Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

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John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 01:30:02 GMT

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re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 02:22:58 GMT

VERY interesting article. On the flipside though, World of Disney last week made WAY over the projected revenue for the week and has been trending upward for the last month. Seeing as those projections were made back when the economy was in good shape, merchandise at least doesn't seem to be too worried. Can't speak for the resort side though. Good article John.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 02:48:38 GMT

Thanks Tuckenie...and here's another comparison point I hadn't considered: Really, the "merch side" of WDW is the equivalent of the gaming side of Vegas in that it is the "other thing" people spend money on...albeit w/o the same chance of a return, however slight (if you dont' count eventual resale on Ebay of those items that achieve "collectors item" status--and that reminds me: Those people avoiding the Ratatouille goodies might consider that if they're not selling much NOW, they may be more valuable by virtue of scarcity LATER. Y'never know......but I'd rather put my money on the hard 8. (Smile)

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 03:28:26 GMT

What, Huh?

10% off New York, New York plus $10 at Starbucks isn't exactly a fire sale. Somehow I think that New York, New York would still be dishing 10% in their "regular customer" emails during good economic times.

Also, Vegas is a driving destination. O-town is a flying destination. Despite the price of gas, flights are still pretty cheap. O-town had a much larger problem when no one wanted to fly after 9/11. Now that was an issue. i would actually think that people would be more likely to fly this coming summer because a flight may ultimately be cheaper than a driving vacation, which would actually benefit O-town.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 03:30:38 GMT

Oh, and having worked in the hotel business for about 10 years, I can tell you that Rack Rate is what people pay on New Year's Eve, Thanksgiving, July 4th, Memorial Day Weekend, and Labor Day Weekend. Rack Rate is the highest allowable rate for any given room.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 04:09:46 GMT

Actually, in Vegas's case, "rack" is the high rate charged during full-to-the-brim convention times, specifically the CES show and the NAB, but yes, it is the highest and most unusual. The point wasn't the 10% to begin, it was the progression as the summer continues, whereas summer is actually a BUSY season in Vegas except in very late August when the heat drives some away. As for NY/NY, I did mention that it is not, like the others cited, a high-end property...but compared to the no-tell motels in Vegas it is certainly respectable and mid-range.

Furthermore, re. flight rates and gas--have you noticed that three "discount-nofrills" carries have gone OUT of business in the last week or two due to fuel costs? That doesn't mean the majors are likely to do so, but it DOES remove the down-pressure on their fares that such discounter competition creates. And btw, even those "Disney's Magical Express" busses burn fuel, and all those "Free" hotel shuttles have to get paid for somehow.

But hey, those numbers Jim cited in general are telling--he sent me the actual stats, and the interesting thing is that whereas last year the average room rates went UP every month from March through July, this year they're going DOWN. Since demand is higher in summer's full season (as anyone who's been foolish enough or compelled by school vacation schedules enough to fight the lines and crowds at WDW knows) the idea that they'd REDUCE the prices in PEAK season says a lot about what they're expecting.

Of course, OPEC could fold tomorrow, mortgages could suddenly re-set at lower rates with no penalties, property values could skyrocket again, and feelings of job insecurity could vanish in a puff of smoke and mirrors all in time to spent 4th of July watching fireworks at EPCOT and gladly paying through the nose for the priviledge.......but I doubt it'll happen, don't you?

