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Today's your last chance to enter JHM's guess-"Dead-Man's-Chest"-opening-weekend-gross contest

Today's your last chance to enter JHM's guess-"Dead-Man's-Chest"-opening-weekend-gross contest

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This is just a quick update on the contest that we've been running this week at JHM. One where the site's readers are being asked to make predictions as to how well they think "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" will do over its opening weekend.


Copyright 2006 Disney Enterprises

As of 11:30 Wednesday, well over a hundred people have come forward and made predictions:

JHM reader's guess at "Dead Man's Chest" opening weekend gross
JHM reader's name
$46.6 million
Chlane
$61.3 million
kingofswing
$67.5 million
disney my second home
$68 million
A. K. Hershey
$68.1 million
Stevie1derful
$69.5 million
i love donald
$71.3 million
kelderek
$71.6 million
Chipnme1962
$72.3 million
TerryTiger
$74.5 million
curmudgeon
$78.4 million
Ripthorn
$80.1 million
pfitzsi
$81 million
ConnerLives
$82 million
outsider624
$82.5 million
colelaus
$82.6 million
OrangeWhip
$82.7 million
Gargamike
$85 million
leodavinci
$85.3 million
Fictitious
$85.5 million
peoplemover
$86.6 million
tolkoto
$86.9 million
kronos77
$87,550,000
Rob
$88 million
mattyp0119
$88.2 million
bigWALL
$89.2 million
original19
$89.8 million
Oogie13oogie
$90.1 million
Disneyfamily
$90.2 million
englishboy
$90.3 million
LenTesta
$90.6 million
DizneeProfitEar
$91.5 million
Lee
$91.7 million
kgforce
$92.3 million
Mister Glass
$92.5 million
nwe
$92.6 million
Dancing with the Stars!
$93 million
CraigSam
$93.5 million
shoewee
$93.4 million
unit42ffd
$94.2 million
rjrip
$94.5 million
peanutj
$94.6 million
pschnebs
$94.8 million
abogdan
$95.2 million
dclyde06
$95.2 million
bravesfn1
$95.7 million
percy
$96.2 million
doceagle
$96.3 million
dsnypaul
$96.4 million
DwAdale
$97.4 million
Addie Boy
$98.2 million
technobrat
$98.5 million
mschwert11
$98.6 million
Moonliner
$99 million
orljustin
$100 million
RoadDogBC
$100 million
N2DVD
$100.2 million
icrra
$101.2 million
crow
$101.7 million
ESVADJ
$102.2 million
Yensid321
$102.4 million
DisneyScott
$102.6 million
Nitemuze2
$102.6 million
brotherdave
$103.2 million
Cybergosh
$103.5 million
Electric Panda
$104 million
Bill5925
$104,444,000.44
btbarlow
$104.7 million
RidePhoto101
$105 million
supersanborn
$105 million
mawnck
$106.2 million
DisneyFanatic001
$107.1 million
swfanatic
$107.35 million
jeffsch
$108.5 million
RRapier33
$109 million
juampi
$109.6 million
Davidgrahammd
$110 million
maskdmirag
$110.35 million
BigDaddy
$110.8 million
sgtslovak
$111 million
Smilee306
$111.11 million
fliewr
$111.12 million
craiglisa
$112 million
Abigail's Uncle
$112.5 million
a-mad
$112.6 million
Buck
$113.13 million
jordn613
$113.7 million
k-man
$113.7 million
volvodrivingdude
$114 million
anonymouse
$114.35 million
bhb007
$115.1 million
AuntDisney
$115.4 million
zapatabe
$115,527,014
Xited4disney
$116,525,113
RichrayM
$116,985,000
cruisedude4
$117,110,708
zenifrax
$117.2 million
jocksparrow
$117.3 million
ocjedi
$117.3 million
mark4407
$117.46 million
WelcomeHomeOKW
$117.5 million
manutdfan
$117.5 million
POTCgurl
$117.6 million
greenyskp
$117.7 million
TZA
$118.215 million
Skull Rock Pirate
$119.3 million
pixiegirltink
$120.3 million
$120.3 million
$121 million
Jackthepumpkinking
$121.6 million
cbissonette
$122 million
campdisney
$122.5 million
AlexK
$122.7 million
JenLoy
$123,023,023.42
GeoffreyNeasedotcom
$123.6 million
PintoColvig
$124.3 million
Friar Storm
$124.6 million
Epcotrob
$124.6 million
ChuckBo
$124.7 million
pixiesfan37
$125 million
Skibammer
$126.2 million
AnnB
$126.4 million
MosquitoControl
$126.5 million
pacomama
$127,217,009.42
hagen
$128.2 million
megaelch
$128.4 million
jennifer1013
$129.5 million
vishazz
$130 million
brresler
$130.5 million
mgbrooks
$132.6 million
muppetaphrodite
$133.4 million
blackcauldron85
$135.63 million
aggie96
$136.2 million
mnmears
$142 million
Uncle Ed
$144.4 million
Gracie
$148 million
ennsm
$160 million
C33
$167.5 million
jonyyeh
$210.5 million
dlr50th
$317 million
yensidtlaw1969

