No major surprise, really.

As I said in an earlier article, we've become a Paris Hilton-Britney Spears nation, and Shrek caters to that. Pixar doesn't. No cross-dressing jokes, no farts and burps simply for the sake of farting and burping. No endless pop-culture referencing.

It's not what draws the 15-35 year olds in.

On the other hand, Disney is showing quite a bit of confidence now, and regardless it should make an absolute killing on DVD.

Well. I am a little surprised...looking back, we can see that "Ratatouille" has just cleared the "Chicken Little" opening weekend by about seven million! If memory serves me, "Chicken" was mocked for its non Pixar-like, pedestrian numbers. Huh...very interesting.

"Me personally, I have to admit that I don't share Viane's optimism. In a summer where virtually every major studio release has seen ticket sales fall off by more than 55 - 65 % over its second weekend in release, I find it extremely hard to believe that "Ratatouille" going to be the one movie that bucks that trend. Becoming the very first film of the summer to actually develop some legs."

Really Jim, how about a little movie called "Knocked Up".  Some pretty darn good legs there.

And Jim if you know how Brad Bird made a movie critic proof maybe you ought to go into film making because not to many movies get 95% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes movie reviews.

I think Ratatouille will do good numbers and have good legs during a very competitive summer.  It probably won't break 200 million but will probably reach somewhere in the $175 Million range and should do fairly well overseas and will probably become Disney's second biggest movie of the year.  This great movie will also be a shoe in for the Best Animated Oscar unless Bee Movie really knocks peoples socks off but from what I've seen so far I doubt it.

If you haven't seen this movie go see it.  It's beautifully animated and extremely well crafted.  You just don't get many movies like this anymore.  Sadly we only hear about the money end of things for the first weekend and quality movies just don't matter anymore to most people.  However, these are the movies that people watch for generations and bring the long time memories and long term profits.

Jim, I actually quite like your site and (unlike many commenters here) feel your criticisms and observations of Disney -- and Pixar -- are usually quite valid and surprisingly insightful.  May I ask one favor, though?  Could you start using commas?  Your half-clauses are amusing at first, but they get a little wearying.  I offer this as constructive, friendly criticism, not as a "slam."  You've got a lot of great things to say, but it is very possible to write them in a way that is a little more gramatically correct ... and, perhaps, even easier to read.  I know, I know -- it's your style.  But it can be overbearing!

Congrats on getting Viane on the phone, by the way.  Clearly, he's a guy who's working overtime to put SOME sort of positive spin on this!  It's not as if he's wholly unaware that a teenaged wizard is about to storm movie screens with a movie that's getting very positive early reviews ...

Oh, yeah, there's that robot movie, too.  Nah, kids won't like that one.

Seriously. I think this film has the potential to get some good legs.

I don't really mind how it does in theaters, even though I'm sure Disney is pretty interested.

Honestly. This is now my favorite movie EVER. It was amazing, inspiring, I loved every bit of it. I seriously cannot wait for it to come out on DVD.

When it comes to classics, Pixar can make em! As for Shrek, it might make the company money at the moment, but in a few years, it'll all be forgotten, it won't be a timeless tale like that of RAtatouille, which is an amazing film.

I can see my kids watching it 15 years from now, just as I watched Pinochio and all the other great Disney classics.

I thank Pixar, for making another Classic film, to last forever, because they seriously did make it.

and I lvoe it! wooooo!

Well I have to say, after having seen the movie, if it doesn't do well,

then that says almost nothing about Pixar's quality declining.

It's an incredibly fun movie, brilliant in just about EVERY way, and it advances

their art to new heights. It just may not be the first or second choice of

the young crowd. It might, but it might not. Hard to know. Do I care?

Yes, but only in how it's interpreted by the likes of The Wall Street Journal

and JHM, etc. Opening numbers are important, and great and all. Yes, I agree.

But let's face it, if any studio released Citizen Kane, or Gone with the Wind,

and didn't meet opening numbers, would it really mean that the film

(and, more to the point, the filmMAKERS) were off their game? No, of course not.

Numbers mean a lot, but they don't tell a complete story about the value of

the company (and the people) who make the movies, nor do they say anything

valuable about the movies themselves. They tell tales of corporations, stock prices,

huge egos, etc., but nothing about art or beauty, or craftsmanship or real long lasting

value. They are necessary evils, in this very costly business, and the only positive

thing huge opening weekend numbers do is help the people who made the film

actually make another one.

Opening weekend numbers are the responsibility of the marketing department.

Marketing for this movie was very weak. The theory we got was marketing wasn't in on approving the movie before it started production, so they just couldn't explain to the producers not to make this "unmarketable" movie.

As much as I dislike the modern movie-going experience, I went on Saturday to see it. As in, "if you only see one movie this summer..." Here's my review - "wow". Here's my spoiler - the kids were ok with hoardes of rats streaming across the screen, but if Peter O'Toole spoke a few lines - start the waterworks.  By Sunday night, I formulated my own rough marketing campaign:

"It's the Year of a Million Dreams at Disney Parks worldwide" (yes, I agree it's annoying but hang on) "What's your dream? An unlimited fastpass? A night in the castle?  Meet Remy. He has a dream. Remy wants to be a master chef. Only problem is - Remy is a rat. See Remy make his dream come true in Disney Pixar's newest film, Ratatouille - now only in theaters. And make your dreams come true at a Disney theme park. Who knows? You and Remy might have more in common than you think." cue the music

Perfect? no.  Does it explain what the movie's about and tie in to a current marketing theme? well, um yeah. That was less than 24 hours after seeing the movie. Maybe I could come up with something better if I had a year and a half, and I don't know - was getting Paid!!!

Marketing heads should roll. There was a lot of $$$ spent this year having Beyonce roll around in a tea cup, and Scarlett Johansen sprint in a ballgown with little or no return to show for it. Sme of that money could have been used to advertise Remy if they really wanted bigger opening numbers. Problem is, I don't think the suits want Pixar to do all that well. Maybe Pixar can get some marketing guys from Apple - they seemed to cause a little stir this past weekend over a product that's also hard to describe.

I saw Ratatouille on Friday and absolutely LOVED LOVED LOVED it like no other movie I've seen this summer. So much charm, so much heart! For the life of me, I still don't understand why this wasn't a holiday release. I would think any movie that features good cooking and gourmet food would be a natural fit for the holidays. When I think of summer cooking, I think of barbecues, and that just isn't what Ratatouille has in mind.

ratatouille has got to be the best reviewed movie of the year and the word of mouth should help it.

with that sid according to news outlets and wallstreet, they have declared that Pixar has another hit in there hand with an 8 out of 8.   That is all that matters.  The movie still needs to open overseas and strangely enough the movie is the highest seller in pirated dvd's internationally.  So will see whether that will hurt it or help it since according to news media the dvd's are of very low quality and all they have done is spread good word about the movie.

The first FIFTEEN reviews on metacritic gave this 100 out of 100.  I have NEVER seen this before.  And these are not quote  whores (New York Times, Chicago Tribune, Wall Street Journal, Salon, etc.).  

Major studios often accept that movies slated to win Best Picture at the Oscars may or may not make $300M.  Sure, they want them to do good... but if a decent profit is turned and you can say you produced "a film for the ages" that also counts for something.  I suspect Disney may be thinking this with Ratatouille... they've made a profitable movie that average folks and film students will still be watching 30 years from now.  Can anyone say the same for the Transformers?

"See Remy make his dream come true in Disney Pixar's newest film, Ratatouille - now only in theaters. And make your dreams come true at a Disney theme park. Who knows? You and Remy might have more in common than you think."

I think some of the posters at JHM like Curmedgeon have come up with better ideas than those Disney marketing "whizzes"!!

