that plays right into the spin, when they should be analyzing and contextualizing.

In the case of the "Cars" kafuffle and what will no doubt be the upcoming "Ratatouille" kafuffle, the problem is that you, Jim Hill, are uncritically reporting the attitudes and prejudices of people within the Walt Disney corporation and Hollywood at large, without spending any time considering whether these attitudes are actually justified. You talk about how the bigwigs get into a huge, um, urinating contest over their weekend grosses--and then you validate that by obsessing over whether a movie has the appearance of a hit or not. But this is something that only matters to a very small group of people at the top. Cars being the #2 grossing movie of 2006, and turning a big profit, should have qualified it as a hit, but because it didn't smash any records or pay off in the way that makes short-sighted executives drool, there was talk about how it was a "minor disappointment". And I'm absolutely sure that was the case, and that you were accurately reporting the facts, as you insisted over and over again, Jim.

But the problem is that this kind of thing affects both the stock market, and the people who make the decisions. And it is, quite frankly, stupid. It's exactly the kind of attitude that led to Disney shuttering their 2D department, even though it was still successful and profitable--the perception was that 2D wasn't "hip" any more. The assumptions mattered more than the hard numbers, and as a result, the artform of animation suffered a loss.

So when you report stuff like this, with this slant, you play into this foolish, ego-oriented, superficial perception of animation, WHICH CAN HAVE REAL, HARMFUL EFFECTS. Sure, Spiderman 3's record-shattering weekend makes a good soundbite, but no one here is seeing any of that money. What we are seeing is a movie that, frankly, sucks. Yet the reportage continues to hammer the amount of money it made. This is a distubing trend in movie-going in general, honestly. But Pixar has managed to produce solid hit after solid hit for years, so they've been insulated from it. Now they seem to be entering a new era in which their movies are "smaller" and perhaps a bit more experimental, and which will no doubt be rewarded with smaller (but still substantial) box office.

I fully expect the glitzy entertainment journalists to start talking about how Pixar has lost its "magic" because it doesn't clean up at the box office anymore, while ignoring the actual quality of the movies themselves. It would be a shame if you jumped on that bandwagon, Jim. This kind of thing does make a difference. And as a filmgoer, I'd rather watch a terrific movie that bombed than a thoroughly mediocre multimillion dollar smash...but Hollywood is moving more and more toward the latter, and the cultural watchdogs are letting it happen. Please don't be one of them, Jim.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 19:23:20 GMT

"In fact, considering how fast people have stoped going to Spiderman.... POTC could in the end double what that makes."

No way in hell, that would be over 600M. I'm guessing Spidey gets mid 300's and AWE upper 300's. Worldwide, both have a shot at a billion, I give pirates a bit of an edge there as well but not a huge one.

At this point, I think Potter or even Transformers (hate to admit it, but the trailer is one of the best I've seen in a long time, maybe even better than the Pirates trailer by summer popcorn movie standards) could give spidey and pirates a run for their money. Rat should do OK, but it's probably smart to manage expectations.

"An almost-apology for needlessly bashing a great and successful film."

It wasn't bashing it for not being successful, it was that it didn't meet what were perhaps overly high expectation. Pixar set the bar incredibly high at the box office, and it simply didn't clear that bar. I'd argue that artistically it didn't come close to Pixar's previous efforts either.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 19:25:04 GMT

"Cars being the #2 grossing movie of 2006"

That would be number three for that year, Night at the Museum passed it up.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 19:29:51 GMT

And #6 worldwide..

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 21:10:01 GMT

I have a feeling this movie will be smashed, though I'm hoping, and I'm not doubting that it will perform better then fantastic 4. Maybe this movie will perform modestly, while I'm expecting fantastic 4 to flop. I don't think to many people were happy with teh first one, and everything I've seen from the 2nd looks, how you say... stupid. So Disney will soon have something to brag about.

