Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 01:27:12 GMT

I'm not gonna get into the "Pixar bashing" thing, but may I just say that "The Simpsons Movie" shouldn't really be compares to kid's movies, because it's simply not one. So, I think to compare just cause they're both animated, as opposed to their content, is unfair.

That being said, I've seen the movie twice, am seeing it a third time tomorrow, and think it more than deserves the Oscar next spring.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 01:46:45 GMT

An interesting number comparison -

Second weekend of domestic release, percent drop from previous weekend:

Ratatouille dropped 36%, while Simpsons dropped a staggering 60%. The Simpsons would not appear to have similar staying power.

Too much $$$ spent promoting Ratatouille? Huh? Where was it spent, cause I didn't see it. Opening weekend numbers depend on brand familiarity - which Disney Co didn't establish for Ratatouille, but Simpsons had 20 years of - and marketing, which again Simpsons went gung ho on. It was impossible to miss the coverage of the 7-11's that became national Simpson ads, plus Burger King national ads. Disney Marketing put an inflatable slide on tour and said they just don't know how to market the movie - tanking Ratatouille's chances from the start. If they spent too much, there must have been some really nice executive parties that didn't raise any general public awareness.

Wonder if the analysts are asking about the licensing fees paid for the rapidly sinking Underdog movie, or the acquisition fees of Fox Family Channel - fees that were paid in cash, not stock. At least the suits sounded like they had answers ready this time, having to explain to a so-called analyst that some decisions require planning longer than three months out. Also nice to hear that Cars merchandise was performing somewhat adequately. Ratatouille merchandise would be selling too if any was displayed outside of the Disney Store. Disney Consumer products got WalMart to carry lots of Disney Fairies junk, but they couldn't talk the Mart into carrying one Ratatouille cooking set? Sounds like Disney Marketing isn't the only Disney division trying to tank this movie.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 02:18:28 GMT

Here are the funny facts:

1) Jim doesn't mention that The Simpsons Movie box office dropped around 65%. This would never slide with a Pixar movie. In fact Jim even stated after Rat's first weekend that it would probably slide around 50% because everything else was. So Jim speculates that Rat will probably have a large drop. It didn't. Then he ignores it when the Simpsons do.

2) Jim states that the Simpsons Movie has a good chance at catching Rat in 7-10 days. I'm no box office genius but I know that has no way of happening. More than likely mon-thurs Simpsons will make around 4 million per day for a total of around 140-145 million and probably around 15 milion for fri-sun for max 160 million. Add another 12 million for the next mon-thurs (which I don't think it will do) and you're still going to be 20 million short of Rat domestically.

3) Jim states in past articles that Walstreet will be worried if Rat doesn't do 200 Million, and now that it looks like it will, "Wallstreet" will worry because it won't meet Cars numbers.

4) Jim still hasn't given Cars full credit for the money it has brought in merchandise wise. Sure he quoted Disney stating it was the biggest merch movie since Lion King but never gives any numbers. Jim this movie was HUGE. Over 450 million worldwide in box office, big money on DVD and over a billion and a half already in merchandise with a new line of toys shown at Comic Con. It has another huge year ahead of it merch wise and all we ever here is the 240 million domestically. Money is money Jim and Cars is bringing in a lot of it.

5) Another Rat article? Didn't Underdog open over the weekend at a disappointing 3rd place and only $12 million total? That has to be disappointing those are Country Bear type numbers, but we get another Rat article.

I could list another five but what is the point. Heck I really shouldn't write at all because it's just another hit and comment that Jim is really looking for, but hey it gives me something to do, and it's fun to point out Jim's inconsistencies ;)

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 02:18:49 GMT

Wal-Mart had an end-cap display of toys for "Ratatouille," included carded action figures, smack and yak plush, an interactive sniffing Remy and a great board game takeoff of the old Mousetrap game set in a kitchen. The stuff sold out quickly and hasn't been replenished.

Maybe by the time the video is released, we'll see a second wave of "Ratatouille" merchadise. I don't think its merchandise will approach "Cars" -- but it's unlikely any Disney film is going to for many years to come. "Cars" is the new cash cow, replacing Mickey & gang, Pooh, the Princesses and Pirates. I'd even bet that "Transformers" isn't enjoying the same merchandising success as "Cars." (Anyone know where I can find a Tongue McQueen for retail?)

Pixar and Disney did err on the Ratatouille wine deal with Costco -- seems that it's against the law now to use cartoon characters to market wine. I think the wine industry was included with beer and tobacco since the days of Spuds McKenzie, the Hamm's Bear and the cartoon Camels are long gone.

Of course, the California wine industry couldn't have had anything to do with sounding the alarms since Disney-Pixar's "Ratatouille" deal was for French wine ... it doesn't matter that Ron and Diane Miller, Fess Parker and John Lasseter all operate wineries.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 03:40:13 GMT

I read a couple places that Disney and Pixar did not expect to beat Shrek the Third at the BO; this was before Shrek3 was even released. Given the $400+ Shrek 2 made, Disney/Pixar...hell even DW, knew Shrek 3 would end up in the $300s.. so yeah I doubt they are that shocked and/or broken up over it.

Let us also remember that the Simpsons Movie has been awaited for YEARS. And as I said in a previous comment section, the only thing it and Rat have in common is that they are animated.

Pixar is about telling great stories...its true. This is why Pixar is the number one animation studio in the world. I don't mean to piss off the artists at Pixar or in the animation industry (hell i am one of them) but the average joe doesn't go to a Pixar film to see amazing visuals...they go to see a great story. Pixar is known for telling great stories...the movie going public TRUSTS, that when they go to a Pixar film the story is going to be really good; the fact that they also sport amazing visuals is a plus.

This summer Pixar told another great story.....mission accomplished.