I know someone else brought this up before, but since Steve Jobs is involved with both Pixar AND Apple, couldnt he do some tie-ins? After all, "Ratatouille" came out the same Friday as the iPhone. Couldn't the two companies have gotten "Ratatouille" clips on during iPhone commercials, demonstrating its multimedia capabilities like trailer-downloading? They had a commercial showing a dog skateboarding to showcase YouTube on iPhone, why not movies? Or better yet, include that 9-minute clip on every iPhone as a marketing gimmick. Sony included a copy of "Spider-Man 2" with all their initial PSP sales, why couldn't iPhone do that to show off their video features? EGAD, Disney totally dropped the ball on marketing this amazing flick! Shame on you!

I'm actually quite happy that the movie is #1, regardless if its Pixar's "worst box office earner". Even "Live Free or Die Hard" couldn't stop Pixar from making another film that would reach #1.

We all knew this was coming ... oh, well.

Yes, the opening box office figures are important and the story that the tally didn't meet lowered projections is one that several parties will pursue -- some with more vigor than others.

Still, I wonder how many will examine in depth the big picture? How many will talk about the huge box office plunges most films are taking in their subsequent weeks? How many films have failed to live up to their hype in the first week. And, in this case, was it a lack of hype that hurt "Ratatouille" in its first week? How many of those number-crunchers questioning the idea that Disney's purchase of Pixar was a mistake will have seen "Ratatouille" before writing their analysis?

Jim can be skeptical of the notion that this film will have legs -- but I have a little more faith in the marketplace, positive word of mouth and that 95 percent or so "fresh" rating at rotten tomatoes. Still, when you're talking about box office, there's one heck of a lot of variables in the mix -- including the quality of the film, the date of its release, its marketing campaign, the pre-release buzz and on and on.

In addition, part of the problem "Ratatouille" may be facing comes from the fact that Brad Bird and team worked their butts off to meet the original release date. The film wasn't in the can and ready to be screened to critics,  the media and corporate marketing partners until a bit later than the folks at Buena Vista publicity might have liked.

I decided to call my local theater to get a sense of the situation here. "Ratatouille" is playing on two screens as is "Live Free or Die" while "Evan Almighty" is still playing on three. The other top releases -- "Sicko," "Fantastic 4," "A Mighty Heart," "Nancy Drew," "Surf's Up," "Knocked Up," "Oceans 13," "Knocked Up" "PotC 3" and "Shrek the Third" were all playing on single screens.

Of the total of 16 chances to see "Ratatouille" on Friday and Saturday ... 14 played to houses at least 75 percent full and 8 were considered sold out. Those figures paint a fairly positive story -- and I know this is one film parents and adults will be talking about.

Who knows how all this is going to change with "Transformers" and "Harry Potter" hit the megaplexes? ... But I do believe -- in the long haul -- "Ratatouille" will easily recoup its costs and earn a rightful position as a COMMERCIAL and CRITICAL hit. I think it will do well in North America and might ever surpass the international box office of "Cars."

Ironically, I don't think it's going to become the financial success of "Cars," because I'm simply having too much trouble finding some of those dang Mattel "Cars" diecast characters! "Cars" licensing probably will make Disney/Pixar more money than any other property/character licensing except for the soon-to-be "Toy Story" trilogy.

Finally, to all of you who have seen and enjoyed the film, talk it up. Tell your extended family members, your friends, neighbors and coworkers what a great time you had at "Ratatouille." Hollywood, not just Disney, needs to be making more movies of this quality -- movies with strong stories and beautiful pictures.

Getting one film right is awfully hard. Doing it eight times in a row is pretty damn amazing. Don't let some suits or people rooting for John Lasseter and Co. gain any ground. After that last, dark decade of Eisner's rule, it's important to see creativity reign again at the Disney empire.

No surprise, but legs or not, I'm not expecting "Ratatouille" to do blockbuster numbers.

Oh, and "best reviewed movie of the year"? Obviously you mean "best reviewed wide release movie of the year" :) Because there are better reviewed movies out there now (not a lot, I admit).

(Oh, and I think nothing can beat "Away From Her" as being the best movie of the year, but I haven't seen "Rat" yet.)

@ la_resistance28:

They actually did in a slim version. Even in all the instruction videos there are hints towards "Ratatouille." There has been subtle marketing on Apple.com and all.

Why wouldn't this have legs? Every other Pixar movie, and indeed most animated movies, period, tend to have much stronger legs than the live-action smash-and-grab blockbusters. That's how Cars made it to the #2 spot last year (which you insisted didn't count and was being ignored by the Disney people--so why, Jim, are you suddenly acknowledging that Ratatouille will make money over the long haul?)

A few people have commented elsewhere that it's always the LAST movie that affects the current one. So Cars, Pixar's first real disappointment, may have led to a lack of interest for this movie. However, Ratatouille has a major advantage over Cars: it's a tremendous movie, and the people who have seen it seem to love it. I think Viane knows what he's talking about. In fact I'm going to predict that Ratatouille makes almost as much money on monday and tuesday as it did on saturday and sunday--this is a big moviegoing week.

By the way, I love the title of the article: "It's too early to write off Ratatouille!" Really, Jim? Three days after the movie opens is too early to write it off? Thanks for the revelation!

I saw Ratatouille on opening night .... Although by far the best movie I have seen this year (in any genre), I didn't find it as truly breakthrough and original as the Incredibles.

Still ... this is the first movie I have seen Pixar make that truly feels like the Disney classics. It's a brilliant movie .... so what if the younger kids in the theater were bored and noisy... so what if the movie doesn't make its numbers.

In the past month I have seen ... Spiderman3, Shrek 3, POTC3, Evan Almighty, Die Hard4, and Fantastic Four. Ratatouille is the best movie of them all .... I say so friggen what if it doesn't make opening numbers.

And for that matter even though CARS was considered the least satisfying of the PIXAR movies, I recall still saying it was one of the best movies of last summer as well.

Pixar = quality entertainment = original content = cutting edge animation = heart = masterpiece. Bottom line.

Now that that is out of the way ....

Someone mentioned that all of the so called blockbusters this year have had a drop of 40% to 60% after the first week.

I would like to speculate as to why this is. ... Someone else said it earlier ... It’s that little ROBOT movie.

I'm afraid people just don't understand this one.... maybe it’s been so long since we've seen it (Titanic 1997).

But Transformers is the big one.... I’m talking the sleep in tents the night before, cover of TIME, Newsweek and Rolling Stone, take your girlfriend, take your grandma, seen it 5 times in a row kind of big one.

People have been saving their money for this one.... think about it....  it’s the only logical reason that Pirates isn't raking in monumental numbers. Ratatouille quite frankly doesn't stand a chance.

I would say that the Rat has word of mouth going for it ... but I am afraid that Transformers is going to have the word “phenomenon” attached to it before the summer is over. I don't care what you think of Michael Bay.

Jim very well might be right, but I hope he isn't. I saw this movie yesterday, and I adored it. I thought everything about it was fantastic, and I will see it at least once more. And I will be telling others how much I enjoyed it.

I think the movies this summer that had the big drop-offs in business are the ones that had built-in appeal but then underwhelmed the people who saw them, resulting in bad word of mouth. "Ratatouille" is the opposite; various things about it might have given people an unfavorable impression, but when people see it, they love it. I think if anytihng can buck the drop-off trend, "Ratatouille" is it.

I saw it yesterday and I agree with everyone who said ... it's cute and charming. It didn't blow my socks off like Cars did, but it was a good little film.

I seriously doubt it's going to be a big blockbuster, though. It's just not that kind of film. You know the entire time I was thinking to myself, "This feels like an indie film."

And it did ... it was really odd in a way. I'm not used to having that feeling from an animated film. It wasn't bad .... just ... different. In a good way, though. I'm just not sure it's going to resonate with kids the way Pixar's prior films have. I think they have to hope to draw the grown-ups back in for multiple screenings, because I'm not sure the kiddies are going to be screaming to go back.