The JHM reader who comes closest to predicting the exact figure that this Gore Verbinski film earns over its first Friday, Saturday and Sunday in domestic release will win a "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" gift pack. Which includes:


If you'd like to get in on this "Dead Man's Chest" -related fun, just follow this link over to Monday's article. Then post your prediction for this film's opening weekend gross in that story's Talk Back section. All entries must be received before midnight EST tonight.

I know that this probably goes without saying ... But let me say this anyway: JHM's "Dead Man's Chest" opening weekend gross contest is strictly for entertainment purposes. Anyone looking for a hidden agenda here ... Well, they're not going to find one.

"So why am I holding this contest then?," you ask. Well, first of all, I have this large pile of "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" books that's currently cluttering up my home. And I was kind of hoping that I could eventually pass them along to some JHM reader who'd really appreciate them.

And secondly ... Well, Wall Street & Hollywood spend tens of millions of dollars each year in an effort to determine -- well in advance of their actual release dates -- what various films are going to earn once they hit theaters. And in spite of all of the brain power & technology that's typically involved in making these box prediction predictions, they're almost invariably wrong.

So I just thought that it might interesting to see what would happen if we threw this sort of box office prognostication open to JHM readers. To see how they'd fare in comparison to Wall Street & Hollywood's best experts when it came to predicting how "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" would do over its opening weekend.

To be honest, the question that I'm really dying to ask the JHM reader who comes closest in this contest is "How did you actually come up with that figure? Was it a WAG (I.E. Wild Ass Guess) on your part? Or did you use some sort of formula to come up with that number?"

I guess we'll know more on Tuesday morning after I post the results on this JHM reader's contest. And the winner hopefully come forward to reveal how he so accurately predicted what the "Pirates" sequel was going to earn over its opening weekend.

Speaking of which ... If you want to get in on all the fun (As well as possibly win a big pile of "Pirates of the Caribbean" -related booty), be sure & submit your entry before 12 midnight EST tonight.

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  • No, noo, Jim, it's not "conspiracy theory"--
    It's "Jim...you don't even know you're DOING it anymore."

    Disney wouldn't give you numbers to play with, so you came running to us to give you all *our* numbers, so you could feel important on Monday morning.
    Well, guess what, Jim?--We're -not- Wall Street.  We're not even Ain't It Cool News.
    We're just a buncha very subjectively skewed fanboys on a website that shouldn't even be bothering with the subject.  And our "guesses" don't...mean...CRAP.

    If you haven't guessed by now, between you and Disney, I'm siding with the Disney executives who were optimistic about the movie, but felt that giving you a number to play with was None Of Your Freakin' Beeswax.
    We got into enough trouble over that with "Cars", they know that, you *should* know that, and the fact that a lot of very gullible people are whining about a good movie not making as much as Somebody Else's Imagination and causing other gullible people to believe it is something that should not happen again.  Not with this movie, I'm inclined to say, and not with anybody's.  And if you seemed a little frustrated a few articles ago because they wouldn't play with you, that's because they're not LETTING it happen again.  And bra-freakin'-vo for them.

