Ok, I'll be the first to say that POTC II will take top spot at 121 million.

The internet buzz I have seen is nto so negative as some of teh Superman was. I see 109.6 Million and still articles about it underperforming

Sorry...next time I spellcheck better

I'll put my money on $114 million.

"before they discover what became of the Kracken's snack"

Gee, thanks for the spoiler without any warning at all...

I'll say $111 million

hmm lets go with $125 million on this one.  Should be plenty of buzz out there to help this movie rule the summer.

I will go with USD 129.4 for the opening weekend

Uh, first of all--Jim?  C'mere a sec.  No, no, c'mere:
Are there any....ANY!!...movies that Disney puts out that you don't try to do the "WIll it be coi-tans for Disney at the box office weekend" bit for?  Even if they're *not* made by Pixar?

Second:
----
"This is why senior Disney officials are now going out of their way to immediately denigrate any talk about possible financial projections for 'Dead Man's Chest.' If you ask these guys flat-out how they expect this film to do over its opening weekend, they'll tell you that "We don't know" and/or "We have high hopes" and/or "We're hoping for the best" or words to that effect.
----
Or--taking a page from the "Cars" PR-embarrassment that snowballed out of control down the mountain and crushed the village below--they've learned that it's probably NOT a smart idea to blow their trumpet with next week's purely imaginary numbers in public, and then horsewhip the real movie for "not making as much money" as their own pipe dream?
Warner didn't learn it.  And look what happened.
(So, what was that bit again, about "Oh, NO!  Cars will be crushed by the onslaught!  Will Lasseter have to clean out his desk?")

People will go see Pirates.  Just how MANY, in the longrun, will depend on whether or not they bobble the actual final product (and, although the trailers look good, there's always that risk), but we can assume the first weekend will be big.  Always leave yourself a back door.

I think that the estimate is $210.5 million

I can't believe you just threw in that spoiler. I'm reading 9 out 10 good reviews for this movie and I'm bias so I'll go with 117.3, inflation what can you say?

I would have to say 117.46 million domestic.  It will be huge and surpass SpiderMan.
And plus, Pirates is lucky cuz it has time on its side.  Unlike the other "blockbusters" of the summer.  Pirates is placed at the very end of the lineup.  MI3, Cars, XMen 3, Click, SuperMan...came and gone.  Pirates has the whole summer to be fresh, with no other blockbusters in sight.  

X-Men performed HUGE opening weekend with a strong following, AND it was the final of the trilogy.  It scored a 107 million in its first weekend.  But, then again...it got lots of negative reviews.  Infact, it had a 57% at www.rottentomatoes.com.  And to date its made 228 million.  Unimpressive, especially with the 107 for its FIRST weekend.

Pirates just looks better than MI 3 and XMen3, and it getting better reviews.  It is also, like u said Jim, the most anticpated movie of the summer.  And since we dont have SpiderMan 3 to look forward to this summer, Pirates will rule the seven seas on the box office.  Im lookin at 850 + worldwide overall, and at least 300 domestic overall.

This movie definately has legs.  Im also looking forward to winning the books.  lol.

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$114.35 million opening...

My guess: $90.2m

And $90.2 is a HIGH guess for me.

My reasons.

It's too long to break $110m.  With trailers this is film is over 2.5 hours.  Theaters will be LUCKY to get five showing per screen, per day (counting the midnight screening).  And yes, I know Spidy was long as well.  

But also, not enough screens.

Early reviews are tepid.

Disney has bungled too many high profiled projects recently.  I believe the public remembers.  Pixar has a better reputation than Disney at the moment.  

Expect some "vacation burn out" from the four-day July 4th holiday.  Families are more likely to stay home.

Moviegoers still have Superman and Click to pick from for next weekend as well.  Xmen was up against nothing earlier this summer.

I will say this, Disney has been able to promote this film for months without burning out the public on it so far.  So I could be wrong.

By Friday, we will have a very good idea.