I get the feeling Jim was as giddy as a school girl writing this article..."I was SOOO right!!".....not really no. Listen to what Bob says about waiting until international BO rolls in. Did Rat disappoint domestic? Yeah a little......Did Pirates3 disappoint domestic? Yeah a little....but Bob is happy as a clam over Pirates3's numbers...now why is that....its not #1 for the summer...hell it might end up being #4, wasn't it projected to dominate the summer? Isn't that what Wall Street was expecting? Take a look at those worldwide numbers, $950 million...wowzers...

If anyone on Wall Street or anywhere else, thinks that every Pixar film is going to make $250+...they are drinking too much of the kool aid....

http://www.raymation.net

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 03:40:45 GMT

I think the real problem that Jim isn't looking at is Disney's utter failure to sell "the best reviewed movie of the year". Yes I know he wrote that article on how Disney didn't greenlight Ratatouille and therefore wasn't sure what to do with it but really that's just insane. You really mean to tell me that Disney can't sell a movie about an animated rodent? DISNEY?! Why don't I see any mention of all the marketing tie-ins that Disney used for the movie like the Simpsons and Shrek used? Probably because they're weren't any!

Compairing this movie to the Simpsons is entirely unfair as well AND unwise numerically. The Simpsons have had almost TWENTY years of televised buildup to that movie and one of the most brilliant marketing campaigns in history. Forget Pixar, it's Disney Marketing that really should be ashamed.

And why is Iger talking about the stiff competition in other countries when he obviously is ignoring the fact the company basically fed Remy to the wolves here in America?

Also Jim, considering I work in merchandising I can explain that Ratatouille's merchandise is selling out just fine thank you! Sure it may not be at the level of Cars but NEWSFLASH: Cars have always been popular toys since the automobile was invented. Please see wheels, hot. For the life of me I don't understand the whole "Ratatouille's merchandise is gonna sell disappointing numbers" claims when: a) You aren't looking at the numbers every day. b). You aren't IN THE STORES watching it sell out. and c). Obviously nobody claiming that Remy's plush wouldn't sell well has seen one yet because they're friggin' ADORABLE!

Also, way to completely miss the point of the movie Jim!!!

(As an aside: I have no idea how WALL-E is gonna be marketed. None. You want a movie in fiscal trouble...)

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 04:28:12 GMT

wow simpsons and ratatouille in the same story........ how ridiculous and desperate is jim getting.

get over jim the rat will reachthe 200million you thought would never reach and it will most likely keep going past that.

Then wait till the dvd comes out, it will sure be profitable

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 06:06:32 GMT

Not to pile on here, but this article is another head-scratcher.

Drawing conclusions about 2D animation from the Simpsons' performance is ridiculous. It's a PG13 rated movie based on a long-running TV show. It would be like saying the SouthPark movie revived 2D animation.

The problems with the math in the Simpsons' catching Rat in 7-10 days statement have already been pointed out.

Then there's the whole blaming Rat for the studio's less than overwhelming numbers in the quarter. Rat's promotional costs only became an issue when AWE came up a disappointment at the box office. It barely passed the first Pirates movie, never mind the 2nd. If AWE had brought in anything close to the revenue Iger and company had expected it to, they wouldn't be complaining about Rat now.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 09:06:32 GMT

I'm done with this website.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 09:16:25 GMT

I wonder what will be said when Rat wins the Academy Award for animiated feature this year.

I mean, really....it's GOTTA be the odds on favorite here. Unless something else stellar is slated for later this year (anyone??)...what's out there for competition? It may even be in the running for best picture, period.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 10:31:26 GMT

Won't spend too much time on explicitly pointing out the "unnecessary hating on Pixar" bit as that is getting redundant and obvious, although I will say that domestically, Pirates 3 has been just as big, if not bigger, disappointment than Ratatouille given its $300 million price tag. We'll see exactly how it goes after Rat is released world wide, but if both films end up tripling their production costs, I'd be interested to see whether Jim says both films were "disappointments," or if he'll continue to rip only into Ratatouille's totals.

And as curmudgeon said, what marketing? Seriously, if that marketing campaign made the company lose money, somebody in marketing needs to be fired.

Oh, and not to mention coming close to $200 million domestically already beats Jim's earlier estimates of $150M to $170M.

Anyway, here's just a couple more points to add to what the others have already said here.

Jim said:

>>> That said, this new Brad Bird film is still going to wind up earning around $40 million less than "Cars" did. Which (As Doug Mitchelson's question proved) is going to get Wall Street talking.

(Doug Mitchelson's question:

"I wanted to see if you felt the Pixar deal is tracking in-line with your acquisition budgets given "Ratatouille," which despite its critical success, is performing domestically a bit below the prior Pixar films. Thanks." <<<

First off, if you meant Doug Mitchelson's question will be "proving that Wall Street will be talking NEGATIVELY," I don't see it. It was a simple question, does Iger think it's on par even though it didn't earn as much as Cars? Iger said yes and gave his reasons (which seem fine to me).

How about Motley Fool? They're Wall Street, right? Here's their most recent article on the Mouse House:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/07/31/foolish-forecast-halt-disney.aspx

And this quote from a Fool:

"I'm a Disney shareholder, and a very happy one -- it's one of my best-performing holdings over the past year and a half. Iger gets pretty much all of the credit in my book, because he cleaned out a management team and corporate culture in shambles, installing capable leaders and creative visionaries in positions of high responsibility, and letting his new lieutenants loose to do their thing, their way."

Wall Street seems fine to me.

What I REALLY want to know is, did they show Bolt's previews in front of Underdog this weekend, or is there still no word about Bolt? How about Princess and the Frog? Something interesting like that instead of the same old "Pixar didn't make $7.4 billion dollars with that last movie; that Disney purchase was sooooo bad." If that's the route to go, why not talk about Disney's purchase of Club Penguin for $350M instead?

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 10:34:36 GMT

>Well, to be honest, the folks at Pixar already have their noses significantly out of joint over the fact that "Ratatouille" 's box office still lags behind that of "Shrek the Third."

This statement suggests that there exists someone in the world who actually thought Ratatouille was going to out-earn Shrek the Third. And there wasn't. So exactly where does this statement come from?