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 04:55:37 GMT

I vist vegas once a month and I have many connections in vegas and I can tell you vegas is not hurting it is currently in its biggest construction hotel booom since Wynn introduced mirage/Ti Recently the Palazzo opened and Encore is expected to follow soon. These discounts John happen all the time, I have friends who recieve these emails through the e-clubs and it is common knowledge that in off seaons you can get vegas at a lower rate... if you look at th 99 rate at mgm grand its only valid certain dates that arent historcially busy but if you look at the weekend rates for the mgm business as usual. On any given weekend Vegas occpupany still remains at 85-90 percent . On any given week vegas is the -number one convention destination and the occupancy is in the 70 percent range coming up in april is the national association of broadcasters convention for a week 100,000 people converge on that town and sell out all the hotels. Again I dont think vegas is hurting you will always find discounts at mgm , and lower rates at the palazzo they entice you in then they get to gamble , buy expensive dinners , and go see great shows. Please fact check your articles before writing it.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 06:28:48 GMT

Lighttragic, the facts are in--see Jim's addendum--and I freely stated that big events like NAB and CES bring in big crowds, but the whole point is to keep those rooms filled all the time, and that is why they are discounting deeper in compensation for gas price rises and economic fears. I never said Vegas was "hurting" only that it is (a) compensating as it always does for economic realities and that (b) other vacation/resort locales like Orland often follow its lead as Jim's sources info suggests is actually happening.

BTW, I attend the NAB regularly in my professional capacity and will again upcoming, and their hype-level to get attendance this year has been MARKEDLY higher intensity. There's nothing wrong with that, but it costs money and they wouldn't spend it unless they felt they needed to do so. Of course, with many network and local stations cutting back of late due to fall-offs in advertising sales, the WGA strike, and other economic reasons, that means the pool of folks who attend NAB shrinks as those employment spheres shrink, too.

For those not familiar, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) is a convention that runs a wide gamut of local station execs, technology engineers, on-air and off air personnel, movie and TV studio folks, computer hardware and software people, and every kind of gizmo and tool user and vendor associated with the whole broadcast media universe and everyone who wants to sell things to them or schmooze them. The convention is huge for good reason and is, as I've stated, one of the two biggest to hit Vegas every year. HOWEVER...even that industry has had some economic contractions, which explains why even though I'm registered and going, I am getting MORE brochures, MORE emails, and MORE pitches to both attend in general and visit particular booths specifically than ever before.

Am I saying there'll be deserted halls at the LV Convention Center? Far from it. I'm saying that to make SURE they get the attendance they need, they're making an extra effort--and so are the Vegas hotels for this summer season and, it seems. so are those in Orlando.

Those are the facts. Check 'em yourself and see.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 08:33:59 GMT

I would think that John is right. Disney and the Orlando metro area have to get on board with this model, or they run the risk of losing the young, urban consumers that they are spending so much to attract. As a member of that demographic, I have to say that Vegas already caters to us. It's already a huge uphill fight for Disney. They might as well start offering discounts.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 10:51:53 GMT

I'm not sure I'd call the numbers Jim showed us "facts" ... statistics by themselves are completely meaningless. There could be other factors influencing hotel rates that have nothing to do with the softening economy. Without some detailed analysis by a statistician, I'm not willing to take those numbers as anything more than, well, numbers.

All I know is that attendance at WDW is still through the roof. I haven't seen any signs of softening hotel occupancies and there certainly haven't been any deep discounts released. Since Disney plans these things well ahead of time (discounts and free dining are already out for September) based on advance bookings, I wouldn't hold my breath looking for any cheapies any time in the near future.

This article, while moderately interesting, is really nothing more than some wild speculation based on Mr. Wayne's decidedly unscientific analysis of current Las Vegas discounts (which may or may not have any bearing on coming discounts in Orlando) and some unverified numbers that Jim provided.

I think next year might be a good year to get some deep discounts on Disney vacations, but for 2008 I wouldn't hold your breath. Next year the pent-up demand will be mostly exhausted after two solid years of the YoaMD and people will most likely refrain from booking 2009 trips this year out of fear that the economic downturn will continue.

Remember, most people already have their '08 trips booked and it's not very likely many will cancel because gas costs another 20 cents a gallon. Who wants to disappoint the kids over an extra hundred bucks??