I guess it'll be US $122.5 for the opening weekend.
I wonder though if the second trailer (that was very fantasyish) will keep people from watching that movie.

Too much money talk on here lately.
I love this site.....but confess that all these financial projection stories bore me outta my skull. Is anyone out there really all that interested in how much money everything makes? CARS is still going along, making money, because despite some critical negativity, it is a movie with a strong central theme (the dissolution of American roadside culture) that holds some interest. I know I want to see it again. SUPERMAN will not because its central theme (emotional responses from its iconic central characters about the return of earths savior) is mishandled and dull. I think the most interesting aspect of the PIRATES discussion is whether or not it will be a funny, exciting movie, not how much money it puts into Disney pockets. I never see any of that money anyway, so it depresses me to talk about it...lol
It might just be me, though. I remember dumping my subscription to MOVIELINE after one too many articles about the supposed power brokers of Hollywood.

90.3 million.  Along Englishboy's lines, but I think it'll go slightly higher.

My guess is $133.4m

95.7 million. I find the release date of the movie somewhat foreboding, as if they did not want to release the movie in time for July 4th 1) out of fear of Superman and 2) any negative word hitting the press (see spoiler in story), which would hurt weekend BO.

113.7 million

I loved POTC-Black Pearl and am anxiously awaiting July 7th to see Dead man's chest.  I saw cars and plan to see it again and could care less about the numbers.  But I will wager that 115.1.  I think there are more fans of pirates than spiders and you can't rule out all those women in love with the leading men.  You have to admit they are easy on the eyes....

101.7 million

This movie will be great at $118.215 M

Opening weekend?   I see....91.5 million.

>>Is anyone out there really all that interested in how much money everything makes?<<

Is anyone who reads ESPN.com really interested in all that sports stuff?

I presume that we are talking Box Office Mojo's reported actuals rather than the estimates that always come out sometime Sunday.  OK then . . . . 105 million, mostly because the higher numbers are getting crowded.

$126.5

Superman did $84 mil in 5 days and Spiderman did $114 mil in 3. I'd agree Superman's numbers are a disappointment. So with that I'll say Pirates does $96.3 mil for its first weekend.

i'm gonna go with 93.5 Million.

John

I would have to go with 98.2M for opening weekend.

My guess is 122.7M for opening weekend.  Hopefully everyone heads out to the theatres this weekend.

$85.5m

I'll go for $117.3 mil

I say 119.3M

99 million.

Just for optimism's sake, $127,217,009.42.  The summer movie season has gotta kick in at some point, right?

93 million

105 million

I'm going with....  $123,023,023.42...  Oddball huh?  POTC should be awesome and jus edge out everybody's favorite webslinger...

$ 81 Million.

$106.2 million

I'm going to have to go with 113.7 million dollars, just barely passing up Spiderman 2.

For my first post ever on JHM....i shall guess....

103.2 Million in its first three days of release this upcoming weekend.

Depsite any word-of-mouth....Pirates' popularity has only grown since the first films release three years ago.  Good film or bad film, it almost makes no difference on opening weekend.  It'll only matter in the second weekend, where, if the reaction is more negative than positive, will likely make it sink into -%55 waters...which is worse than the Kraken itself.

Well, we'll be there. We saw POTC 1 about three times in a first-run theater.  We're only seeing POTC 2 once in a first-run, again in a second-run (.99 theater), and then buy it on DVD, and play the heck out of it.

Oh, and $100 million, at least, but DVD sales will be through the roof.....

$102.4 million

94.2 million. I don't think it will break a hundred or any records, but will do more like Harry Potter did a few years ago.

Jim, any comments on the latest death at Walt Disney World? What is going on?

I believe it will be $108.5 million.

I have a feeling Pirates II will do about the same as the first one did. Lookin' for ward to it. Love pirate flicks. :)

I believe Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest will make....

116,985,000 dollars in its opening weekend gross.

Hey Rapier-- you hit send same time I did. Get your own brain will ya!