I hope Pixar hasn't misjudged its audience here ... this film, Wall-E ... they look a lot more like adult fare to me.

Enjoy good movies like this while they last. There will come a time when cute movies like this, give way to only fart/burp Shrekesque comedies. Because god forbid children should be made to sit in their seats and pay attention to a movie, instead of using the babysitting teqnique of rolling to the next dumb joke.

What a superb movie though. Having saw pirates so many times, and the other movies I saw, I never experienced children-wise what I experienced in our theater though. Children, literally RUNNING up  and down the stairs. Yelling things out constantly. I know its a kids movie, but there were children around us who sat well behaved, and didnt move. Minor gripe tho.

I actually watched The Incredibles before I saw Ratatouille, and I think Rat was by far better. Definitly in my pool of favorite movies.

We saw Rat Saturday (6pm) and the theater wasn't packed, but wasn't empty either.   Myself, my wife and my son all thought it was good (even very good), but we didn't looooove it as a lot of people here seem to. In fact, we all thought Cars was a better movie.   Considering my wife and son are not huge fans of Cars (one of my favorite movies) that says a lot.

It does seem that we are int he minority here, but then again I was i the minority when it came to Cars and Chicken Little.

Transformers is going to add an interesting dynamic.  I grew up with transformer toys.  However, I have a 9 year old son now.  he wants to see it, but we are holding off to get a better idea of what is in the movie.  

Looking at some of the weather models for the Northeast, we are looking at rain 7/4, 7/5 and 7/6 and that may really play into whether or not this movie has legs.  You're on vacation, it's raining, the kids are driving you nuts and Rat is getting great reviews.  Time to get out of the house/hotel room and head to the movies for a couple of hours.

It's an excellent movie, and word of mouth will keep it going.  If I'm Disney, I'm not panicing at all.  

I enjoyed Rat far more than Nemo, Bug's Life, or even the Incredibles.  It's as good as Monsters Inc or Toy Story.  Heaven knows I love to criticize Disney, but this is a solid story.  It will do well.

I'm afraid the Rat is going to have a hard time at the box office in the weeks to come. Transformers, Harry Potter, the Simpsons...the competition is going to be killer.

And there's another thing...the Rat is a pleasant little fellow in a pleasant little film...but, while that film is better than Cars, it's not the equal of Toy Story or Monsters Inc., and that's what it needed to be.

Too bad...

LOVED the movie.  Pixar does it again.  Wall Street can just kiss my (bleep).  If the so-called experts are too short sighted to understand the Pixar purchase was the best thing Disney could do for itself and its quality, then pray they don't start influencing the Mouse House into doing things for the almighty profit again, this time taking Pixar down with it.  Ugh.

That said, I doubt the movie reaches blockbuster status and it will be lucky to cross the $180 million threshold, what with all the summer competition coming up.  If it drops by 50% this weekend (which it most likely will), it should be considered a success.  I agree with whoever said Transformers will be the phenomenon of the summer...  though I'm surprised it's only getting around 70% on the tomatometer right now.  Which is good, because if that movie has any depth beyond the surely insane action scenes, Rat probably wouldn't have much hope.  

I think it would be easier to develop legs if there weren't any other kiddie-fare coming out.  But I know quite a few people ready to take their 5-8 year olds to see Transformers, which will probably have better word of mouth with the kids than Ratatouille.  

"Mommy, I wanna see the esploding robots again pleeeeeeeease."

"Aw honey, we already saw that twice.  How about Ratatouille?  That looks like a really goo..."

"Eeeew, no like the rats.  Wanna see robot 'splosions AGAIN!"

*sigh*

I think the Harry Potter opening may not have as much effect as some people think. I am not on a "schedule" when it comes to seeing movies, and I doubt that most people are. I will see both these movies, probably within two weeks of each other, because they are of great interest to me. They may well be the only movies I see this year, but I will see them because I want to, not because there opening dates are sufficiently separated.

I think that Jim's missing one key part of the summer. Knocked up.  Knocked up was the best-reviewed wide release of the summer, and it's the only film to have gained legs.  In such a competitive summer, the trailers blend together and all we have to work with is word of mouth.  That's exactly what made Knocked Up a hit, and I think it can do the same for Ratatouille.  It also means repeat viewings. I saw Ratatouille during the sneak preview, and I saw it again this past weekend with people I recommended it to.  I did the same for Knocked Up.  I saw it opening weekend, and then saw it again.   It's great to see that quality was actually rewarded with Knocked Up. Let's hope this seemingly archaic concept continues with Ratatouille.

"But let's face it, if any studio released Citizen Kane, or Gone with the Wind, and didn't meet opening numbers, would it really mean that the film (and, more to the point, the filmMAKERS) were off their game? No, of course not. Numbers mean a lot, but they don't tell a complete story about the value of the company (and the people) who make the movies,"

Actually, numbers are the full value to those putting the money in. And if they are not taking the money back, their opinion is what matters. There will always be prestige pieces, but not for the cost of a CGI film.

And yes, 3 days is a good time to reflect upon how a movie is doing and if it should be written off. Legs are increasingly rare, especially this time of year when theaters are particularly crowded.

On the other hand, theaters like keeping at least one kid's film sitting around, and the calendar is looking good for Pixar in that regard.

I have no reason to doubt this movie will have legs. Sure, few films do, but those that manage are often high profile animated films.

This movie is on my short list for the holidays...  I've been impressed with the visuals from the trailers, and the reviews all are extremely heartening.  I hope that Ratatouille does have 'legs'..

Even though this movie, according to Jim, wasn't made for a Buena Vista Pictures/Disney release, did anyone notice the very Disney like theme in this film?

The reviewer in the Chicago Sun-Times put it this way... "pursue the dreams with all the gusto you can"....

"If you can dream it, you can do it'....   Where have we heard this before?  

Even if this movie originally wasn't going to be released by Disney, the team at Pixar certainly channeled one of the strongest themes that we as consumers of Disney products see at the parks, etc...,

just my .02c.

jedonat

So Walt, What do you think about Ratatouille's number versus Shrek's numbers?

"I am not influenced by the techniques or fashions of any other motion picture company."  - Walt Disney

Walt, what do you think about Ratatouille aiming for a more adult audience?

"Your dead if you aim only for kids. Adults are only kids grown up, anyway."  - Walt Disney

Many people say that a movie about a Rat cooking is putting people off.  What do you think about that Walt?

"All cartoon characters and fables must be exaggeration, caricatures. It is the very nature of fantasy and fable."  - Walt Disney

What do you think about the tough competition Ratatouille faces, Mr. Disney?

"I have been up against tough competition all my life. I wouldn't know how to get along without it." - Walt Disney

Many peole say that Ratatouille is a disappointment because it failed to live up to previous opening weekends.  How do you feel about Ratatouille's box office?

"You reach a point where you don't work for money." - Walt Disney

So Walt, you're saying you don't want your movies to make money?

"People look at me in many ways. They've said, 'The guy has no regard for money.' That is not true. I have had regard for money. It depends on who's saying that. Some people worship money as something you've got to have piled up in a big pile somewhere. I've only thought about money in one way, and that is to do something with it. I don't think there's a thing I own that I will ever get the benefit of except through doing things with it. I don't even want the dividends from the stock in the studio, because the government's going to take it away. I'd rather have that in (the company) working..."  - Walt Disney

How about that for "Perspective"?

It beat Live Free or Die Hard

After watching this film in various stages over the past year or so, it was nice to sit in the multiplex like a "real person" and see the movie with fresh eyes.

Damn, it's good! Clearly the best thing Pixar has done since "Toy Story." And, I'm hardly a fan boy having worked there some years ago.

As far as the numbers? Who cares. We didn't give a rat's behind when our movie "The Jungle Book" opened back in 1967, and that seems to have turned out okay.