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 11:01:40 GMT

Whatevah. Listen, there's a larger issue here we've all been talking about in other threads--notably the ones about the bridge to Liberty Square and the one about closing down much of PI right before the summer season--planning and how it is done successfully.

If you're inept, what you do is this: You WAIT for your business to slack off (lower occupancy, fewer customers, whatever) and THEN you act to try to "recover" it.

If you're wise, what you do is this: You ANTICIPATE the POTENTIAL for it to slack off and take action PROACTIVELY in advance of it. If you do this right, nobody even notices a slight downtick.

It applies to whether you wait for a bridge to get so rotten you have to shut down or divert a parade during busy times to fix it vs. doing it during the "off season" with planning aforethought, or whether you shut down dance venues with no immediate replacements right as the biggest population of spenders is out there looking for somewhere--anywhere to dance.

The people who manage big hotels and resorts, in Florida, Nevada, or, if there are any, Greenland, have that same choice, and the most professional of them are planning months, quarters, and years in advance for everything from how many employees to seek to how many sheets to buy to how much shrimp to stock in the all-you-can-eat buffet. In this modern era, with computer help, this has become a pretty established and effort-free science. Smart companies have no excuse. Dumb ones nobody to blame but themselves.

We won't KNOW that this expectation is real until we see lower prices in a big way, but my simple point was that we're already seeing that in an unusual way in Vegas and, when Jim looked into it, he got hard numbers that say Orlando's following suit (numbers he abbreviated here but shared with me AFTER I'd written the piece in great detail which bear this out.)

You can agree or disagree--your choice. My point was the LARGER lesson re. planning and managing anything AND to say to those who are making practical decisions about where and how to spend their upcoming summer....well, this might work to your benefit, so stay alert and look around before you snap at the first deal you see. In fact, while I wrote this as a "maybe" to publish here, Jim insisted that due to the TIMELY nature of the information it needed to run right away. And so it did. I hope it is useful--genuinely useful. 'nuff said.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 11:22:29 GMT

I did say that the article was moderately interesting and that was mostly due to its relevance in terms of keeping people informed of the potential for coming discounts.

But at the same time, I'm just not sure the fact that there are (very modest) discounts being made available in Vegas necessarily translates into pending discounts in WDW. The audiences for the two locales and the overall traveler profiles are very different.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 13:55:03 GMT

Fair enough, but I repeat--I get these offers from Vegas hotels virtually every week, and the timing and degree of the deals being offered now is substantially different than the usual. That's what caught my eye, and that's why I wrote the piece after checking with sources there that I was right. When Jim found that Orlando sources agreed, well, that's "whyfor" the article was posted--because it's true.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 14:42:37 GMT

For me, it comes down to the difference I noticed when I lived in NYC. When I went to the Titanic exhibit in Atlantic City, I was on a Greyhound bus full of senior citizens. Whereas the Hampton bus companies both are pretty nice. And that's really something I hope the tourism biz explores, because it'll just bring in more relaxed guests (be sure to get the bus/hotel package!) with a little more money to spend.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 15:56:26 GMT

I think a BIG difference is that Vegas caters to locals and doesn't get a BIG international clientele (why go to Vegas when Monte Carlo or Singapore are closer). BUT WDW and DL do get a BIG international clientele. AND with the weakening dollar, it makes sense now to go to DL or WDW. A softening economy is going to hurt non-Disney lodgings (more than Disney lodgings) because outsiders (non-East coasters, new visitors and international visitors) are going to stay on property.

This is the same issue that happened about a month ago when a BIG investment house downgraded Disney because of this very same issue and Disney said ABSOLUTELY NOT. See http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/01/29/dont-sell-disney.aspx

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 16:11:35 GMT

Great Job, Johnwayne! I enjoy reading your comments as much as the articles themselves (no offense, Mr. Hill) and I'm glad you're on board as a contributor too! You seem to have great insight into the entertainment industry and It's nice to see the author of an article doing follow-up comments as well.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 16:32:53 GMT

JohnWayne said:

"Fair enough, but I repeat--I get these offers from Vegas hotels virtually every week, and the timing and degree of the deals being offered now is substantially different than the usual. That's what caught my eye, and that's why I wrote the piece after checking with sources there that I was right. When Jim found that Orlando sources agreed, well, that's "whyfor" the article was posted--because it's true."