$101.2 million

I will say $95.2 million, under expectations but still a very big take at the box office for the weekend.  Superman Returns is done.

It will just top Spidy at $116,525,113

Hmmm....  I'll take "Blockbusters" for 120.3m, Alex.

I'm going to go ahead and say Dead Man's Chest has an excellent chance of being a huge blockbuster for Disney. Highest opening weekend ever? I'm not too sure about that. Biggest movie of the summer? A couple weeks ago, I wouldn't have thought that it would do better than Superman. But now... I think it has a great chance.

Man, I'm incredibly excited to see this movie.

$122 million easy.

MI3 failed not only because it was all action with a weak plot -- but also because of a public epidemic of Tom Cruiseyetis (a malady originating from the Church of Katie-&-Tom-Are-In-The-Headlines-Again-I-Think-I'm-Gonna-Be-Sick).

No such malady exists with Depp, Bloom, Knightly or Depp.  

Did I mention Depp?  
He's piratically delicious.

123.6 million

since no one has said it I'll put down 110 million

109 at its best

86.9 million

$124.3

I'll go crazy. 132.6 million.

92.6 million

89.8 million

$900 gazillion-bajillion. And this site will still spin that number as a disappointment. :)

The hearsay being reported in this article is definitely amusing though. Seriously, Nikki Finke is the featured source? Even when you look at her site, this is how the article starts:

"I'm told the latest tracking for Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean 2 (aka Dead Man's Chest) 'is as big as any film in history.'"

"I'm told..."??? Hmmm, just yesterday, I was told that frogs could speak fluent Mandarin and that the US would win the World Cup. Hmmm. Can we cite some legitimate sources? This JHM article is basically second-hand hearsay and assuming it's fact. LOL! Even the WSJ article didn't take that leap of faith. The most they suggested was: "...and early audience research suggests the first sequel has the potential to be a monster hit ."

A monster hit. It's a hunch, but I bet Dick Cook and Nina Jacobson would be okay with that. :)

Alright; I know I'M going to see this film, and it looks like all of the commenters here are too. I don't think it hurts to be optimistic...

I'll say $160 million. This is gonna be big.

$111.11 million

I predict.... $91.7 million.

$115,527,014 Exactly   .... that is not guessing.. I actually traveled through time and checked it out

$148 million

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I think 93.4 million

I think that Superman underperforming is a good thing.  You see, most familys(at least mine) is not gonna go see two movies in one week.  So, since Superman underperformed we can only imagine that the familys decided to not see Superman and to see Pirates.  Pirates also appeals more familys with sons and daughters becasue you have Pirates for little boys and dads and you have Johny Depp and Orlando Bloom(not to mention Mrs. Swann(kierra knightly)) for little girls and moms.  So, i think, the reason Superman underperformed is that familys decided to see pirates and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Mans Chest is gonna rack up 117.5 million.  Go Disney!!!!!!!!

Sorry for now putting this in my other statement but to back my estimate up even more, Pirates is going to have 124 more theatres than Spiderman 1 did.  Again helping it beat Spiderman.

Seeing as how Cars has now generated about $650 million dollars, I'm sure Disney is thrilled!  With nearly $200 million theatrically worldwide, the film's toys (according to Toy Consumer Magazine) has generated nearly $600 million.  And the toys are still selling out!

Now the real comment:  jimmyboy hill should hire a few REAL writers...and maybe a journalist.  People are tired of the poorly constructed sentences and paragraphs, the poor grammar, and the inadequate sourcing.

I'll say $85 million.

>>People are tired of the poorly constructed sentences and paragraphs, the poor grammar, and the inadequate sourcing. <<

Sources say that insiders argue that people are tired of off-topic discussion board posts by ignorant fanboys.

$94.8 million

I want to put my prediction in at 126.2 million.  A little on the high side probably, but there's not too much else in competition.

$74.5 million

I'm gonna predict 117.5 million

wow.
I guess I AM wrong!
Apparently, everyone is interested in numbers, numbers, and more numbers.
sigh.
Oh, art! Wherefore didst thou goest, art?
I shall retire to Bedlam.