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 10:39:14 GMT

It will cement Rat as a strong library title. I think Paprika's the closest competitor but it lacks the clarity of Rat.

I imagine the Simpsons' "official" budget is on the lower end, but you do have to remember it's been in development almost as long as it's been on the air. It's been a much greater investment of time, money and brand-building- and I have to wonder just how much a windfall it ends up with when you consider that- or do those costs fall inside the tv production budget?

In terms of Rat merchandise, the Pez dispensers seem to the most common. It looks like the box stores didn't replenish (which means slow sales by the box store standard). I saw the full Mattel line before the movie opened at KB, but since then... it's been traces of it at places like LAX, the Times Square Toys R Us (which seems to stock more due to its size), and Disneyland. I hadn't seen another trace of their animatronic Remy until I hit Disneyland last week and did I snatch that up! :D I do wonder how much of this is Mattel, because they really have distribution issues in the US.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 11:11:17 GMT

I think the bashers here are really missing the point.

The financial community is quite fickle, and is focused on numbers and numbers alone, specifically revenue and earnings numbers and how they relate to expenses (the notorious "return on investment" or ROI concept). I do think that the Pixar investment was worth it because it brought a lot of intangibles that Disney had lost in the Eisner era, but the investment community will be very hard on this for years. Right now they're seeing an overall upswing in Disney, but watch what happens when there's a miss on the earnings sheet. And the fact that 12 of the 25 analysts have a hold (well, one has a sell - there's one in every crowd) means that that the jury's still out on the company. I'm optimistic myself on them - I think Iger's doing a good job.

Rattouille was a great movie, but that's no guarantee of box office success. And Wall Street wants to see that ROI on each movie go up. That's all Jim's calling out here. I've read all these Monday morning articles, and I find his analysis very good on that aspect.

(And as for the Pixar folks wanting to beat "Shrek the Third" - that's how it goes - you can have a friendly or unfriendly rivalry with your competition, but it's still a rivalry. I work for a big organization in the software world that always wants to beat the competition, even when you know it's impossible to do that. If I worked for Pixar I'd want to beat my competition at the box office, too. At least they had a way better story and film than "Shrek the Third", even if they didn't get the box office win.)

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 11:45:52 GMT

frauen1 - I think you're missing the "bashers'" points (I'm assuming a basher is one who is getting on Jim here for this).

I understand the business community is fickle, but it's now been multiple articles on the Pixar acquisition being questionable based on their most recent film's numbers - which by the way, will still make the company a <i>profit</i>. In fact, Pixar has been 8 for 8 in making movies that make a profit, and not just a measly $10 million profit or something, but <i>hundreds</i> of millions - which you would think IS a guarantee of box office success.

I have no problem with Jim writing articles that aren't all disneyana and giving bad inside scoop on Pixar, even if it was about Andrew Stanton and Brad Bird getting into a fight or something. That's interesting stuff. What I do have a problem with is Jim seeming to focus only on the negative when it comes to Pixar numbers over and over again, even after he previously pointed out that the "lowered" expectations for Ratatouille was at around $150M to $170M after the opening weekend; and thus far it's already broken that. If anything it should show investors the lasting power of the brand which will hopefully translate to WDAS's movies in the near future.

As this site is a popular source of Disney news, having Jim being so sour on Pixar can spread around the media like wildfire, and who knows, might even affect shareholders' thoughts. Take the article Jim wrote about a Disney executive hoping for a Pixar backlash:

http://jimhillmedia.com/blogs/jim_hill/archive/2007/06/25/monday-mouse-watch-could-underwhelming-box-office-receipts-for-ratatouille-really-spell-trouble-for-disney-pixar-officials.aspx

This one made the rounds on IMDB and other news sites, but they didn't say Disney "Executives" were hoping Pixar's film would flounder, they made it sound like Disney "Artists." Since Jim doesn't reveal his sources, we won't know for sure, but for all we know it could be one disgruntled Eisner-era holdover. Very different from someone like say, Glen Keane.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see an article like this circulated and shown as "Disney CEO Devastated at Ratatouille's Catastrophic Flop at the Box Office" somewhere on the net. Why wouldn't a stock holder want to sell after seeing quite a few of those every other week?

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 11:46:07 GMT

"Well, the huge grosses that "The Simpsons Movie" has been racking up since its July 27th release are now being seen as proof positive that there is actually an audience out there that's hungry for traditional animation. Which really bodes well for Disney's "Enchanted" 's release this Thanksgiving as well as for "The Princess and the Frog" come 2009".

Ugh!!! Why are we STILL debating the merits of traditional animation vs. CGI? I mean, haven't we discussed this at great length? Don't they get that it doesn't matter which medium is used, just so long as it's done well, has a good story, or at least characters we want to see and entertain us?

I mean, how many CGI movies have been released in the last few years that were less than successful (breaking more than $200 million)? I'm thinking at least a dozen, maybe more.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 11:47:19 GMT

Why is "Simpsons" doing better than "Ratatouille"?

1 Eighteen years of marketing.

2 Consistently funny characters that a huge audience knows & loves.

3 Great word of mouth.

4 A title that everyone cam pronounce without a phonetic guide.

5 Formula plot (SPOILER! SKIP THIS NEXT SENTENCE IF YOU HAVEN"T SEE SIMPSON'S): Man loses family. Fights to get them back. Big action finish. Sounds like "The Incrdibles", eh?

Don't misunderstand me. I loved "Rataouille", every frame of it, I drooled over. But I have to concede that if a studio is going to produce a film for that kind of cash, there needs to be a little more "lowest common denominator" factor ...if they expect it to be a blockbuster.

"Ratatouille" spoilers ahead:

"Rat" doesn't fit into a mold. It's kind of a buddy movie, but not really. Remy doesn't have a clear "want" early in the film. he just spends a long time not fitting in, then he stumbles into his calling. The villain (the chef, not the food critic) struggles more against Linguini than Remy, so his goals are split. And the climax is a man eating vegetable stew.