You make a good point, though. Even if the offers themselves are moderate in nature, if you're saying the volume of the offers is going up that probably means something at least in regards to tourism in Vegas goes. Honestly, I'll be the first to admit that I don't really know bubkes about Vegas (outside of the fact that it's an awesome place to gamble ... something I've partken of numerous times).

I still maintain, though, that the customer base for the two is very different and a downturn in Vegas doesn't necessarily dictate one coming for WDW. I think jedited mentioned a couple that are pretty key, although I'll not profess to have detailed information on how many visitors to Vegas are from overseas as opposed to those visiting WDW. I would think it might be seasonal to a degree.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 20:51:27 GMT

jedited, I'm sorry, but there are NO locals in Las Vegas. Its in a desert. Unless you call L.A. "local" at 5 hours or more drive away or an hour plane ride...but by that one-hour flight standard, isn't Atlanta "local" to WDW? Secondly, Vegas gets a HUGE international visitorship from the Orient. HUGE. Its part of why US firms agreed to invest huge sums in Macao and why there have been talk for at least 30 years (especially in the 80's when tourism there fell off drastically) about Hawaii voting in gaming and putting casinos along Waikiki--to shortshop Chinese and Japanese gamblers 2000 miles closer to home. But they still come--to the point where there are times when famous-to-them-and-UNKNOWN-to-Americans Japanese pop stars play the big hotels (as do Latino stars because Vegas also gets a big South American custom, as does Disneyland btw.)

You also have to understand that Vegas is a key attraction for foreign visitors who are on what tourism folks out here call "The Wild West Circuit"--they fly into either L.A. OR San Francisco, then get on a bus that takes them on this group of attractions in whatever north/south or south/north direction makes sense depending on the starting point: IF in L.A. first, let's say---L.A./Hollywood/Universal/Disneyland then possibly Palm Springs, Phoenix/Scottsdale, Grand Canyon, VEGAS, Death Valley, Tahoe/The Sierras, The Wine Country of Napa/Sonoma, then ending in SF or vice versa. Foreign visitors are also a huge part of the Grand Canyon's annual visitorship--nearly 2.5 million of its 4.5-5 million visitors, and MOST of those come in FROM Las Vegas as a day or two-day trip to break up their gambling sprees partly because there is no airport anywhere near there of any size--Flagstaff's is tiny and only has commuter flights. Indeed, some of those GC tourists don't even land--they fly THROUGH the canyon on "scenic" flights from Vegas.

Trust me--the LOCALS in Vegas are not gamblers and tend to dine at the "Locals" hotels such as the "Station" chain in the burbs or, in the case of many retirees, populate the race and sports "book" parlors and cheap buffets. Besides, locals live in their HOMES, not in rented hotel rooms.

UPDATE fyi: I just got another "pitch" email from my favorite hotel (and the nicest in Vegas by a HUGE degree) Steve Wynn's "Wynn" (which, if you go look at the photo on their site, is also probably the only hotel in history to be shaped like GUMBY...but I digress-smile) They're plugging Mothers' Day weekend sales with a HUGE room rate discount, special packages at BARGAIN prices, and here's just ONE example:

"Tableau" is one of the finest if not the finest restaurant in Las Vegas. Truly elegant food and served in a kind of French gazebo of a room overlooking the pool and gardens of the hotel. The last time I dined there I was sitting next to star chef Giada DeLaurentis who told me it was HER favorite place in town, just to give you an idea. They are doing a $100 per person special Mother's Day brunch, and remember please that this is a SMALL restaurant--I doubt it even seats 75 diners, max. So what if I told you that this email I got from Wynn offers "For $180 per person, you can have a room for the night AND TWO tickets to the special Tableau brunch." So let's see...that's $360 (plus taxes and tip of course) of which $200 is the brunch--so that's a room at a $350/night hotel with 1,000-thread count sheets and luxury we all wish we had at home for $180....and they're doing it to HOPE TO SELL the Brunch because, it seems, they're concerned about filling the restaurant otherwise. And this is MAY. What will summer bring? We'll see....but if my wife and I weren't doing Mother's Day in the South this year with all the kids, at those prices I'd be flying them into VEGAS for it. BTW, rooms alone at Wynn are going for a special $159 for about 6 nights around that weekend.

One last note--the weak dollar does indeed mean that the USA is "on sale" for foreign visitors right now, as people in NYC shops have known for about 6 months. But consider--that is something that says to hoteliers in Vegas or Orlando or anywhere "Hey, they'll take up the slack because it's such a deal!" but....somehow they're STILL lowering rates and making special offers IN SPITE OF that addition to the vacation mix this summer. So in fact, the dollar decline's LACK OF EFFECT on this discounting only further proves my point.

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 23:06:05 GMT

John- First I commend you for fueling a discussion between the readers and the writers I think its important to have that connection I wish the owner of the site would consider doing that on certain key articles and while at times it seems like people are willing to prove you wrong or disagree with you but thats part of the debate.

With that being said I think your article has merit Mgm Mirage was downgraded by Moodys very similar to Disney ,however Mgm Mirage has countered... January and February are historically the slowest times of the year in vegas. March results are crucial to really get an estimate of how the year will go. Vegas last year brought in nearly 40 million visitors and racked up a record profit of 10.6 billion yes thats right billion. It also had record occupancy 90.5 percent first time since the mid 90's when the overall hotel room number was much smaller Just like Disney which is coming off a record year of double digit growth. We have to remember about Vacation spots especially for las vegas its all about people with discretionary income . Unless your willing to stay in Downtown vegas or at the the Tropicana or a lower level hotel your not going to find great room rates during busy periods including weekends. This isnt old vegas anymore Buffets arent cheap restruants arent cheap , shows arent cheap . I will address why you are getting these offers in a minute.

So Disney is in a simliar situation its all about people who can afford to go on vacations or willing to rack up debt unfortunately thats the way it goes. will Disney be able to sustain this growth. I definitely think Disneyland will because of its high amount of locals who attend that park, I think Disneyworld will be able to sustain that as well if they market well enough to International visitors due to the weakening dollar as well as the regional market.

Now back to the vegas and why your getting these offers. Anytime someone signs up for a players card they will get offers in the mail/email they dont have to be a big spender , high roller or whale you will receive these offers. Its the same for those who just sign up through the internet its something smart and savvy to do to save money. The venetian suite package thats 179 a night is 199 on Saturdays and only available two saturdays in April. The mgm grand package which is 99 a night is actually only one week special april 13th-17th. Las vegas has gone from a place where gambling ruled and cheap buffets and entertainment can be found it is now a multi faceted town where hotel income, Dining Income, Gambling income , and club income accounts for the total bottom line for the revenue of the town. While i agree your article has some merit that people should be concerned the deals your getting is nothing knew its a trick that goes back a long time . If you book your rooms online without any of these specials you will see that the regular room rate for alot of these place are redicolousy high 449 a night at the wynn for the Mothers day week and so on and so on. Besides my personal collection of emails I look at from the deals I get and my friends get here is an article that talks about both of our points http://www.usatoday.com/travel/destinations/2008-02-21-vegas-2008_N.htm

I look forward to further discussing it with everyone on the board

Lighttragic

Wynn Las Vegas

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/las-vegas-growth-fuels-casino/story.aspx?guid=%7B748CAFF3-4373-4C72-958E-8FEE65A66341%7