But honestly Surfs Up as well as Knocked up will likely do pretty modestly. (I'm thinking Blades of Glory type results) Knocked up will more then likely start off slow and pick up, with surfs up performing pretty moderately for awhile.

Spiderman has pretty much reached the end of it's domestic release, it won't make much more then 2 - 3 million per weekend, Shrek still has a week of 2 with a substantial box office income, as well as pirates. Pirates will more then likely take next weekend in the box office.

Then we get into Oceans 13. I'm not sure how well that will do, I suppose it will perform better then Knocked up as well as Surfs Up, but not to much better. Mr. Brooks comes out, that Dane Cook/Kevin Costner flick. It will likely flop or perform modestly at best.

Then we get to Ratatouille, which will have a weekend to enjoy itself, hopefully, but then the weekend after, I believe big giant robots come smashing in and Bruce Willis gets a triamphant 12 year return since the last time he uttered the phrase, "Yippe Ki yay mo...." on the silver screen. Both of those will perform pretty well, especially Transformers.

Ratatouille would have been far better off as a November release or August release after things begin to slow down. May/June/July of 2007 is definately shaping up to be one of the most competitive summers I've ever seen.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 21:56:39 GMT

"Spiderman has pretty much reached the end of it's domestic release, it won't make much more then 2 - 3 million per weekend, Shrek still has a week of 2 with a substantial box office income, as well as pirates. Pirates will more then likely take next weekend in the box office."

1) Spider-man has come far from ending its domestic run. It just had an $18m 4-day weekend ($14m 3-day). It still has quite a few good weekends left (ending its run at around $340m).

2) Similarly Shrek and Pirates have more than just a week or two left of good weekends, they have quite a few left (at least through the end of June and maybe early July).

3) Pirates will more than likely take next week? Even if it suffered an x-men 3 drop (which I just cannot imagine), it would still land a ~$45m second weekend. Should it take a SM3-style drop, it'll land ~$55m second weekend. Whether it does that or more, the new movies next weekend can't even hope to get that much.

4) If Surfs up does any better than Monster House.... I'll be pissed. :)

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 22:00:47 GMT

I watched a nine minute preview and I found Remy to be a charming and sympathetic character. HOWEVER...when he is running through the kitchen he is a freaking RAT!

The movie lost me then and there...although I will see it opening weekend.... All I could see was a filthy rat scurring in a kitchen. Hardly the stuff of fantasy.

The movie Valient could not recover from the Mother coughing up a worm scene. I fear a similar fate for Remy,

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 22:38:58 GMT

While my expectations for Ratatouille at the box office are low, I'm pretty confident in its Oscar chances. The only animated film I think it would have competition with would be A Bee Movie by Jerry Seinfeld, though that is all guesswork since nothing about that film has been released yet. In fact, I'm thinking that should have been another reason to release Ratatouille during the winter time. Seems academy voters have short memories. I thought Cars was superior to Happy Feet personally.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Tue, 29 May 2007 23:28:55 GMT

Perhaps the pirate movies would do better if they weren't so convoluted. It was difficult to keep up with the plot on number two and number three is getting the same rap on the Ebert & Roeper show now.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Wed, 30 May 2007 00:02:20 GMT

"Seems academy voters have short memories. I thought Cars was superior to Happy Feet personally."

Or perhaps was it just the Al Gore effect. Was it really a coincidence that the same year the Academy so called "went green" an environmentalist film won over a film about gas-emitting cars (and of course non-environmentalist Monster House)?

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Wed, 30 May 2007 00:35:18 GMT

So no one here is psychic, no one here can accurately predict the future, but we're gonna believe studio suits and so-called analysts are psychic and can accurately predict the future, and then measure actual events versus a psychic prediction? OOOOkay...