Again... I loved every minute of it! It was fresh storytelling and great characters with depth. Plus... there hasn't been a drunk character in a Disney film since, what... Sir Hiss in "Robin Hood"?

As an audience, we all have a tendency to pigeon hole our plots. Good Hollywood execs know this. Blockbusters need to be a little simpler. "This is the good guy, this is the bad guy, Now they are going to fight." or "Boy meets girl. They are separated by: a) fueding families, b) he's trying to put her bookstore out of business, c) he think's she's falling in love with his pirate friend." Etc. etc... They can be complex stories, no doubt, but not complicated.

The trouble is, as I stated before, budget to return ratio. Rat's BO is very respectful... if the budget was under 30-40 million. But it looked like Pixar spent four times what Fox did (and that's a very conservative guess).

I have two teen-age kids (boy and a girl) that were raised on Pixar films. Yet, during the weeks leading up to "Ratatouille", they were both a little blasé about seeing it. (When they did see it, they liked it). But they were both waiting with heightened anticipation for the release of "Simpsons".

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 12:28:39 GMT

The only thing that needs to be said about the life of 2d, related to the Simpsons, was:

"Drawing conclusions about 2D animation from the Simpsons' performance is ridiculous. It's a PG13 rated movie based on a long-running TV show. It would be like saying the SouthPark movie revived 2D animation."

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 12:29:41 GMT

Ratatouille just passed the total U.S. domestic box office of the Academy award Best Picture of 2000, Ridley Scott's epic "Gladiator". So, I am impressed by this little CGI effort that Jim Hill did not believe in.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 12:34:27 GMT

>>> Why is "Simpsons" doing better than "Ratatouille"? <<<

Forgot to mention that after its massive drop this weekend, The Simpsons Movie will probably struggle just to catch up to Rat's domestic gross at this point.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 13:03:55 GMT

Hey LiverGap,

You are quite correct, the game isn't over. (But then again, that's why I said "is doing" rather than "will do".)

I have no idea where B.O. totals will wind up on these two films, but just looking at cost to return ratio, Simpsons will definitely look better to the accountants... short run anyway.

Long term? I have no idea. "Ratatouille" is a solid story, but "Simpsons" has an 18 year track record of good performance. Both studios should come out pretty well.

But I think Orljustin is right: "The Simpson's" success as a 2-D film has no bearing on Disney's 2-D future at all. It does show, however, that audiences aren't turned off by 2-D. They just really want to be entertained. So if Disney can entertain us without stirring up too much racial controversy with "TPATF", AND not spend more than they can show a decent profit margin from, their future looks good!

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 13:24:00 GMT

This article is a bit stunning. While the Simpson's has done well, it was clearly a flash in the pan phenomenon. The Simpson's dropped over 65% from last weekend and dropped over 74% from last week.

The movie is frontloaded... people rushed out to see it, and now it is dropping like a stone. RAT is going to finish with a $200 million domestic take and I have no idea who this source is who actually thinks the Simpson's is going to surpass that... it will struggle to make $180 million.

Yancy

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 13:28:56 GMT

I can not believe I actually registered to let you know I am getting soooooooo tired of these articles. Are Boredway and Pixarbashing the only tricks you can do nowadays? Where have those fun insight articles gone? Where's the love for the ART of animation? Really depressing Jimbo...

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 13:52:35 GMT

Well, I'm buying it. Of course the investment industry is going to look at Pixar as "the #1 animation studio with the great stories and bladiebladieda" and to the competition it is up against. And of course they want Disney to beat the competition, or otherwise, why would they be even investing in Disney. And if Disney can't beat stupid competition as "Shrek the Third" (no matter how much name recognition it had, it's fucking DISNEY and PIXAR, isn't that enough?!), why even bother to invest?

Walt Disney Co. should have done their homework. The movie needed better marketing, a different release date and a global same-day release. "Ratatouille" needed a hype, and there was none. In the past the name "Pixar" was a hype-certainty, but today...

(Oh, and Jim... I was all happy and stuff because FINALLY an article about Disney animators... And then you go on and on about Pixar?! Come on, I wanna hear something about Disney for a change. The original Disney Animation.)

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 14:02:33 GMT

Jim, I work for a Wall Street brokerage firm and have a couple of comments:

In reference to your last paragraph, that is absolutely NOT what it means. What that paragraph in the earnings release meant was that the majority of Rataouille's marketing costs were in Q2, where Pirates grossed most of it's money, while, since Ratattouile was released on June 29, the bulk of it's earnings wouldn't be until Q3. It in no way means extra marketing money was needed for Ratatouille beyond what was normal or that it was eating into Pirates earnings directly. This was timing and normal course of business.

Also, Wall Street had expected Rataouille to do about $200 mil and were reasonably happy with that. The take of most analysts is that that domestic gross and ancillary revenues (i.e. DVD's, etc.), the movie will still make a healthy profit.

The comments about are absoultely correct about The Simpsons. Box office analysts are pegging the Simpsons final gross somewhere in the high $100's, which will be short of Ratatouille.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 14:03:32 GMT

>>"Now please note that '... if "Ratatouille" ends up hitting the 200 million plus number' comment. This is in reference to a statement that Iger made earlier in this same conference call, where he said that ..."<<

Good grief! He said "IF!"

He meant "WHEN it hits the 200 million plus number!!"

One little slip like that can cause the Great Pumpkin to pass you by!

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:04:01 GMT

empoor -

>>> And if Disney can't beat stupid competition as "Shrek the Third" (no matter how much name recognition it had, it's fucking DISNEY and PIXAR, isn't that enough?!), why even bother to invest? <<<

Seems to me that Disney wants to become that long-term investment company rather than the roller-coaster-type of investment. Sure, Shrek is making tons of money, but at what cost? Shrek the Third lost a lot of critical acclaim, and I know a lot of people who are tired of Shrek after this last movie. DW is killing their golden goose. So why invest in Disney? Because they're still making money while getting on the right track and working on improving their brand's quality.