3 day total: 110.35M

$87,550,000

...Okay?  Finished now?  We've all had our fun?  Good.

Now, what have we, the participants of the "contest" accomplished?
In a word, we have:
- Been suckered into taking Jim's side, intentionally or not, against all those mean ol' whiners who were accusing him of turning a Disney History & Trivia site into a partisan sniping about Variety box-office numbers,
- Created imaginary business expectations for a movie that hasn't opened yet, subjectively proportional to how "cool" we think it's going to be...Thus turning any real grosses it does or doesn't make into a personalized "pride" issue, like an overzealous Packers fan at Super Bowl time,
- Tacked up phantom numbers in the air for its real-world box office to possibly -not- reach, thus subjecting it to the same "Why did it flop on its face??" "disappointments" to said imaginations that Disney's last release had its reputation falsely blackened, less than a month earlier,
- Emphasized to all readers that a movie's quality is entirely determined by box-office numbers, real or imaginary, and
- Leapt at the chance to be bribed for the privilege of it.  With childrens' books.

...Sorry, I've already got the books at the library.
Can I take the thirty pieces of silver, instead?  :)

$117.7 million ... TZA!

Giving its running time and not knowing how many screens PotCII will be playing on ... it's like spitting into the ocean ... but I'll give it a shot. Opening weekend: $136.2 million

128.2 million ......greetings from germany .. Stephan

$135.63 million

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say 317 mil. Out there, but I'm just doing this for kicks.

-Yensidtlaw1969

My guess: $112 million.  

You are all wrong to a grotesque degree.  The film will gross exactly 317 Vietnamese Dong, a carton of Kools, and a "yard-o-beef" originally purchased from the Wal-Mart in Haines City, FL.

I  think it will get $167.5 million.

Sign me up for $82.6

I will say 68 million.

92.3 million, I'd say....

97.4

$82.5 million

71.6 million

110.8 million

61.3 million

Hello long time reader first time poster but I think it will make,

115.4 million dollars over the weekend

I'm going to guess 88 million dollars.

Happy 4th of July! :)

Rather arbitrarily, I chose to increase last year's opening weekend gross for the final "Star Wars" film by eight percent, so my guess is $117,110,708 (adjusting for inflation and pirate mania).

$96.2 million.  We're only talkin' three days here.

96.4 million

I think $90.1 million.

I'd say 85.3 million

Im going to say $104.7 million.

69.5 mil

It'll be rough.  People just don't come out for movies in flocks anymore.  Doesn't happen.  Little $15-$30 million comedies make slightly less than major events, and are therefore more successful.  Even when it's unwatchable stuff like Nacho Libre.

Has any big budget film been a success this year?
Smaller ones, like Inside Man, have, but any major films?


That said, I don't know a single person not "intending" to see this in theaters.
I've "intended" to see several movies this year and seen maybe three, so that might not mean much, but it's still something to consider.


My guess?
$126.4 million.
It's wishful thinking.  I want this to explode.  I want one big, enormous hit so Hollywood can't just say it's the viewers fault, so they maybe realize part of the problem is the crap they keep expecting us to pay for.

My guess, $102.6 Million

Arg. Me thinks it's 107.1. MILLION dollars.... Yikes, that's a lot of money!

100.2 Million!

124.6 Million

Ok... prediction time.

86.6 million.

I'm gonna guess 117.6

And at least 16 of my dollars will be going to see it opening weekend. yay!

My guess on the 3-day take is $90.6 Million.

My guess...$88.2 million dollars.

$78 mil

$98.6 million dollars seems normal to me

I think Pirates will pull in about $100 million on opening weekend...

I will go with 82.7 million.  Please :).

I think that PotC:DMC will rack up $102.6 million in it's first weekend!

I'm gonna go with 130 million

I think it will just beat Spider-Man's record with $117.2 million. This is easily the most anticipated movie of the summer, if not the year.