    If you want to pretend next week's movie is "hit" or "flop", use your -own- imagination, not mine; from what we've seen, it seems to be a lot more fertile.
    In other words, Jim?...STOP IT.
  • I don't think this is a case of what happened on JHM with "Cars".  I believe Jim when he says he just has books he'd like to give away.  I think it's fun to see everyone's guesses.  Way to go, Jim! :-)
  • $78 Million...more or less.... I think with the larger screen plasmas and home theaters on the rise, people don't rush out to the movies to overpay for high ticket prices and even higher consession food prices. While I love the first film of this series, I won't be surprised to see lower than expected numbers at first...but it'll have the legs to shoot over the $250 mil mark domestically in the end.

    I'd love film houses to devote more of an effort toward bringing "family movie night" as a much more affordable event...rather than a family of four to expect to pay over $75 for a two hour film.

    To shoot to a similar off topic, I'd love to see Sunday nights return back to being "Disney Family night" on TV. Fond memories of taking a bath sunday night then settling down in front of the tv to first watch the Muppets and then Disney. Whether it was "True life Adventures" or some animated shorts, it was a great opportunity for families to enjoy some wholesome entertainment and share in the laughter and magic Disney provides.

    -Just a dream of a big kid at heart
  • $115,461,961
    - Disneymarvel
  • >>If you haven't guessed by now, between you and Disney, I'm siding with the Disney executives who were optimistic about the movie, but felt that giving you a number to play with was None Of Your Freakin' Beeswax. <<

    Wow . . . now the Disney executives are tailoring their public statements specifically toward giving Jim Hill a hard time.

    Way to go, Jim!
  • I repeat:

    Seems to me that having comments on this site demonstrates the futility of comments on this site.  Jim Hill entertains and, more often than not, illuminates some dark corner of Disney history or potential future.  That'd be why I have been following him for years, not because of the delightfully vapid comments posted after his articles.  What, exactly, is wrong with running a little contest on this site?  Does anyone here actually think Hollywood or Wall Street is going to see our fanboy predictions and base their next financial moves on them?  If you do, please consider a bowl of bran cereal or a piece of fruit for breakfast instead of crack.
  • I've given Derek's criticism some thought and I think he might have a point.  Jim Hill Media has held contests like this before.  A year or so ago, the site held a similar contest about what TV shows would be picked up.  I can't remember the name of the person who wrote the column, and I can't even find it in the site archive.  So, think about it.  The contest gets held and the guy that held it just disappears.  Coincidence?  I think not!
  • Y'know, I think I have to side with hagen.  While I like to have battles of wits with unarmed opponents as much as the next guy,  I'm really here to read what Jim has to say, not desperate teenage fanboy keyboard jockeys.  And while some Disney discussion boards occasionally break out into intelligent conversation, Jim's boards have never been able to rise above the level of "Jim sucks, yeah well you suck suckier".

    In honor of your wise words, hagen, I now take leave of these boards, leaving the bashers to run free and unchallenged.  Hopefully the proprietors will give in to the futility of the thing and put these boards out of their misery, or at least move them back onto a separate site where they can stew in peace without stinking up the house.
  • I think it'll do 103 million and change - But only do about 321 mill domestic. I think the blockbuster as we know it is dying - I wrote a whole thesis on my web site (click the link or visit jospehdickerson.com.

    - Joe
  • $120.7 million, won't be like every other blockbuster this summer that has been a disappointment at the box office (Da Vinci Code, MI:3, Superman Returns) or ruined a franchise (X-Men 3). There is only one thing that Pirates has going against it-

    *Spoiler Warning*
    As I found out from Jim Hill's article the ending is a cliffhanger and Americans like to have their movies end with no questions left to answer.

    Pirates will be the biggest movie of the summer by far, no Matrix Reloaded here.
  • 99.5 million.  This will be the biggest hit of the summer...until Snakes on a Plane!
  • I think the three day opening gross will be $107.4 MM
  • I predicted that this would be a big hit! It will make $119.6 million.
  • I think this is bigger than most people are giving it credit. When Fandango says one of every three tickets is for Pirates then it will be HUGE.

    My guess is $150 million
  • Hey!  That 120.3 million was mine!  Tim Ericson, aka tericson...
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