>>> (Oh, and Jim... I was all happy and stuff because FINALLY an article about Disney animators... And then you go on and on about Pixar?! Come on, I wanna hear something about Disney for a change. The original Disney Animation.) <<<

I agree on WDAS projects, I've been hoping for some news about Enchanted which is coming up, or even about Bolt, if it's still on schedule or how it's starting to look. But I think one thing you'll have to accept is that Disney and Pixar are on the same team now, and that hearing about Pixar _is_ hearing about Disney (I personally couldn't be happier as I was raised on Disney and am glad to see Pixar is not just a renegade animation studio that can leave Disney anytime).

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:12:13 GMT

"TexMex2 said:

I wonder what will be said when Rat wins the Academy Award for animiated feature this year.

Sorry my friend, but like I said earlier, I think that award is going straight to the Simpsons.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:13:08 GMT

I get the whole long-term investment thing, but I was specifically talking about investing in the animation department (sorry, didn't specify in comment).

Of course hearing about Pixar is hearing about Disney, but, like you also hinted at, there is too little news about upcoming WDFA projects. That can be a good thing (there is nothing wrong with them, everything is going to be fine) or a bad thing (people are not interested, the projects are dead, etc.).

(Oh, I said "original" :) Which is my way to separate WDFA from Pixar.)

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:31:37 GMT

I’m not sure why this site takes such a negative and biased approach to PIXAR, the only division of Disney animation to provide quality original products. The rest of Disney’s animation products can barely be sold in the close-out bins. Disney and JHM need to quit bashing and start learning.

Now Ratatouille’s box office is being compared to the Simpsons. This comparison is just manipulatively naïve.

First, look at the marketing Campaigns. The Simpsons had an absolutely relentless marketing campaign based on over 18 years of customer loyalty. Overall it was brilliant and far exceeds anything attempted for the Ratatouille release.

The Simpsons had constant on screens plugs on the FOX network programming for over a month preceding the release. During there release week there were almost 4 plugs per hour of programming.

In the San Francisco area, theatres had life-size display models s in theatre lobbies since early January. These were expense Plastic displays worthy of Disneyland, compared to the cardboard displays of Ratatouille.

The tie-in with the 7-11’s, which included turning several stores into Quickie Marts was brilliant and should have embarrassed the Disney marketing teams, in its simplicity and positive press that it received.

The popularity of the Simpsons does not mean 2D animation is still widely accepted. It means that people enjoy the Simpson… that’s it. From the very beginning, The Simpsons has been the antithesis of traditional animation, similar to South Park, the style reflects the message. By the way, expect to see an American Dad release for next summer.

So I hope Disney and JHM stop comparing apples and oranges and start to recognize the quality of this PIXAR project. Examine it, and then hope other divisions of Disney can duplicate its success.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:33:11 GMT

WDWTITAN24 - I'm reading buzz that if any animated film can steal the Oscar from Ratatouille, it might be Persepolis. Who knows. I don't think Rat's going to run away with the award either, though I do think it's the one to beat.

empoor - Gotcha, I misunderstood you, I thought you were separating Pixar from Disney.

Yeah, I thought we'd be seeing some sort of teaser trailer for Bolt by now (released with Underdog, at least that's what Wikipedia was saying) but I guess there was nothing.

Mickey21 - interesting perspective coming from someone who actually works on Wall Street. That's what I naturally just assumed anyway as I haven't read anything overly cynical about the Disney-Pixar merger from anywhere else except from this site.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:34:04 GMT

FACT: Ratatouille will have a huge international take. The Simpsons will not.

FACT: Although good entertainment. The Simpsons is bearly animation as an art from. Its not meant to be. Its a medium for sitcom comedy and social/political/religious satire. Animation wise ... It's just slightly more than a moving comic strip. When looking at numbers ... I would compare it more to "Knocked Up" than any Pixar film.

FACT: Ratatouille will win Golden Globe, maybe an Oscar (or two). The Simpsons may win an MTV or Teen Choice Movie Award.

OPINION (But maybe FACT): Both movies are good. Both were better than Shrek 3. Both were better than Fantastic Four and Spiderman 3.

FACT: Skrek 3 and Spiderman 3 - Both lousy movies... both in the top three for the year. Go figure.

CONDSLUSION: If you bring the movie out early in the summer .... you get the jump on all of these people who only go to the movies one or twice a summer. Even if the movie ... sucks.

There is no justice when it comes to what the average american will dish out $10 to see.

Its THAT simple.

As far as the other big movies.

Transformers will start to move up now that its released in the UK, Japan, Germany, etc.

Pirates will remain on top. Potter will come in just under.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:37:44 GMT

I find this whole story sort of odd. First and foremost, I would fully expect The Simpsons Movie to outperform Rat. I mean it's only got a 20 year history and one of the largest built-in audiences of any non-sequel movie in history?

Also, why would anyone draw any conclusions about 2D animation from this movie's success (or lack thereof, for that matter). The guy running the show for Disney's animation department these days (i.e. Lasseter) has gone on record many times saying that he doesn't believe the medium is really relevant to a movie's success (a concept that I wholeheartedly agree with, I might add). Do they really need it "proven" that a 2D movie can make money? Stupid ...

To me this sort of seems like a story that Jim wrote as a kind of misdirection. "This story is about how Disney is happy that The Simpsons is doing well because it means there's still an audience for 2D animation ... oh and by the way Ratatouille is underperforming and everyone is disappointed and Disney paid too much for Pixar and I was right and you all are wrong!"

Kinda lame, if you ask me.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:39:22 GMT

Let it go, man, let it go...

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:50:24 GMT

frauen1,

Cars budget: 120 million budget, domestic gross 244 million.

Rat: 90 million budget, domestic gross (projected) 200 million.

ROI on Cars: 103%

ROI on Rat: 122%

So, what's the problem?