Some of us...despite the fact the we are not on the internet most of our waking lives... did not know about the actual ending. We knew there was a cliff hanger. Some of us even liked thte fact that there was more POTC to come. But only a real jerk would spoil it by telling us the ending. Someone had to be the first. Whether or not you were the first Mr. Hill, did you have to be a part of the pack of lowlife baying dogs that spoil our dreams!!! We could do with less smugness, more objective info next time around, and NO movie spoilers. Leave that to the undisciplined children that whine and cry before, during, and after the movies. In other words, leave this tripe to the real movie critics. Nobody, with a brain that functions, listens to them anyway (except the editors...but that is a rant for another day).

Put me in at 92,500,001$

$112.5

I'll throw one into the hat
$95.2M

$112.6 mil

$104.444 and 44 cents. And there was a spoiler warning - quit your baby whining and insults.

I'll go for $104 million, even.

Just realized I forgot to add millions to my post. (why cant we edit our posts!)
So to clarify.

Pirates will make 117.6 Million in its weekend opening.

Like woah.

I'm going to say 128.4 million.....

Throwing my guess up:

$113.13 Million

$121.6 million

67.5 million is my estimate.

I estimate 144.4 million!!

94.2 Million

My call is 98.5

My guess is 130.5

My guess is 94.5 million.

Hmm I'll say $106.8 million

Actually you know what, scratch what I just said, I'll actually say $124.7 million

80.1

I predict 142 million.

I predict 52.5 million.

84.5 million

Hmm...  guess I'll say $89.7m

$100.4

$105.6

$79.5 Million

126.3 million for the weekend!

$102 million

$104.2 Million

$131 million

I'll pick 116.2 million dollars  ... that's one-hundred-sixteen-point-two-million dollars

$118.1 million be the number required by Davy Jones....  Arrr...

I think it will make 92.3 million

117,43 million dollars.....

I'll call $111.5 million

I'm guessing it will make $112.5 million.

I'll go for 101.5 million

I'll go with 127.1 million

My guess....$118.5 million

I'm going to go out on a limb and say $321 million.  I know it's WAY out there, but I'm pretty sure that with fun pirate adventure and Keira and Johnny and Keira and Orlando and Keira, this movie is going to do HUGE business.  Have I mentioned Ms. Knightley?

And yes, I know this is just for the first 3 days.  Total domestic gross will be $725 million.  What can I say?...I'm confident!  Yo Ho.  Tee hee.

I think it will gross $108.1 million on the opening weekend and $390 million overall.

I think it will better Superman, but not by much - $86.4 million.

hmm...  78.1 million

&lt;i&gt;Sande Alessi Casting is searching for a few good scalawags. Jim Hill shares the particulars about these piratical auditions ... PLUS gives us a peek at the &quot;Pirates III&quot; teaser poster ... PLUS posts the final listing for JHM's guess-the-opening-weekend-gross-of-&quot;Dead-Man's-Chest&quot;

According to boxofficemojo, Pirates 2 made $55.5 million in its 1st day, a new single day and opening day record.

Estimates put Pirates at about $132m (making it by far the largest opening weekend in history & it helped propel the box office to the largest aggregated weekend in history).

Looks like it's going to be between blackcauldron85 & GofForever (unless the estimate is way off).

Make that between GofForever, BlackCauldron85 & muppetaphrodite.

Actually, aggie96 won the predictions game. She predicted $135.63 million. That is statistically equal to the the exact figures ($135,634,554) that POTC: DMC hauled in its debut weekend.

Actually, aggie96 won the predictions game. She predicted $135.63 million. That is statistically equal to the the exact figures ($135,634,554) that POTC: DMC hauled in its debut weekend.

&lt;i&gt;Tired of stories about Disney films that are supposedly unperforming? Well, Roger Colton turns your attention toward Warner Bros. Studios. Which has had such a long cold streak at the box office this year, you'd think that their corporate headquarters