"In fact, tomorrow the site will be running a piece about the extremely clever way that Mr. Bird made his latest film virtually critic-proof..."

Ummm, you mean by making the movie "good?"

Yeapers 3 days after release IS too early to right off Rat; haven't some of us being saying "look to the big picture" for days now?  The thing to remember with these other summer films.....when you make 100+ million in three days you have no place to go but down...and most likely fast.  Spiderman made about 40% of its current take in its inital opening weekend.....wowie.

If Rat takes a 60% plunge next weekend, there may be cause to worry, but I would be VERY surprised if that happened.

This summer has been blockbuster o rama....with more on the way.  It is WAY to early to declare the summers winners/losers......

http://www.raymation.net

brresler said:

"I think that Jim's missing one key part of the summer. Knocked up.  Knocked up was the best-reviewed wide release of the summer, and it's the only film to have gained legs.  In such a competitive summer, the trailers blend together and all we have to work with is word of mouth.  That's exactly what made Knocked Up a hit, and I think it can do the same for Ratatouille.  It also means repeat viewings. I saw Ratatouille during the sneak preview, and I saw it again this past weekend with people I recommended it to.  I did the same for Knocked Up.  I saw it opening weekend, and then saw it again.   It's great to see that quality was actually rewarded with Knocked Up. Let's hope this seemingly archaic concept continues with Ratatouille."

I agree completely with this assessment. Films like "Knocked Up" and, in previous years, "Little Miss Sunshine", "My Big Fat Greek Wedding" and of course, "Napoleon Dynamite" have all done great business that lasted all through their run through word of mouth, not Opening Weekend Box Office. I believe "Ratatouille" will do the same, building momentum as word of mouth travels on just how wonderful a film it is. Also, as Brresler so rightly points out, "Ratatouille" is likely to do well from repeat viewings. I'm certainly planning on seeing it at least once, maybe twice more while it's still in the theatres. These days, that is a very rare feat for a movie to be so good that I'd eagerly want to see it again.

Pixar films typically make 20%-25% of their total BO in the opening weekend while most blockbuster films make 30%-35%. If it does the same sort of performance as Cars, which was a much worse reviewed film and had worse word of mouth, then Ratatouille will end up making somewhere around $200 million. The interesting thing to note is that Jim's numbers listed per-screen-averages, but were actually per-theater-averages. In fact, Cars opened in 3,985 theaters with about 7,000 screens, while Ratatouille opened in 3,940 theaters but with only 5,800 screens. Comparing the actual per-screen-averages shows that Ratatouille was only slightly behind Cars. I don't have screen counts for any of the other Pixar movies, but it appears that Ratatouille just wasn't as widely available as previous Pixar films. I think that is a good sign that it will have legs since not everyone was able to see it on the opening weekend.

I saw Rataouille on Saturday. Imo, it was the best Disney-Pixar film to date. It's a shame that it hasn't been all that popular... but as Jim said, the best ad for the film is really the film itself.

Tech Guy ... Amen, brother! Great post!

Jewalker ... I suspect what you say is true, especially upon hearing and reading reports of several soldout screenings of "Ratatouille" this past weekend. I know "Shrek the Third" and "PotC 3" both OPENED on four screens at our local 16-megaplex while "Ratatouille" opened on two.

Still, if what you say is true Jewalker, I'm disappointed that Viane didn't stress that point in his interview with Jim.

I've always thought it was PER SCREEN AVERAGE, not per theater average and now I'm wondering if there's been some sort of switch. I think PER SCREEN AVERAGE should be the norm -- it's certainly part of the story -- because some theaters will have "Ratatouille" on single screens, while others 16-screen megaplexes and larger might be showing it on two, three or four screens.

If Hollywood has changed the formula that might explain in part the wild declines two and three weeks into a film's run when across the country the number of screens showing the film plunge in individual theaters -- from four to one for "PotC 3" and "Shrek the Third" for example.

The films might be playing in the same number of multiplexes but certainly not on the same number of screens. If, across the country, the chance of seeing the film is reduced by 30 or 40 percent, then I'm not surprised that the blockbuster films are dropping off by 50 to 60 percent in week two, three or four. If it's playing on half the number of screens, I think that's a very different take on the PER SCREEN AVERAGE story.

Finally, I found many adults this weeked where talking about "Sicko." I heard them discussing the film simply based on what they were hearing and reading in the media. I suspect this film will have legs and so will "Ratatouille."

I'm seeing "Sicko" today. But if it's true that "laughter is the best medicine," I know I'll want to see "Ratatouille" again after being depressed by the woes in this all-too-real world.

Hahaha, what an awesome interview, TechGuy! Reminds me of all those fake interviews that Stephen Colbert does on his show piecing together clips of responses from other interviews. Hilarious!

I have young nieces and nephews (my own are now on the back side of being a teenager.) We had a family gathering this weekend and I was reminded of something that gets a bit overlooked - not all (maybe even not many) families with young children are interested in making sure they see the new movie the opening weekend. My nieces and nephews will all see the movie but at a time that it makes sense for the whole family.

The other thing to note, Die Hard only did about $1,000,000 more over 5 days than Ratatouille did in 3 days.

I went to see both Die Hard and Rat on Saturday with my wife, and we enjoyed both movies! Die Hard was an fun thrill ride, and Rat was a wonderful piece of CGI story telling that made me forget that I was really watching a CGI movie. There was nothing bad about this movie, and I hope that people will bring their families to see it, again and again...

That said, I don't know if word of mouth is going to help or hurt. The show that I saw was full of kids, tons and tons of them in fact. The major problem was that during the movie, the kids got restless, as many do anyways, and some got loud and some had to be taken out. The point is, what type of review is that parent going to pass on to the next? Will it be positive, blaming the kid, or will it be that the movie is just too slow and the kids weren't entertained?

I hope it can get legs and run quick with them. With Transformers looming, I hope that it does good box office as an alternative to that much flashier SFX filled movie. I knoe that I am pumped for Transformers, but I will be pushing for Ratatouille to do good this week!

I'm wondering if this is another one of those self-fulfilling prophecy type of things.  I'm reading nothing but negative articles headlined "Pixar not performing as well," and hidden in the article is how it is the best reviewed movie of the year.  Will people just see the headlines and think, "Oh, it must not be that good?"  

Many people say that a movie about a Rat cooking is putting people off.  What do you think about that Walt?

"All cartoon characters and fables must be exaggeration, caricatures. It is the very nature of fantasy and fable."  - Walt Disney

But Walt still knew that realistic rats are unappealing.  His movies were still made in good taste.  Which is why he made Mickey more human like and less rat like, ie: a caricature, which the rats in Ratatouille are too far away from, ie: too "ratty".  I doubt if Walt was alive this would've been approved byy him.

"I know I'll want to see "Ratatouille" again after being depressed by the woes in this all-too-real world."

Worked for me when the SpongeBob Movie was out. :)

Alfalfa said: "But Walt still knew that realistic rats are unappealing.  His movies were still made in good taste.  Which is why he made Mickey more human like and less rat like, ie: a caricature, which the rats in Ratatouille are too far away from, ie: too "ratty".  I doubt if Walt was alive this would've been approved byy him."

First, Mickey is a mouse, not a rat.  Big difference.

Second, Pixar wanted that realism feel of the Rats, so they weren't going to dress them up in clothes, give them shoes, and have white gloves on their hands.

Third, There were caricatures of Rats in the movie.  Remy takes a more mouse like appearance than the other rats.  Also, look at the Rats when they are in the shadows versus when they are in the light.  In the shadows they look scary.  In the light, they look like lovable rats.  An example is when Emile is looking through the garbage and Remy is scared.  Another example are the toes.  The toes are pink and round.  They have no claws.

Fourth, no on can exactly say what Walt would or would not Greenlight.  He was the man who took the gamble on a movie called Fantasia, which lost a lot of money.  Try releasing a movie featuring nothing but classical music and animated shorts today.  