Stratoshephere and its subsidiaries

http://www.lvrj.com/business/17079641.html

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 23:13:33 GMT

one more quick thing november-february are always the best time to go to vegas because the rates are cheaper could that be why the rates have gone down according to Mr hill just something to ponder what will happen over the next 4 months ? hmm

re: Will Orlando follow Las Vegas' lead and soon begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 00:10:26 GMT

The people in Vegas have been great businesspeople, and know how to act during any economic slowdown. They also know that discounts will bring more people to Vegas, who will then go home and tell all their friends what a great time they had. Las Vegas is very lucky, as it is built to withstand economic fluctuations. Should the economy completely tank, enough fat-cats exist to keep the luxurious hotels, the stores, the shows, and the tables in Vegas filled with cash. Orlando is pretty much the same way.

Vegas' real problem will be the day a prolonged drought should hit the entire southwest region. Should water be the problem- and in a desert it already is- only then will the crap hit the fan on the strip.

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 00:32:38 GMT

I always wondered why Disney did not leverage their associations with other companies. When they had an "Official Airline" (Eastern?) did they make a deal for reduced flights on Eastern to counter the 70's gas crisis? I don't believe they did.

Wasn't Exxon their official gasoline supplier, and the only one on-property, until recently? Why couldn't/didn't they work that relationship to encourage those driving down I-95 to save their Exxon receipts for a rebate on the gas prices after 9-11?

Certainly Magic Express helps encourage travel, but I wonder if there isn't some other way to make vacations more attractive to the gun-shy. Here in Maryland you have local bus companies offering cheap-to-almost-free trips to Atlantic City. They charge you a token amount, but then give you rolls of quarters (they hope you will gamble with them, but you could just keep them in your pocket). This makes the cost of the trip little or even free. The bus companies get reimbursed by the Casinos for bringing in the crowds. Of course, you could thwart their plan by exiting the bus at the sponsoring casino and walking over to their competitor. Evidently few do that, and the plan works. These are day-trips, and WDW wants people in their hotel rooms, but could WDW offer similar trips for those in Florida (or Georgia) cities?

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 01:10:55 GMT

Good points all. And yes, I understand how the Vegas e-promos work. The other thing to consider re. Vegas and, more particularly Vegas, is that in "hard times" the big issue is to get people to make the decision to go AT ALL. The years when people say "Well, what if we went to Disneyworld NEXT year, kids! We went last year, and that'll give 'em another year to add new attractions." Even a teensy incremental increase in "yes" decisions in a year when "no" is easier and more preavlent due to economics is a HUGE difference in the bottom line. Also remember that while to some degree capacities vs. expenses can be adjusted, it basically costs the same to open the doors, turn on the lights, etc. etc. unless you resort (no pun intended) to closing wings or attractions or whatever (such as the shutdowns in off season of the Life and Health pavilion at EPCOT etc. etc.) So the cost-per-guest is amortized over larger numbers if you play it right.

This is doubly true for high-end properties which cannot afford to give a "bad show" because they've cut back in softer times. They have to be 100% excellent ALL the time or suffer irreparable drops in reputation and word-of-mouth. Furthermore, at huge attractions such as Orlando or Vegas, even "slow" times are MASSIVE compared to other places, so the people you potentially disappoint if you cut back during 'slow" periods result in massive bad PR, and in this day and age of online consumer review sites that is only multiplied.

Word of mouth is the KEY advertising for ANY entertainment enterprise. I know people who've been head PR folks at major studios who will tell you that no matter how many millions they spend on commercials, billboards, ads and press puffery, if the movie opens on Friday and the first blush of customers tells their friends it stinks, you're dead. Period. And nowadays this is even MORE true mainly because in today's economics, 99.9% of all movie releases are, in effect, paid-for-by-the-ticket-buyers PROMOTIONAL campaigns for the DVD sales where the real profits come from. Other than for megablockbusters, that's the rule.