If the suits were that concerned about Pirates, they would have chopped the running time - it's not rocket science. If the suits were that concerned about Ratatouille, they would have had the publicity guns blazing. The publicity guns have not been out of the holster as far as I can tell. Where are the Disney Park exhibits, not to mention attractions? Why isn't Remy on the cover of every edition of Disney Adventures this year? Where are the Infomercials on ABC ? Disney Co has an abundance of publicity possibilities at their disposal, but so far there's been a touring inflatable slide, a trailer, and maybe something on the Disney Channel - I'm not sure since they've removed most of Disney off the Disney Channel. I mean, we're already at world's end - The Absent Minded Professor was on the Turner Classic Movie Channel yesterday !!

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Wed, 30 May 2007 02:47:29 GMT

So it would appear that even the mighty PIXAR is not immune to pushing a clunker so far into production that it has to be "saved", instead of pulling the plug and going with something with a more promising premise.

I wouldn't worry about PIXAR, though. They've done a great job in terms of equating their brand with quality. People will come just because it's a PIXAR film: they know it will be good. Of course, if they're disappointed with this one, then the next one might have a bit more difficulty.

= Poc,HBND,Herc . . .

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Wed, 30 May 2007 03:32:43 GMT

Now that you all mention it, "Ratatouille" really does seem like a holiday movie! At first, I couldn't quite put my finger on it, but I suddenly realized, it's the food! I mean, any movie that audiences can relate to Thanksgiving dinners and Christmas feasts is most certainly a holiday movie. And can you imagine all the neat product tie-ins like holiday recipe cook-books and gift w-rat-pping paper? Arghh! What a blown marketing opportunity! Plus, that ghostly chef hovering over Remy's shoulder even seems like one of Scrooge's Ghosts-of-Christmas!

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Wed, 30 May 2007 17:46:13 GMT

" I'm pretty confident in its Oscar chances. The only animated film I think it would have competition with would be A Bee Movie by Jerry Seinfeld,"

I believe the Simpson movie begs to differ. I really believe Simpsons will draw more domestically than any oher summer film, and I think it'll get the Oscar.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Wed, 30 May 2007 18:45:42 GMT

"I really believe Simpsons will draw more domestically than any oher summer film"

I really believe you've been smoking something. Many people think it will be the biggest thing ever, but I'd be shocked if it breaks $200 million. Why pay to see something to see something that's on every week for free? Movies based on TV shows, especially ones still on the air, have never done anything special.

I'm sure it will do better than the southpark movie, but that's really about it. Seriously, if it's popular enough to be the biggest film of the summer, why isn't the show getting bigger ratings? It's usually lucky to break top 25.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Wed, 30 May 2007 19:09:01 GMT

//I'm sure it will do better than the southpark movie, but that's really about it. Seriously, if it's popular enough to be the biggest film of the summer, why isn't the show getting bigger ratings? It's usually lucky to break top 25.//

The Simpsons, as a property, is still hugely popular.

The Simpsons, as a show, has dropped in popularity, as a large percentage of the audience simply doesn't think it's as good as it used to be.

I'm willing to wager that all the folks who can work a Simpsons quote into any conversation (and there's many), even if they no longer watch the show, they will see the flick.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Wed, 30 May 2007 19:41:15 GMT

I'm not saying the Simpsons movie will bomb, I just think it's ridiculous to suggest that it could be the biggest movie of the summer. Even if all the people who quote the simpsons go see it (which I doubt, I know I used to be a pretty big fan of the show but I would never see it in the theatre), does that add up to $350 million plus? No way. And I don't understand why, if a large percentage of the audience thinks it's not as good as it used to be, why that part of the audience that's not willing to spend a half hour on it for free would be willing to risk eight bucks on it. What reason is there to believe it would be much better than recent TV episodes?

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Thu, 31 May 2007 00:34:09 GMT

Even if the Simpsons Movie were to be the biggest film of the summer, I highly doubt it would take the Oscar. I'd be surprised if it was even nominated.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Thu, 31 May 2007 09:39:10 GMT

How many films this year qualify for animated? I think it might squeak in in they go for more than 3 nominees this year but I doubt it'll win. Paprika probably has better chance of being nominated.