Cars probably made more for the company because of merch, yes. But % of profit on investment? Rat actually looks like it's going to win out, if the reported budget is correct.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 15:56:15 GMT

WDWTITAN24,

I'll eat my Krusty the Clown costume wrapped around an Kwiki-Mart hot dog and chase it with a flat Buzz Cola if The Simpsons beats Rat. It's good, a GREAT Simpson's movie IMHO, but the Academy is NOT going to give it an Oscar.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 16:09:12 GMT

give it up Jim. No one agrees with you. Or cares. Stick with secret pictures of the utiladors and "insider" stories on new rides or attractions that never were.

Keep up these articles and you wont have a fanbase to write those great articles you used to be famous in the Disney community for. Seriously.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 16:31:27 GMT

@LiverGap:

Yeah, that's what I thought too! Instead we got a "National Treasure 2" trailer, which looks like "National Treasure: Flying High on Crack" or "National Treasure: At World's End" or something like that. TOO MUCH IN ONE MOVIE. All Jerry Bruckheimer films have that.

Makes me wonder. I think "Bolt" isn't even slightly close to ready and the project will be moved up. This will be a costly movie for Disney.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 16:33:02 GMT

I've been lurking at this sight for many months, and have read with interest all of Jim's articles regarding Pixar and, more specifically, the performance of Cars and Ratatouille.

Most of the time I read his article and all your comments with bemusement... I tend to disagree with Jim, and agree with many of you who make very valid points.

I won't add much to this - as its already been defended quite well in the comments section, but, Jim, I'm sorry but The Simpson's Movie is not going to "blow right past" the Rat at the box office. Either you wrote your article before getting preliminary box office numbers for the weekend, or you just need to do a little more research before you write your articles.

As has been posted ad naseum, The Simpson's Movie dropped 65% from the prior weekend (and dropped even more if you take into account certain actual numbers that have been trickling in this afternoon). Its Friday to Friday drop was over 70%. That's 'Hulk'-like numbers. If you follow the prognosticators over at Box Office Mojo - and these are fanboys and guys who research this stuff every day and analyze it every which way... most are saying that the maximum Simpson's will get to is $190 million. Maximum. Many are saying it may only reach $160 - $170 million.

I have a lot of problems with your article... but when you show a certain amount of swagger by making ridiculously unresearched, irresponsible comments like this - I had to set the record straight.

As a close follower of weekly box office myself, my pre-summer hope was that 'Rat' would make at least $200 million domestically. With an unusual concept, a difficult title, a competitive marketplace, and little name recognition among the voice cast, I knew it would be highly unlikely that 'Rat' would make as much as 'Cars'. If you read many of the online box office prognosticators pre-summer - they anticipated the same. Anyone who felt that 'Rat' would be considered a failure if it didn't reach at least the box office of 'Cars' is clearly misinformed, or just hoping for another excuse to write a series of heavily trafficked articles.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 16:39:02 GMT

Question:

Wouldn't this be a bad thing from a theme park stand point? Universal is developing for both the Simpsons and Harry Potter market. The fact that nothing Disney has put out lately can hold up to the Harry Potter franchise (except Pirates), then Simpsons comes out and performs well only furthers the fact the they really need a plan to combat Universal for the next few years.

The market is obviously there for these franchises, and though the movies may be a point for them it remains to be seen if the Mouse can retaliate in the theme parks. And yet the only things they're working on are refurbs and Pixar-related attractions. I think that's why Jim is harping on Pixar - the fact that it's not just animation but the brand as a whole that Disney is trying to latch on to.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 16:48:02 GMT

TexMex- Rat's budget has been reported to be $150 million on boxofficemojo.com. Maybe because a lot of the production under Pinkava had to be scrapped? Who knows. Either way, it should still turn a profit, no worries there.

Empoor - I'd start worrying about the movie being pushed up if Bolt's trailer is still not shown when Enchanted comes out in November (or at the very worst, when National Treasure: Flying High on Crack comes out in December ;p ). But maybe all this being kept in the dark is due to Pixar's influence (I remember Jim writing an article about WDAS being more secretive now).

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 18:15:22 GMT

So typical.

Underdog bombs, both at the box office and with critics, and yet Jim still harps on about Ratatouille.

Pixar makes a fantastic movie that received the best reviews of 2007 and performed strongly at the box office, and Jim complains about its so-called failure ad nauseam. Disney makes a godawful movie that was despised by the critics (at least those that managed to see it since it wasn't screened for them) and did horribly at the box office, yet it doesn't get a single mention in Jim's newest post.

Your bias is absolutely sickening, Jim.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 18:41:35 GMT

Let's see.....

PotC: AWE

Budget: $300 mil.

Domestic: $307 mil.

Profit: $7 mil.

Jim Hill's Analysis: Box Office Success!

Ratatouille

Budget: $150 mil.

Domestic: $188 mil.

Profit: $38 mil.

Jim Hill's Analysis: Box Office Trouble

Who's eating whose profits???

Did I miss something?

Anybody out there who can sit Jim down and talk some sense into him? Please.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 18:51:27 GMT

Good golly, just what sort of marketing campaign was Disney running that required extra dollars? The only major marketing partner I saw was Intel-- which highlighted how the technical "chefs" at Pixar needed the "ingredients" of Intel to make the film. Other than that, there was the expected kiddie toys, but nothing else high-profile, no fast-food promos, no big network TV push on ABC/Radio Disney/ESPN/various Disney properties, nothing related to the Steve Jobs-owned iPhone launch, NADA. Heads oughta roll at Disney Marketing for the job they did on this magnificent movie.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 18:59:32 GMT

(@captainhook91: studios get around 55%, not 100% of the box office gross.)

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 19:41:48 GMT

empoor said:

(@captainhook91: studios get around 55%, not 100% of the box office gross.)

Actually theaters get the largest share of the profits during the first couple weeks of release. Studios get about 80%...the other 20% goes to theaters. This is why studios LOVE it when a movie has a HUGE opening weekend....

After the first couple weeks that ratio shifts... for more info check out this dated CNN/Money article

http://money.cnn.com/2002/03/08/smbusiness/q_movies/

The bottom line is: if a movie costs $100 mil and makes $100 mil it has NOT broken even....the general rule of thumb is that a movie needs to make 2 to 3 times its cost to be truely profitable.......