LASTLY re. drought? Relax. Vegas has this little thing called Lake Mead, aka the huge body of water resulting from the damming of the Colorado. Yes, it is lower than usual. Yes, there are droughts. But nobody's going thirsty in Las Vegas anytime soon, folks. The areas of drought issues in the Southwest that ARE seriously impacted are, for one example, the Grand Canyon area where a lack of winter snows results in serious water table drops. But Vegas will not have water issues....besides, nobody goes to Vegas to drink WATER (Smile...I'm imagining a remake of Casablanca set at a Moroccan-themed Vegas hotel: "I came to Las Vegas for the waters" "Waters, Rick? But we're in the middle of a desert!" "I was misinformed.")

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 01:42:04 GMT

It is interesting that this particular article was posted on the same day as the announcement of the continuation of the "free dining" program and the first commericial I've seen (at least in recent months) promoting the "Family of four for $1,600 Disney package."

All of this seems early relative to last year and I can't help but think that it has to be in anticipation of a travel slump due to the issues w/ the economy. It is also crunch time for taxes and people are thinking about how to spend thier refunds as well as that extra cash that they hope to get from the economy stimulus program.

Anyone in entertainment and tourism who isn't thinking about ways to keep people interested in his/her brand is probably not going to be around to see an economic recovery, and this I can tell you from painful experience as we put a lot of effort to keep our own business ventures intact after 9/11. There are enough vacant facilities in both Vegas and Orlando to attest to this particular reality.

Chris

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 08:38:47 GMT

Good points, and speaking of taxes....it is a well-known reality in the Hospitality industry that by and large (and not including such phenomena as the "snowbirds" in late Feb-thru-spring in Florida and the southwest) the ultimate lull period is always from New Year's through late April due to (a) people being tapped out from Christmas and (b) anticipating April 15th tax issues and (c) working more overtime and taking less vacation time to make up for time taken off in the run-up to the holidays and/or time spent goofing off to do shopping and otherwise be distracted by the holidays.

BUT speaking of tax issues, another comes to mind: Since the average couple in this country is about to get a tax-free gimme from the government of $1200 in "stimulus package" money (the checks begin going out in May) maybe the marketers are also trying to be there to suggest how to spend that cash on a vacation with an advance-purchase/no-refund requirement instead of a new video game system or, horror-of-horrors, paying off some debt?

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 10:49:17 GMT

I think you may be right about trying to incent people in regards to their stimulus cash ... My wife works in sales for one of the major U.S. diet companies and I know they're gearing up for a big push to try and get people to use their stimulus cash to sign up for the plan.

I wouldn't be shocked if this was part of something similar.

Vegas hotel deals and a few random links

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 11:27:25 GMT

First let me just say that this post on poverty tourism and rich people's morals has gotten a number of interesting comments in the last day or two - it might be worth your time to join the discussion. Second,...

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 11:48:09 GMT

poverty tourism and rich people's morals? Whaaaa??? But when you hit the guy's link/id, he THEN goes on to trackback to our discussion. NO relationship otherwise, because the one he's talking about is about expensive banquets and tours of poverty in THAILAND! AH, the nosequiter nature of the net!

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 14:58:50 GMT

What I am saying John is I as well as my other friends get these same offers all the time and its nothing really new I would say the consitency is the same as two years ago sometimes I get one or two or day from various properties but if you read the fine print on these offers and I have found just about every offer you mentioned in the article it has limited weekend availabilty such as only two saturdays total for the venetians and the weekdays they offer arent considered primetime or going to hurt for vegas. I am happy show these offers to anyone else on the board . Disneyworld will never market the same ways as vegas does with weekly discounts or one week specials its just not how they run things.