Ratatouille: Because a rat cooking for you beats a grown man living as a rat and sleeping in your bed. :P Probably gonna see HP once, if it's on IMAX wherever I am but I'm far more excited about Ratatouille and Deathly Hallows.

That said, I wonder how much Ratatouille is being marketed to those otaku kids who love shows with big dreaming outsiders like Naruto. Ratatouille has the makings of a Shonen Jump manga.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Thu, 31 May 2007 16:57:11 GMT

Well, Ratatouille does seem more subdued than, say, Monsters Inc....if you look at the posters! It probably will have good WOM and pull in decent numbers, but maybe it won't attract audiences that like that pop culture humor that Shrek offers. I know that I'll be there on opening weekend.

As for POTC3 - no worries. If Disney has any pull with exhibitors they should keep the movie in theaters through August at least. I know quite a few people who want to see it but wanted to avoid waiting in lines on Memorial Day weekend. POTC has legs if Disney would help it.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 04:59:01 GMT

The Simpsons movie isn't going to win an Oscar. It wont have anything different from the last 18 years its been on...not quite oscar worthy. I do think it will do ok at box office. A lot of people who dont watch the show much anymore(like me) will go see it just because its an event.Its still the simpsons, its still funny.

As for Ratatouille, the preview makes it look stupid. 2 of my kids (11,8) weren't intersted by it and neither were me and my wife. My 5 year old thought it looked ok, but he likes anything animated. There's no "catch' in the preview that makes you excited to see it, kind of like Meet the Robinsons. That preview didnt excite anyone either. We may see it but with so much other stuff coming out, its towards the bottom of our list. Iron Giant and the Incredibles are both great films and having Brad Bird involved in this one is the big thing for me to see it, which is actually sad considering its Pixar and that used to be enough.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 11:19:31 GMT

Some of these comments are already driving me insane.

Jim tries to explain the movie industry to people and you burn him at the stake because you refuse to see the side of the story other than your own.

You're not industry insiders, you're fans, we get it. That doesn't mean the views, sensibilities and inner workings of the industry have no bearing on you.

Just because you see the performance of a movie differently than the industry doesn't mean their view of the same results is any less important. In fact, it's much more important than your own view as these are the people deciding what is available for you to watch.

So rather than fight Jim and fight the industry just accept what it is seeing and why it is reacting as it does. Learn about it, understand it, enjoy poking fun at it, but know that it's every bit as valid as your view and important for you to be aware of.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 11:21:22 GMT

I also doubt the Simpsons movie will be huge.

Ratings for The Simpsons has been declining, and most of the die-hard fans I know, the ones that work quotes into their daily conversations, stopped watching the TV show years ago.

The Simpsons are no longer what they were. The show has changed feel entirely. I can't tolerate any episodes after Season 9, and even Season 9 is half stinkers.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 11:33:07 GMT

Frankly, I liked the first "Ratatouille" trailer best - the one where he's talking to his dad and his friend walks up munching on god-knows-what. The new trailer, while clever, reveals so much that I feel like I've already seen the movie. I'm rooting for the rat, but I don't feel the compulsion to see this the way I did earlier Pixar movies. But I hope it succeeds...

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 21:37:20 GMT

What makes Simpsons the movie different than Simpsons the TV show is that the TV show is ... FREE.

There are alot of movies that remake TV shows. But how many movies are direct from a show? How many of these films are blockbusters? How many people went and saw the X-Files Movie? How about Serenity?

I just don't think that most people will shell out the $7 to $10 bucks to see this one when there is Transformers, Potter, Rat..., POTC3, Evan Almighty, etc, etc, etc.

The Simpsons Movie will make a killing alright.... but at the video store ... not the box office. Could end up on the top ten list of all time DVD sales. Thats about it. At the box office... I suspect it will do better than Rat. But come in about 5th behind everything else.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Sat, 02 Jun 2007 01:40:19 GMT

Ok, I missed out on the last three days, so I'm gonna give my reasoning behind what I said earlier.