Again in the case of Pirates3 there was NO WAY Pirates was going to be profitable on domestic BO alone...it would need to do $600+

http://www.raymation.net

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 20:40:26 GMT

Thanks empoor & somepirateguy for the comments.

I think regardless of the exact %... once you add in how much marketing was spent on both of those movies (Rat / PotC:AWE) and I'd guess that PotC got WAAYYYY more marketing $ spent on it than RAT did, that PotC is more of a bust than RAT.

And... seeing as how it barely beat the 1st movie (by only $2 mil) and got crushed by the 2nd movie (by $116 mil)... why are we not hearing countless stories about PotC and which exec gets fired first???

If you hold that movie up to the same standards that Wall Street (ahem: Jim and disgruntled Disney employees) does, PotC and MOST movies would be dismal failures.

By the way, is Jim even aware that Underdog is an ACTUAL failure? $11.5 mil. on opening weekend! Nobody I know is planning on seeing it (or renting it for that matter... let alone buying the thing on dvd).

Right now, RAT sits at #7 $ wise for 2007. Artistically I think a case could be made for a top 3 showing. Can someone define 'bad', 'disappointment', or 'failure' to either Jim or myself?

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 21:39:34 GMT

Having worked for a theater, I can tell you our deal with the studios was 10 cents to the dollar. Theaters make majority of their profit on the concession stand. It doesn't matter if it's opening week or not, it was still 10 cents to the dollar for us.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 21:40:32 GMT

I'd refer up to what Mickey21 posted earlier, as he actually works at Wall Street and refutes some of this "Wall Street is disappointed with Pixar's movie's performance" business and helps show what many of us are thinking, that a near-$200 million performance at the box office for Ratatouille is actually closer to a *gasp* success than a failure.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 22:40:56 GMT

Well...Shrek 3 made a ton of money, but is now in the second run theaters (where, thanks to my wife's insistence, I finally saw it, much to my regret as I had not planned on seeing it at all.), whereas the Rat is still pulling in first run greenbacks and where I suspect it will continue to do so for more weeks than S3 did.

As for the Simpsons, I was never a fan, so it is easy to understand why it has no legs. It's opening B.O. was due to an existing fan base, whose interest waned significantly after seeing it once. At least among the more financially well-off fans. I suspect it may do well in the second run, "cheap-seat" theaters, whose typical patrons are probably the type that make up the bulk of Simpsons fans.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 00:15:01 GMT

Coming soon on JHM:

Jim uses BO figures from 1945 to prove that the executives at Warner Bros. were complete morons for paying a whopping $1 million to Leon Schlesinger to acquire "Looney Tunes & Merrie Melodies".

The evidence? Given that the wartime cartoon shorts in 1945 failed to produce the domestic box-office numbers reached in peacetime 1941, this represented one of those "negative trends" upon which Wall Street tends to frown. Since "perception is reality" on the Street, the unavoidable conclusion is that Warner Bros. should have avoided Bugs Bunny like the plague.

Jim will then propose that a wiser move would have been purchasing Ub Iwerks' studios in the early 30's, since the early success of "Flip the Frog" was a clear indication of the strong audience for black-and-white, tick-tocky, "rubber hose" animation...

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 00:26:07 GMT

I'd also like to see a comment explaining how this is possible if the Pixar acquisition was not a necessary move for Disney:

Chicken Little (Domestic): $135,386,665

"This New Brad Bird Film" (Domestic as of 8/5 and counting): $188,246,213

In the world of sports, the appropriate chant for this would be: "SCORE-BOARD!!!"

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 02:00:03 GMT

^Don't forget Meet the Robinsons $97 million intake.

There's better stories to focus on than the non-existent danger from Pixar's slight dip in the box office. What about that Alvin and the Chipmunk trailer that we've just finished losing our lunches from? Why can't you do anything on the original Chipmunks film? The same one some of us still cares about?

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 03:22:03 GMT

Clutching for straws is what he's doing.

Sorry Jim, you've run out of them.

You've been out for months.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 09:09:26 GMT

Livergap,

On the Rat budget....I've seen a wide range of reported numbers (much like Cars had during release). That's ranged from 90 mill to 150 mill. I used the low end because it's the one I've seen most often used.

I THINK the difference may be in the inclusion of marketing costs. I THINK that Box office mojo numbers includes that as part of their production budget numbers, while other sources do not (because it's not really part of production, per se). But honestly, I'm not sure why the numbers reported are so widely different.

Also FYI: That production budget on box office mojo is relatively recent. If you look back at the first set of articles on the film, there was a similar discussion....and there was a mention that box office mojo had no numbers up at the time...though that number IS in the exact range I've seen used elsewhere.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 16:40:21 GMT

How stupid does someone have to be to not see that Pixar is one of the most profitable wings of the Disney film company, second only to the Pirates empire? This article is rubbish, and so are these investors.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 05:33:14 GMT

Some good comments have been made about what it really takes for a film to reach profitability. Just to add a bit more, a movie like AWE is going to have HUGE payouts to people like Johnny Depp and Jerry Bruckheimer and his production company. These numbers are usually not published and are therefore usually not counted in production budget estimates.

The actors in Ratatouille do not command the kind of "% of the gross" and guaranteed payments that people like Depp and Bruckheimer do. Also, since Rat is entirely produced by Disney, there's no production company to share revenue with.

A movie like AWE probably does need to gross 3 times its production budget to breakeven, but a movie like Rat can have a much greater ROI% without hitting the 3x mark.

Sure, Wall Street is watching. But like Roz in Monsters Inc, Wall Street is ALLLLWAYS WATCHING. Rat is performing about as expected, and there is no concern at this point.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 14:53:15 GMT

The Simpsons probably will make less in overall profit that the Rat. Fox pulled out all the stops for marketing, compared to Disney. The second weekend drop shows that the first weekend open was front loaded and there's not much repeat viewing - the die hards are just waiting for the DVD.