We can guess who's side of the Pixar merger Walt would have been on based on his beliefs.  Would Walt choose Walt Disney Feature Animation (pre-merger) or Pixar?  Walt believed in the artists (Pixar).  Walt wanted the money men to stay out (Pixar).  Walt wanted timeless stories with timeless characters (Pixar).  If Walt Disney were alive today and had to chose WDFA or Pixar, he would chose Pixar without a second thought.

Here we go AGAIN with the "what would Walt do/choose/say/.." stuff. If you're not Walt (and it would be weird if you were), stop doing the talking/thinking for him. Only Walt knows what Walt would have done/chosen/said, PERIOD. Stop it with the retrospective Walt Disney thinking. Live in the now.

"Ratatouille... they've made a profitable movie that average folks and film students will still be watching 30 years from now. "

Boy oh boy did you say a mouthful there BHB007!! For that is what the Pixar acquisition was all about. Sure, big openings are great. Sure, marketing tie-ins are super swell. But evergreeen properties that still sell DVDs and books and goodness knows what else 5, 10, 20 years after their release, heck, that's what the Disney films used to be and may well be again.

My opinion is that the Pixar buy was made for this reason above all others and that means the doomsayers of Wall St. are totally looking in the wrong direction when they look at opening numbers alone (and Rat's aren't too shabby, it must be said!).

In weeks to come: Rat will be the only fresh family-flick property out there; great word of mouth will continue to grow; lots of adults without kids are going to see it over more dunderheaded fare like Transformers; and repeat viewership will increase. Seriously. I've seen it twice already and one of my friends and his girlfriend, who aren't even animation freaks, have too and simply won't stop talking to me about it, like this "animation" thing can be for grownups AND kids too. What a concept!

empoor - I think some of Disney's quotes are valid for this discussion as this film brings up questions about what the mindset of the company should be.  Of course we wouldn't know what Walt would say or think exactly about every single detail argued about if he were around now, but most of the quotes presented about producing art gives you an idea of his mindset for running the company.  You can deduce that he was not in it for the money; that the money came as a byproduct of the quality that he so fiercely believed in.  I am excited that Disney is getting back to its roots in this sense.

Gawsh...  So many people talking about taking their 5 year olds to see "Transformers"?!?!  I'd heavily advise against that!  "Transformers" looks like an "Aliens" or (Spielberg's) "War of the Worlds" type of dark, furiously violent sci-fi.  Notice how looooong the commercials for "Transformers" ran with the "This film is not yet rated" disclaimer at the end?  Up until just a week or so ago.  A little bad faith in advertising I would say.

I won't be taking my little ones to "Transformers", "Harry Potter" and certainly not "The Simpsons"; so, we'll go see Remy again!

THANK YOU BRAD BIRD!

bonk!    

empoor said:  "Here we go AGAIN with the "what would Walt do/choose/say/.." stuff. If you're not Walt (and it would be weird if you were), stop doing the talking/thinking for him. Only Walt knows what Walt would have done/chosen/said, PERIOD. Stop it with the retrospective Walt Disney thinking. Live in the now."

But it's fun.... ;-p

Anyway, I do know one thing Walt would have done.  EPCOT would be a city today... not a theme park.

LiverGap said:  "empoor - I think some of Disney's quotes are valid for this discussion as this film brings up questions about what the mindset of the company should be.  Of course we wouldn't know what Walt would say or think exactly about every single detail argued about if he were around now, but most of the quotes presented about producing art gives you an idea of his mindset for running the company.  You can deduce that he was not in it for the money; that the money came as a byproduct of the quality that he so fiercely believed in.  I am excited that Disney is getting back to its roots in this sense"

Exactly.  The quotes I used earlier is an example of how Walt responded to similar questions and thoughts.  My second post about Walt chosing between WDFA (pre-merger) and Pixar was a conclusion based upon Walt's beliefs.  Another point for Walt supporting the way Pixar is run is the fact that the people who run Pixar are students... some of the first students... from Walt's school.  Walt himself said if he was remembered for only one thing, he wanted Cal Arts to be it.

Okay, okay, I must admit. It can be fun :)

But quotes are nothing more than quotes. And you can try to connect the dots of a past quote to a actual situation, but all you will end up with is a mess. He may have said that back then, but that doesn't mean that in this specific situation he would have thought the same. And also, we don't know everything that goes on in Burbank. Maybe Disney and Pixar execs are constantly hugging and there's no hostility at all (won't bet on it, but it's possible). Just saying :)

"He may have said that back then, but that doesn't mean that in this specific situation he would have thought the same."

That's what I meant about not using quotes for every single detail, but for general ideology.

From what we know of Walt Disney, from what we've heard him say, I don't think that he would ever say, "You know what?  I know the story is good that way, but I think it would make more money if we targeted it more toward the kids.  Make that guy punch the other guy on the nose.  Then make him burp.  That should rake in the dough."  We know that totally goes against his principles.  Quotes that reflect this help reflect his principles help here.

"He may have said that back then, but that doesn't mean that in this specific situation he would have thought the same."

That's what I meant about not using quotes for every single detail, but for general ideology.

From what we know of Walt Disney, from what we've heard him say, I don't think that he would ever say, "You know what?  I know the story is good that way, but I think it would make more money if we targeted it more toward the kids.  Make that guy punch the other guy on the nose.  Then make him burp.  That should rake in the dough."  We know that totally goes against his principles.  Quotes that support this help reflect his principles here.

"In fact, tomorrow the site will be running a piece about the extremely clever way that Mr. Bird made his latest film virtually critic-proof..."

Let me guess ... the film lampoons critics and any real critic who was too critical of the film might be perceived as being overly sensitive to ... well ... criticism.

This movie will be very profitable--far more profitable than any of WDFA's recent projects, I'm afraid (and I'm a huge fan of WDFA, lest anyone think I have an axe to grind).

It's fabulously-reviewed by the critics, and audiences are blown away by it, too.

Chuck Viane's analysis is spot-on.  July 4 is a true floating holiday (like Christmas) that can have a significant impact on US Box Office results.  It is historically accurate that family films released in the week prior to the July 4 holiday can get an extraordinary second week bump based on the extra holiday period.  When you take a look at the end of the summer and compare this film to other summer films with comparable first weekend grosses, you will see that Chuck was right.  

From Motley Fool:

"Since last year's $7.4 billion buyout of Pixar, pessimists have been fearing that the family entertainment giant overpaid for a computer-animation pioneer that may have peaked three films ago. I don't see it that way at all. . .

Financially speaking, Disney is also absorbing the high-margin half of Pixar's operations that it used to forgo in its joint venture. Even if Ratatouille scampers away after ultimately grossing around $172 million in stateside ticket sales, that will still be more than any in-house Disney release has generated in 13 years. . . .

Those who write off Ratatouille's soft start as a disappointment are missing the bigger picture. In menu-speak, they've judged the menu based on the appetizers -- even though heartier treats await."

http://tinyurl.com/ysypmt

Since Pinocchio and Fantasia didn't make money on their initial release, should we consider that the begining of the end of the Disney Studios?  Did all quality fade away after those two "disasters"?  Let's keep some perspective, here.