-Brand Recognition- The Simpsons are one of the most famous/influential television shows of all time. All of the die-hards are gonna go out and see it, and alot of people are just going to see this movie. Everyone knows the Simpsons, is the best way I can break it down.

Quality- The flick's being written/Produced/Directed and run by the best of the best that The Simpsons has ever had, an all-star team of creators.

Anyway, listen I doubt it will be the number one film of the summer, but I think it could. But I will say one thing, there's NO CHANCE this movie isn't number 1 the weekend it debuts.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Sat, 02 Jun 2007 05:19:48 GMT

"The Simpsons are one of the most famous/influential television shows of all time."

Key words here are "one of".

I agree... I enjoy the Simpsons myself. But I believe that just as many people the world over are familiar with the name "Optimus Prime" as they are Bart or Homer Simpson.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Sat, 02 Jun 2007 17:10:21 GMT

And I think (and I'm a Transformers fan) that that's a ludicrous assertation.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 09:45:32 GMT

That's a heck of a backpedal, from biggest movie of the summer to winning opening weekend.

Regardless of which has more name recognition, I don't think anyone but the real life "comic book guys" expects Simpsons to make more than Transformers.

Back on topic, Pirates had a huge drop, about as big as Spidey 3's although both of the first two weekends are smaller. The legs everyone expected don't seem to be there, even with light competition on the second weekend. What seemed like the sure bet for #1 could end up at 4 or 5 for the summer. And if it really cost $300M, it may not break even domestically (although overseas grosses still seem strong enough to keep it profitable).

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 15:35:41 GMT

Oh, I still think it could be number one for the summer, and I whole-heartedly believe it will out-gross Bay's Transformers.

The #1 omment was aimed at someone above who said it wouldn't break he top 5.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 19:53:20 GMT

We'll see when it's released.

I'll be waiting with a heaping platter of crow for you.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Thu, 07 Jun 2007 02:52:17 GMT

I am shocked that POTC fell so rapidly.... and if it falls to fourth or fifth that will be something. Based on that .... I think that Potter is going to do even worse.

Here's what's interesting.... I have been talking with people at work about movies... everyone says they are "probably" going to see Transformers. I think they are downplaying it. I think everyone is giddy like school kids to see Transformers.

This is the first movie in many, many years to have something visually different than anything we have seen before. CGI is so common these days that we have forgotten what it’s like to truly see something new. Think T2, Jurassic Park, even Toy Story etc....

I know no-one wants to give Mr. Bay any credit. I don’t know why the industry back seat drivers are so hard on him.

But in any case.... what we are going to "see" in this movie is not Bay ... but the work of hundreds of people at ILM who will be at the top of their game... and in a position to remind the rest of us that there is still something to show that can inspire the next generation of dreamers. Whether or not the dialog sucks.

This is one of those films where even the people who normally don't care about special effects stop and take a look. That’s a blockbuster. The toys themselves took the world by storm back in the 80's.

With POTC down already.... consider this ... that perhaps in this petty world people can only afford one movie ticket this summer... and they chose Transformers.

Incidentally.... many of my friends at work didn't even know there was a Simpsons Movie coming. They only knew because of my screensaver.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 19:46:07 GMT

I laugh at this article now, because having seen Ratatouille last week, I am confident it will find a place in this crazy summer...it's original and wonderful...Brad did a great job in whatever salvaging he had to do. Oh, and I think RAT has a great chance to pass CARS' box office. POTC:AWE has shown great legs and it's going to reach $300 million easily.

re: Toon Tuesday : Is Disney now trying to manage box office expectations for "Ratatouille" ?

Jim Hill — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 13:32:26 GMT

Simpsons #1 for the summer? Nope.

Even top 5? Not even close.

Beat transformers? Not that one either.