The Simpsons may have been helped by the built in fanbase, but many of these fans have quit watching the past couple years due to the worsening nature of the writing and the feeling among some is that the movie is 5 years too late and the effort put forth on the movie would have been better spent on the series.

Rat is an original story, something in short supply this summer. It's also a family friendly story that will do well DVD sales wise and that both parents and kids could go to, both audiences enjoy it for its appeals to both age groups. This quality is something that's absent among many family movies, but Pixar and Disney traditionally did well at capturing.

Both movies will make back their production and marketing costs after the DVDs are released.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 09:23:07 GMT

If anyone has seen The Simpsons movie they would recognize A LOT of CGI work. It wasn't all 2D.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 11:56:44 GMT

"If anyone has seen The Simpsons movie they would recognize A LOT of CGI work. It wasn't all 2D."

The point isn't about the use of computers. Disney's been doing that since, what, The Rescuers? The Great Mouse Detective? It's somewhere around there. They had full-blown, obviously CGI imagry as far back as "Beauty and the Beast".

The point is that the main visual style of classic Disney and "The Simpsons" is 2D imagry, not that they don't use CGI.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 13:15:15 GMT

These articles just get more desperate and pathetic.

Really Jim, nobody's forcing you to write an article everyday. If you got nothin' we'd rather see you take a day off than keep beating a dead horse just for the sake of filler (and hits?).

Check this out, they estimate Simpsons ending up with around $190 domestic (where Ratatouille is already and still making money):

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/080607.htm

The big surprise for simpsons for me is that it is doing extremely well internationally. It has already made more overseas with a few big countries to go (although it may have equally terrible legs overseas). I'm genuinely surprised this article is appearing now. After the first weekend, I could see predicting 200M or more, but the second weekend seems to have killed any hopes of that happening.

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but it should be:

Even after the huge opening weekend for Simpsons and what some felt was "disappointing" for Ratatouille, the rat still had a bigger second weekend than Simpsons did.

And to those who said that Simpsons would be the biggest movie of the summer (or the year...was that you, WDWTITAN?), enjoy your big plate of crow. We all knew it would do well, but only someone blinded by fanboyism would think it could make 300M and more. (and there's no way in hell Simpsons will get the oscar...unless some other amazing film comes from out of the blue, it's all Ratatouille)

It has been an interesting summer at the box office. Transformers ended up doing extremely well, despite those who said a "toy" movie wouldn't bring in audiences. And Potter is outpacing all the earlier films. I'd say both still have a shot at passing Pirates if not going even higher.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 19:43:40 GMT

After 13 days in release 'Simpsons' is only 5 million ahead of 'Ratatouille' after 13 days - so it went from a 27 million dollar lead after the first weekend to only a 5 million dollar lead after 13 days. I think it will be a close race after all.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Fri, 10 Aug 2007 12:16:39 GMT

I don't know where you got a 5M difference from, Simpsons is ahead about 17M at this point (138 versus 121). But Remy has been gaining every day.

Simpsons was ahead for the first four days of release. But starting the fifth day (tuesday), Rataouille has beat it every single day since then. And with the 50-60% drops for Simpsons versus under 40% for Remy, that gap will shrink faster and faster. Ratatouille will be ahead on the daily comparison in the third or fourth week.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Fri, 10 Aug 2007 18:03:45 GMT

Minderbinder you appear to be right - I can't remember where I went to compare the numbers, but I probably did something wrong. My apologies for that.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 07:40:29 GMT

I don't know if Iger means this or if its corporate spin, but I believe it's true either way:

"We also believe that these are long-term products, meaning they will deliver value for the company, for a long period of time. What we have learned, when you put the Pixar name or the Disney name on a high quality animated feature, it delivers results or shareholder value for decades to come. Witness how we did recently with bringing 'Peter Pan' out in the marketplace or 'Little Mermaid.' We think 'Ratatouille,' because it is the best reviewed film of the year, and it is as good as it is, will drive that type of long-term value."

On the "no merchandising cavalry coming" comment - I have searched my local Wal*Mart, K-mart and Target (in Santa Maria, CA) for "Ratatouille" toys. This is the first animated film in years for which I have done this. I can't find any. I've seen books and Band-aids, and I bought a calendar, but no toys. Jim, you're probably thinking, "oh, they must not have sold very well." Ah, but I think perhaps Disney's merchandising people just thought nobody would want to buy adorable rats, and decided to hold back on this one. Or is this mysterious Ratatouille toy void affecting only my town? (I'll probably try Toys R' Us next.)

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 23:48:02 GMT

According to JIm Hill The Simpson Movie is "on track to blow right past the $188.2 million that "Ratatouille" has earned to date [Aug. 5] during its stateside run..."

As of Sunday and its 24th day of release, The Simpson Movie's gross is

BEHIND that of Ratatouille on its 24th day ($165,271,443 vs. $165,519,955). In other words, Ratatouile made up a $27million deficit by having stronger staying power.

With bigger drops, and the end of summer, The Simpson Movie will NOT beat Ratatouille in the domestic box office. It's doubtful it'll even reach that $188.2 million figure.

I'm waiting for Jim Hill's retraction. I know I'll wait FOREVER.

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Wed, 05 Sep 2007 06:26:16 GMT

Question... this article originally said The Simpsons should blow past Rat in 7-10 days I believe. (That is referenced in a couple of comments above, one from me and one from Mickey-Hal).

The article now says 3 weeks, not 7-10 days. Why was it changed?

re: Monday Mouse Watch : Why all the dough that "The Simpsons Movie" is earning is making Disney & Pixar executives say "D'oh !"

Jim Hill — Wed, 05 Sep 2007 06:26:29 GMT

Question... this article originally said The Simpsons should blow past Rat in 7-10 days I believe. (That is referenced in a couple of comments above, one from me and one from Mickey-Hal).

The article now says 3 weeks, not 7-10 days. Why was it changed?