I have to admit I don't understand everyones optimism about this movie.  My family and I saw it Sunday and were kinda bored with it.  The previews for it really looked weak and I wasn't too interested in seeing it until I read all the reviews for people on IMDB saing how great it was.  I didn't find the story that engaging...really dull actually.  There were some cute, funny moments but nothing to really gush over.  The animation was fantastic,  but that is also a given going in...you know it just has to be.  I dont see this movie having too great of legs based on the word of mouth I'm giving it, but I hope it does.  Disney needs a bonafide hit.  As for Ratatouiile, my 5 year old wanted to leave halfway through, my 9 year old said it was "OK", and my 12 year old said it was boring.  In our view, it was the worst Pixar movie made and unless it grows on us somehow after a second viewing sometime,  we will be hard-pressed to purchase it on DVD.  It could,  "A Bugs Life" did for us so we'll see,  but I was disappointed with this latest effort.  Brad failed in this story attempt.

gg2017 - I know what you mean (though I personally loved the movie).  I wouldn't call it "boring," I just think it's what a lot of the reviews say it is - an animated film for _adults_.  It's got humor, but it will not make the audience laugh out loud very much compared to earlier movies like Finding Nemo (I think Cars even had more humor due to Mater).  There are "thrilling" scenes (like when the camera is at Remy's point of view and he's trying to escape something), but no awe-inspiring action sequences like Incredibles or even Toy Story had.  

It did have a lot of heart - but I'm not sure this will be enough to give it the legs at the theaters that we are hoping for.  I know there have been a lot of oscar-nominated movies with a lot of heart but did not do very well at the box office.  You just have to be in the mood to this type of movie in the theaters, and I've heard some people say it's good but a "rental type of movie."  I think it will still do okay due to it being an animated film and the brand name, but I just don't think it will do as well as I hope it would domestically.

My thoughts, again...the last couple of Pixar films have skewed towards an older audiance...when they first did Toy Story, A Bug's Lfe, etc... they all had young children and called upon that creatively...often using their relationships with their kids for insriration (as Andrew Stanton did with Nemo)... But, it's only natural for the "Pixar brain trust" to want to create projects that reflect where they are in their lives today...thus, the audiances for these films are simply going to reflect these changes...even though the quality of their films hasn't changed, their audiance has. So, unless they want to include the "under seven" (or so) demographic in their films, you're not gonna see the kind of box office numbers, you saw in the earlier years...at least not on a regular basis.  Cheers:)    

I went to see "Rat" on opening day; the theatre was about 3/4 full (not bad for a mid-afternoon showing) and while it didn't look like the kids attending weren't all that enthused, the adults (including me) loved it. My fiancee saw it on Monday and she thougth it was the best film she'd seen so far this year. It definitely looks to me like Pixar's put together a movie that'll be a big hit with adults; hopefully, the critical reviews and word of mouth will get out and Rat will have a decent run, if not necessarily a blockbuster one.

Kudos to Brad Bird for putting together a great movie! I loved "The Iron Giant" (phooey on Warner Brothers for not marketing it better) and "The Incredibles", and I love this one, too. Can't wait for his next one.

Considering the movie's popularity with adults who've seen it, I don't think the summer movies coming out are going to be that much of an issue for a while.  Assuming the word of mouth propels this movie, I don't think it's going to be dented by "Order of the Phoenix (well, maybe a little) or "Simpsons" (I see that movie's audience skewing younger than Rat's).  As for "Transformers", I can't really get excited about it - I wasn't a fan of the original show, I'm not much of a fan of Michael Bay's movies, and I suspect I may not be the only one who feels that way.

Of course, I'm not the movie's target audience, so who knows...

Thanks for that link, UncleMike! There's proof enough that at least one Wall St. type financial analyst thinks Disney's investment in Pixar is worth it in the long-term!

I'm always amazed how Jim gets the little facts wrong in his articles so often (and keeps repeating them so they'll seem accurate).

Again, he says that "Cars" and "Ratatouille" mark the beginning of a downward trend for Pixar, which actually began with "The Incredibles".  (This isn't a knock on Pixar, the best studios rise and fall, you can't go up forever.)

Also, he says he can't believe that "Ratatouille" will be the first film to buck the year's trends and have legs.  Except there's already a film that has bucked the trend: "Knocked Up".  While it was expected to do well, it was not expected to hold its audience as well as it has.  But by ignoring the facts, Jim gives his argument credence that it wouldn't have otherwise.

So, two key point that Jim got wrong.  I do wish he's stick to reporting (and checking his facts) and leave his "analysis" out of it.

I'm of two minds about Ratatouille.  On the one hand, I've seen it twice: the second time with my wife, a friend who works in the industry and another who I convinced to see this flick.  All three of them loved it, with the animation pro saying it was one of Pixar's best.   Personally, I think it's as good as anything from Disney's Golden Age.

That said, the little kids didn't seem to be into this movie (I caught a Saturday matinee).  One toddler had to be moved from pillar to post because she was bored (she kept kicking people's seats).  This may end up becoming a movie that parents enjoy more than their kids.

Also, good reviews don't necessarily equal good box office.  Surf's Up has a 77% Fresh Rating on Rotten Tomatoes and it's barely made $53 million after 4 weeks in theatres.  

I'm sort of surprised by the number of gushing reviews of this movie. I'm wondering if some people are pushing it a little hard to try and help it develop the legs they want it to have?

I mean as I said before I liked it ... it was a cute, marginally charming movie. But people calling it the best Pixar film ever? The best movie of all time? Great? People being "blown away"?

I can 100% assure you no one in my theater was "blown away." At the end of Cars the theater erupted in massive applause. This one got a polite smattering and most people seemed anxious to get out of the theater (virtually no one stayed through the credits, which were disappointing anyway). I actually saw more than one family leave in the middle of the film.

It moves VERY slowly and verges on being dull at times. It's a nice film, but definitely my least favorite of all the Pixar movies up to this point (outside of Bug's Life which I've never seen). I just wonder how many of these glowing reviews are genuine and how many are from people fooling themselves.

I just saw a late show (10:30 pm) on Sunday night and there were maybe a dozen people.  Half the audience were high school teenager couples, who seemed to find the movie very funny.  They were laughing (at the appropriate places) about twice as much as I was.

I liked it and will see it again when I take my wife and son.  I don't know what his reaction will be (he's really looking forward to Transformers, which I could care less about), but I'm sure my wife will enjoy it.

I have to say that, Ratatouille is the first animated film I have seen where I feel the adjective "animated" is totally unnecessary.

Ratatouille is a fine film.

And another thing, if you really want to know why Ratatouille (maybe, because only time will tell if a film has legs) and most other summer film fare is not doing so well, there is an important factor that Jim left out of his equation that has nothing to do with how good (subjectively or objectively) a film is.

The economy.

It's in the toilet right and isn't looking to get better any time soon.  People have to be more discretionary with how they spend their disposible income.  A few summer hit movies now...or DVDs later.

If this movie doesn't develop legs, then at least it has a tail!  :)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2007-06-29&p=.htm

Monday's figures. Ratatouille has the lowest sunday-monday drop in the top 10.

It looks like a small leg is already protoforming :-)

leodavinci said:

"The economy.

It's in the toilet right and isn't looking to get better any time soon.  People have to be more discretionary with how they spend their disposible income.  A few summer hit movies now...or DVDs later."

What country do you live in??? The economy is cooking in the U.S. It's hardly "in the toilet"! It's not even close to in the toilet. The Dow is at an all time high, unemployment is at an all-time low ... are you drunk, nuts, or living in a country besides the U.S.??

Well I saw Transformers Last night .... what I will say is this .... its one heck of a wild ride.... its a "good" movie. There are sooooo many visuals and dialog to take in that you can't remember it all by the end. The film is jam packed with just the brand of humor that appeals to the the teens and pre-teen set (as well as some parents) without getting too raunchy or inappropriate. It was in fact more entertaining on a "people" level than almost everything I have seen this summer except for Ratatouille.

And bay manages to pull this off without making it feel as overblown as Spiderman 3 was and as less plot complicated as Pirates was.

This is a movie that almost demands you see it again if you enjoyed it to begin with. This is what a blockbuster is and this is how the money we are debating here is made.

What I think is interesting is that Rat and TF having a few things in common that you didn't see with Shrek, Pirates, Spiderman, etc. Both movies will have positive word of mouth.... both movies represent animators and special effects wizards at the top of their game.  I mean …. If you truly feel that Ratatouille is the best you’ve seen PIXAR do with animation, then TF is the best you will have seen anyone else do with everything else…. Michael Bay or not.