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 21:12:08 GMT

The offers have increased, the discounts have increased heading into summer, and this increase is unprecedented. Jim's insiders say that rates are going DOWN in Orlando compared to a year ago and that these decreases, likewise, are more intense as the months go by into summer. Those are the facts. I leave it to all to draw their own conclusions and make their own plans accordingly. Period.

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 14:16:21 GMT

Ok so the offers have increased does that mean that disney will do a 96hr special similar to the mgm grand offer your recieved for april 13th-17th? so they wil send out mass emails once a week or twice a week getting people glued to the computer to get the best possible offer?

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 13:20:03 GMT

Apples....oranges.....grapes.....etc. etc. etc. Yawn. Sigh. Next?

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 05:11:53 GMT

John, Up untill this point I have been impressed with your ability to respond to readers debate. I have provided information with sources and the offers to counter your arguement you have done the same but is it really neccesary to leave that comment. I am dissapointed by your choice of words.

The difference between Jimhills site and other is that any debate and discussion i have been involved with has never resorted to name calling or silly remarks untill now. I hope this trend with you doesnt continue. If you are tired of talking about it, you dont have to write back in the comment section jim chooses to email people back or address questions in why for .. but again dont bring down the people who read and contribute to this site as well.

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Mon, 05 May 2008 20:52:05 GMT

Once upon a time, I wrote this article and responded to some who said "Oh, pooh-pooh (no bearpun intended) this is irrelevant and Vegas isn't having problems and the economy isn't going to affect anything and these offers you're getting are just the same old same old.)

Today, I read online the following article: http://www.newsweek.com/id/135638

It is in Newsweek, in their "Economy" section, and what it says is this--Vegas is HURTING bad due to high airline prices, low economic results and the housing crunch and is doing all it can to overcome same. Just like Disney will do and, per Jim's own stats, IS doing.

When I got bored with the inaccurate mis-restatement of my points, I said adios to the discussion. I got kvetched at for something I never did "namecalling" by the same person who thought the FACTS being presented were "silly" and kept the pot boiling with those same MISstatements of my points. For all who haven't the energy to read the whole article, here's one paragraph that makes its points:

"It's even hurting the city of Las Vegas, the economy of which was once thought to be impervious to the economic swings suffered by the rest of the country. Not anymore. According to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), Las Vegas has seen gambling revenues fall only once since 1970: in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terror attacks they dropped 1 percent in 2002 from 2001. So far this year they've fallen 4 percent, the number of conventions held has dropped 10.4 percent, and average daily room rates were off 3.8 percent in the first two months of 2008, according to the most recent data available. Visitor volume was up 1.2 percent through February, but market analysts say that's because of the extra day provided by this being a leap year; March's figures will likely put the year-to-date numbers in negative territory. The stock price of MGM Mirage, owner of Bellagio, Mirage and eight other Strip resorts, has halved, from $100.50 in October to about $49 on Friday. In recent weeks the company eliminated 440 middle management jobs to save $75 million annually. "We made a structural change in our company to become more efficient and provide the same level of service, but we did have to advance that effort because we were also seeing a softening in the marketplace," says MGM Mirage spokesman Alan Feldman."

Now if you think those realities are things that the Mouse is immune to...well, that's your choice. And if you think that calling attention to those realities is somehow anything like saying that Disney will employ the EXACT SAME marketing techniques as Vegas--which I never, ever said but which my oh-so-high-and-mighty detrator claimed and which led me to get bored with being misquoted and misstated, well, more power to you.

And if updating an article with MORE FACTS that CONTINUE to make the point is a "trend"...get used to it. 'cause the FACTS always prevail.

Want more facts too? Guess what "the largest corporate bankruptcy of the year" is about to be? Go look. Yawn. Sigh. Next?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121001918657068461.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

re: Will Orlando soon follow Las Vegas' lead and begin offering deep discounts on vacation packages ?

John Wayne — Tue, 06 May 2008 13:16:58 GMT

Kudos, John. I saw the same thing in the NY Times and thought back on your article here.

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