Both movies make you laugh. No joke … TF has a number of quirky, funny “people” moments that take you completely by surprise. (which will be the source of the word of mouth).

Transformers is that movie that makes kids want to make movies when they grow up. Its also that movie that teens flock in groups together to see. Ratatouille is that movie you want to take your parents to see.

As far as this debate is concerned….  Ratatouille is a better work of art … a better film….. but one type of movie makes more money than the other.

Went and saw RAT.... on Sunday.  It is more an adult/young 20's film than a family animation feature in the prior tradition of the Disney/Pixar films.  It has a very sophisticated story line and script that doesn't pander.  This will draw more adults and young 20's by word of mouth as it gets out.  However, as I heard several "seven-somethings" say throughout the film, "Mommy...when is this going to be over?"   And, therein is the problem and the rub that Disney is going to have to overcome.

Ratatouille made nearly $8 million on both monday and tuesday. That's actually *better* than Cars did after its first weekend. At this rate it should get to $75 million before next weekend even starts, and it has a shot at $100 million by the end of the week. So yeah, this movie very definitely has legs.

I'm kind of astounded by the number of people here who think that Cars is better than Ratatouille, though. Blows my mind. I could kind of see how ADD-addled kids might be a bit fidgety during Ratatouille (though the ones in my screening seemed to love it) but I can't believe an adult would prefer Cars, which is not only Pixar's worst but doesn't even feel like a real Pixar movie, with the song montages and pop culture references. And Larry the Cable Guy. Ick.

Well, I went to see the film the day after it opened and loved it.  I also sat in a theater that was 1/3 empty.  

This is a hard film to market - Rats in the kitchen.  I told friends about the film and reminded them of a comment made by the brother during the trailer; if you could get past the "Ick!" factor it wasn't bad.  That, IMNSHO, applies to the film.

Someone mentioned it being a kids film.  Nope, no kid I know is going to "get" the story and there just isn't enough action to get them involved.  If Disney is pinning their hopes on the youngsters, they're done.

The film is beautiful and there is an interesting story with a smashing soundtrack.  It reminded me very much of some classic Disney movies. It will be interesting to see what ends up on the DVD.

Someone made a comment about how most of the releases this year were highly anticipated sequels that failed to live up to their hype and word of mouth killed them. (I'm paraphrasing here)  Have to agree.  This film, however, lived up to the promise of the trailer and exceeded expectations.  It will be interesting to see how the number stack up at the end of the summer.

Transformers made $28 Million on the first day and $36 over the first 28 hours.  It's the 20th all time opening day grosses.  Can we claim it's a disappointment?  I expect the articles by the end on how the Paramount purchase of Dreamworks was not worth it.   (*rolls eyes*)  

WDWacky said:

"What country do you live in??? The economy is cooking in the U.S. It's hardly "in the toilet"! It's not even close to in the toilet. The Dow is at an all time high, unemployment is at an all-time low ... are you drunk, nuts, or living in a country besides the U.S.??"

I was born, raised and lived in Ohio for the first thirty years of my life, with a couple of years in Pennsylvania attending and graduating from the Art Institute of Pittsburgh.  Since then, and for the past 27 years, I have been living in Arizona.  during those 27 years I have traveled literally from coast to coast several times by plane and car; and vacationed many times in California and Florida.

During my adult life, I have held a variety of jobs, mostly in the graphic arts, and for the past two decades I have been running a publishing business.

My assessment of the U.S. economy isn't based on how well the Dow is "reported" to be performing or on government "reports" of unemployment.  Only the foolish take such "reports" at face value, particularly "reports" from those with vested interests in seeing that such "reports" are optimistic or upbeat.

I base my assessment primarily on first hand experience and observations, such as the increased prices of goods and services over just the past few years, and what I see happening to the middle class (which most people I know belong to).  

I know too many people across a variety of industries whose incomes ought to be providing them with decent middle class lifestyles, but doesn't.  This isn't about people who can't manage money.  There is an economic malaise going on.

Particularly in real estate.  I am not a real estate agent, but my business supports the real estate industry.  It has put me in contact with a great many agents, brokers, mortgage people and other professionals, so I have acquired some knowledge about real estate in general and certain markets in particular.  Owning homes in Arizona and Ohio also helps.

If your personal economic situation allows you unlimitled disposible income, that's great.  More power to you.

Most people I know don't have that luxury.  And for what it's worth, the idea that decreasing disposible income might have an affect on box office is not mine.  I've been reading about for years.  In fact, just as long as I've been reading about declining ticket sales.

TechGuy said:

"Transformers made $28 Million on the first day and $36 over the first 28 hours.  It's the 20th all time opening day grosses.  Can we claim it's a disappointment?  I expect the articles by the end on how the Paramount purchase of Dreamworks was not worth it.   (*rolls eyes*)  "

But has the highest Tuesday opening day gross ever, so it's not exactly the same ;)

empoor said: "But has the highest Tuesday opening day gross ever, so it's not exactly the same ;)"

(/sarcasm) Ohh... that's they way they are spinning it.  Spiderman 3 opened with $57+ in one day.  Transformers was supposed to be the "it" movie of the summer.  $28 is well below expectations.  It's the end of the world for Paramount/Dreamworks.  Paramount paid too much for Dreamworks.  Run for your lives!  (/end sarcasm)

The economy has virtually no effect on the performance.

DVD sales, on the other hand, do. People typically want to see movies on the big screen that NEED to be on the big screen (ie Die Hard [which took the title too figuratively, everyone died too hard, since when does getting run over at 60 mph not hurt people?])

For comedies and dramas, people know they can rent the DVD and watch it on their home theaters for a fraction of the cost of going to see a movie, without having to fight for a good seat. This is why films like Rain Man will never be the top earning picture again - people will just wait to see it in the comfort of their own homes. They can rent it for half the price of one ticket or buy it for about the same cost.

I disagree with The Incredibles being the beginning of the downfall, as well. It wasn't a summer release. If I recall it met expectations for a November release.

TechGuy, just so you know, somewhere there's a room full of guys going "the movie lost money, but it was a critical success. That's more important. Small victories, people, so what if we can't finance another one!? (/end sarcasm)

You're being very narrow-minded and absolutely refusing to accept that there's a side to this -business- other than the one where you sit your ass in the theater seat.

If you don't think movies failing to meet expectations can lead to an impact to fans then explain to all the Superman Returns fans why they're not getting a sequel. The movie led the box office, right? Critics liked it, right? It's the 11th highest Wednesday opening of all time, and the 76th highest grossing movie in the US of all time.

So why is there no Superman Returns sequel?

Because all the things you mock matter significantly more than you're willing to accept.

Even though I saw Transformers on monday ... I took the rest of the family yesterday ... 4th of July.

We arrived at the theater at 1:30 for a 2:30 showing. The 2:30 was sold out so I planned on getting tickets for the 3:00. I was about 2 people from the box office when the 3:00 sold out. Again .... this was the 3:PM sold out at 1:30. I ended up getting tickets for the 3:40 showing. The lines waiting to get in had already started forming with about 60 people ahead of us.... so we waited 90 minutes in line to get into the theater.

The concessions stand was overwhelmed ... took 30 minutes to get a bag of popcorn and some bottles of water. They ran out of cold bottles of water and popcorn twice while I waited.

This year alone.... I was at the opening weekend of Spiderman 3, POTC 3, Skrek 3, Die Hard 4, and Ratatouile. In the past I had been at the opening weekends for King Kong, Narnia, Superman Returns, Cars, X Men 3 and Dead Mans Chest.

I had not seen this many people at the movies on any day .... holiday or not since Star Wars Episode 1 in 1999. The only movie "event" to maybe come close was Dead Mans Chest last summer. But it only came close.

If that is not success for Transformers ... I don't know what is. And it still proves that peple have the money and are willing to spend it on the overpriced popcorn and drinks provided there is a blockbuster movie involved. (Incidently ... there were alot of folks going into see Die Hard as well)

True ... the movie itself isn't a masterpiece.... but its entertaining to the max and great fun to watch.

This just in, according to Deadline Hollywood Daily:

"Meanwhile, Disney says Ratatouille’s Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday opening week grosses proved to be the biggest ever for a Pixar film: Monday $7.5M beating Finding Nemo which was $6.9M, Tuesday $7.8M beating Finding Nemo which was $7.1M, and Wednesday $10.2M beating Toy Story 2 which was $9.5M."

Talk about legs, the little rat is beating out the almighty Finding Nemo on weekdays!

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/transformers-explodes-for-29m-on-july-4/

And Rluke, I'm gonna have to echo your thoughts on Transformers being huge. My friend went to buy tickets at 1 pm yesterday for a 3:30 show, and it was SOLD OUT until 8:30 at night so we didn't even see it yesterday. If that isn't good box office, I don't know what is!

People are predicting a $30 + million second weekend also....and scientifically rats definitely have more legs than fish.

LOL @ Buzz :P

I expect "Rat" to do a $ 32-34 million second weekend. Weekday box office has been strong, even though it had 'some' competition.

Behold the adjusted for inflation gross... aka if they sold the same number of tickets today:

1 Gone with the Wind MGM $1,329,453,600 1939^

2 Star Wars Fox $1,172,026,900  1977

3 The Sound of Music Fox $937,093,200  1965

4 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $933,401,500 1982

5 The Ten Commandments Par. $861,980,000  1956

6 Titanic Par. $844,515,900  1997

7 Jaws Uni. $842,758,600 1975

8 Doctor Zhivago MGM $816,811,300  1965

9 The Exorcist WB $727,541,800 1973

10 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs Dis. $717,220,000  1937

11 101 Dalmatians Dis. $657,455,500  1961

12 The Empire Strikes Back Fox $646,028,600  1980

13 Ben-Hur MGM $644,840,000  1959

14 Return of the Jedi Fox $618,910,900  1983

15 The Sting Uni. $586,560,000  1973

16 Raiders of the Lost Ark Par. $579,973,400 1981

17 Jurassic Park Uni. $567,234,400  1993

18 The Graduate AVCO $563,059,800 1967

19 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $558,153,800 1999

20 Fantasia Dis. $546,426,100  1941

Have fun with that.

Source... boxofficemojo.com

Here's the latest box office report by Greg Hernandez of the Los Angeles Daily News:

LOS ANGELES -- Could the name of a movie be more prophetic?

Just as the summer movie season was entering into a mini-slump, “Transformers” stormed into theaters Monday night and literally transformed the box office landscape by grossing an astounding $65.7million -- including the biggest Fourth of July gross in history.

This big action DreamWorks/Paramount co-production has put business back on track after more than a month of lackluster ticket sales. “Transformers” took in an estimated $29.1million on July Fourth, crushing the previous record of $21.9 million set in 2004 by “Spider-Man 2.” That followed a record Tuesday gross of $27.9million and $8.7million from Monday night showings.

THE PERFECT DATE: I goofed on the studio a little bit last week for changing the date for the “Transformers” debut more than once. I mean, driving down Highland Avenue into Hollywood, I can still look up and see a giant billboard advertising a July Fourth release date. It had been pushed up a day in recent weeks, and then just last week, we learned of the plan for a Monday night roll-out.

Now, the studio distribution folks at Paramount look like absolute geniuses!

MIGHTY RAT: When I talked to Disney’s distribution head, Chuck Viane, on Sunday, he seemed surprisingly unconcerned that “Ratatouille,” the latest Pixar Animation title, had a softer-than-expected bow of $47 million.

“It sounds cliche, but in the summer, every day is like a Saturday,” Viane said, as upbeat as ever.

He was so right.

Since the weekend, “Ratatouille” has been pulling in very strong midweek business, taking in $7.5 million on Monday, $7.85 million on Tuesday, and $10.2 million on July Fourth. This gives the movie a solid $72.5 million haul (that’s not counting Thursday figures) as it heads into its second weekend.

I'm sure you've all looked at the early numbers by now.

They speak for themselves, and they speak loudly. Granted, it's a unique weekend, but...

At the very least they picked an excellent release date in the summer schedule. At the least...

Studio estimates show a 38% decrease in sales this weekend vs. openening weekend--significantly less than Jim predicted in his article when he wrote:

'In a summer where virtually every major studio release has seen ticket sales fall off by more than 55 - 65 % over its second weekend in release, I find it extremely hard to believe that "Ratatouille" going to be the one movie that bucks that trend.'

Looks like Rat did, indeed, buck that trend.

//In a summer where virtually every major studio release has seen ticket sales fall off by more than 55 - 65 % over its second weekend in release, I find it extremely hard to believe that "Ratatouille" going to be the one movie that bucks that trend.//

To put it in perspective, here's a list of some of the major releases, and their second-weekend drops:

Spider-Man 3: -61.5%

Shrek the Third: -56.4%

Pirates of the Caribbean- At World's End: -61.5%

Knocked Up: -36.0%

Ocean's 13: -45.4%

Surf's Up: -47.5%

Fantastic Four- Rise of the Silver Surfer: -65.5%

Evan Almighty: -51.5%

Live Free or Die Hard: -47.9%

Ratatouille: -38.3%

So...as for this "55-65% trend," well, it appears as though Spider-Man, Pirates, Shrek, and Fantastic Four were the only members of this club.  If you had said 45-65%, well, then you might have had a better argument, as then only Knocked Up and Ratatouille would have bucked the trend.  But considering that six of the ten biggest releases (to see a second weekend) this summer have bucked that trend, it really isn't that much of a trend to begin with.

Of course, the percentages are just one way to look at it, and considering Pirates, Shrek, and Spidey all opened to over $100 million, it really shouldn't be surprising that they suffered large drops, since it would be quite difficult to maintain those ludicrously high numbers when most of the folks who were dying to see the flick probably saw it the first weekend, and in a fairly crowded summer, some people can't afford the luxury of seeing individual films more than once.

Dead wrong on the "no legs" thing.  Not just a great second weekend, but incredible weekdays for the entire week.  The opening weekend was quite a bit lower than even Cars, but it has almost caught up already, at this point it's only 5% behind and will probably pass it in a day or two.

At the very least, it looks like there's no question this AT WORST will beat Cars, it's already showing very good legs which isn't surprising based on the great reviews and positive audience response.  I don't doubt that this will still be running when school gets back in session, with sizeable weekends until fall.

There have been plenty of movies with huge openings and huge drops, but that has been happening for years.  And don't forget that Shrek, Spidey, and Pirates were all sequels (big opening) and had mixed to poor reviews and audience reception (big drops).  People are still willing to see movies more than once, or hear about a movie and go weeks after it opened.  But only if the movie is good.  And Ratatouille is the best reviewed movie of the year so far.

And forgot to mention...even if Ratatouille just matches Cars domestically, it probably has a good chance to beat it by a huge amount overseas.  Cars was a mild disappointment in the states, but a huge one internationally.  This should reverse that easily.

To chime in VERY late on this one....

I had little desire to see RAT, but some friends wanted to go see it and asked me to join them. So I went.....

AND LOVED THIS MOVIE!

The word of mouth I have heard (as well as been spreading myself) is all positive. I have a hard time thinking this movie won't continue to do business for awhile.

I tip my hat to Pixar.

PS - PLEASE FIRE THE MARKETING STAFF!!!!!!

BoxOfficeMojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=ratatouille.htm) has Ratatouille only dropping off by 33% over the 2nd weekend...victory!  

Actually 38%...but still very very good.