By this time next week, we’ll know.
By that I mean: By this time next Monday morning, we’ll finally have the preliminary box office results in hand for the opening weekend of “Cars.” And then we’ll know for sure if John Lasseter’s newest film has actually met Wall Street’s expectations.
“And what exactly are Wall Street’s expectations for ‘Cars’ ?,” you ask. Well, I just spent this past weekend working the phones. Talking with various investment analysts & entertainment industry observers about what the magic number might be. As in: What’s “Cars” actually going to have to earn over its opening weekend in order to please the investment community?
Mind you, none of these folks were willing to go on the record with me. Supposedly out of concern that something that they’d tell me might then come back to haunt them, offend the Mouse in some way.
But – that said – there was a fairly strong consensus among these folks about what the magic number for “Cars” had to be. And that was that Pixar Animation Studios‘ latest release has to earn at least $75 million over its opening weekend in order to be seen as a box office success.
Copyright Disney Enterprises LLC
“And how did these people come up with that number?,” you query. It’s simple, really. They started by looking at how Pixar’s last six pictures did over their opening weekends. And – as you can see by the chart below …
Film Title | Domestic Opening weekend gross |
“The Incredibles” | $70.4 million |
“Finding Nemo” | $70.2 million |
“Monsters, Inc.” | $62.5 million |
“Toy Story II” | $57.3 million |
“A Bug’s Life” | $33.2 million |
“Toy Story” | $29.1 million |
… at least two of this animation studio’s films (I.E. “The Incredibles” & “Finding Nemo“) have earned over $70 million during their initial weekend in domestic release. So – taking into consideration the rise in theater admission prices well as adjusting for inflation — $75 million in 2006 dollars is roughly the equivalent of $70.2 / $70.4 million in 2003 / 2004 dollars.
So – in order to maintain the status quo (I.E. Not show any significant erosion in the perceived value of the Pixar brand) – “Cars” has to sell at least $75 million worth of tickets during its first weekend in domestic box office release. To earn anything less would send the wrong message to Wall Street. Like “Pixar’s hot streak is now over.” Or – worse than that – “Disney really did over-pay when it shelled out $7.4 billion for Pixar Animation Studios.”
Mind you, some investment analysts that I spoke with said that “Cars” has to earn over $80 million in order to totally silence the nay-sayers.But that was mostly because of what this film’s competition had already earned.
And when I say “competition,” I mean both what other non-Pixar computer animated films have earned over their opening weekends …
Film Title | Domestic opening weekend gross |
“Shrek II” | $108.0 million |
“Ice Age: The Meltdown” | $68.0 million |
“Shark Tales” | $47.6 million |
“Madagascar“ | $47.2 million |
“Ice Age” | $46.3 million |
“Shrek” | $42.3 million |
“Chicken Little” | $40.0 million |
“Dinosaur” | $38.8 million |
“Over the Hedge” | $38.4 million |
“Robots” | $36.0 million |
… as well as what other major motion pictures that have been released during the first half of 2006 have earned over their opening weekends.
Film Title | Opening Weekend | That weekend’s gross |
“X-Men: The Last Stand” | May 26 – 28 | $102.7 million |
“The Da Vinci Code” | May 19 – 21 | $77.0 million |
“Ice Age: The Meltdown” | March 31 – April 1 | $68.0 million |
“Mission Impossible III” | May 5 – 7 | $47.7 million |
“Scary Movie 4” | April 14 – 16 | $40.2 million |
“The Break-Up” | June 2 – 4 | $38.0 million |
“Ice Age: The Meltdown” (2ndweekend in release) | April 7 – 9 | $33.8 million |
“Madea’s Family Reunion” | February 24-26 | $30.0 million |
“Inside Man” | March 24-26 | $28.9 million |
“Big Momma’s House 2” | January 27-29 | $27.7 million |
The message that I kept hearing over & over wasn’t that “Cars” had to be No. 1. As in: That it had to beat either “Shrek II” ‘s $108.0 million and/or “X-Men: The Last Stand” ‘s $102.7 million. But – rather – that Pixar’s latest animated feature had to finish in the No. 2 position in order to be taken seriously. Or – at the very least – as a very strong No. 3.
Okay. Obviously, that’s a pretty high goal to shoot for. But given that there’s already pretty good buzz going about “Cars” (More importantly, that all the initial reviews for this new Pixar film have been generally positive) … That $75 – $80 million target for an opening weekend gross is still very achievable, right?
Well … In theory, yes. But according to a number of folks that I spoke with this past weekend, there has recently been a perceptible softening of audiences’ interest in animated features. Which could possibly have a significant impact on “Cars” opening weekend gross.
Don’t believe me? Okay, then check out the chart below. Which lists all of the significant animated features that has been released to theaters over the past 12 months.
Title | Film’s total Domestic Gross to date |
“Madagascar“ | $193.5 million |
“Ice Age: The Meltdown” | $191.0 million |
“Chicken Little” | $135.3 million |
“Over the Hedge” | $112.3 million |
“Curious George” | $58.3 million |
“Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit” | $56.1 million |
“Tim Burton’s The Corpse Bride” | $53.3 million |
“Hoodwinked” | $51.3 million |
“The Wild” | $35.3 million |
“Valiant” | $19.4 million |
“Doogal” | $7.4 million |
Admittedly, the grosses for “Madagascar,” “Ice Age: The Melt Down,” “Chicken Little” and “Over The Hedge” are below impressive. But – if you look just below those four film titles – you should be able to quickly pick up on a pattern.
Yep, at least seven of these animated features actually ran out of gas before they were able to cross the $60 million threshold during their initial domestic releases. With two of these films crashing & burning before they were even able to sell $20 million of tickets.
Now as to why exactly that happened … To be honest, it’s hard to say. Given that four of these under-performing pictures were done in CG, two others were stop-motion while the seventh & final film was traditionally animated … Blanket statements like “Movie-goers have grown tired of seeing feature length cartoons like this” really don’t work in situations like this.
But that said … A significant number of animated films have already been released to theaters this year. And right behind “Cars” comes Sony’s “Monster House” & Warner Bros. “The Ant Bully” & Paramount’s “Barnyard” & Fox’s “Everyone’s Hero” & Sony’s “Open Season” & Dreamworks’ “Flushed Away” & Warner Bros. “Happy Feet.” And given that there’s now the Cartoon Network as well as Toon Disney along with animated television series in prime-time like “The Simpsons,” “Family Guy” and “American Dad” … Well, how much animation is too much animation? When does all this stuff stop seeming special?
I’ll say this much: Based on survey work that the Walt Disney Company has done, Pixar’s animated features are still considered appointment cinema. As in: A lot of movie-goers make a point of heading out for their local multiplex whenever a new Pixar picture is released. Rather than waiting ’til that same film is released on VHS & DVD. Which is evidently what happened with Disney’s last two traditionally animated features, “Brother Bear” and “Home on the Range.”
And Disney Company officials are certainly hoping that “Cars” turns out to be appointment cinema too. Given that the studio is currently trying to shake off a six-month-long box office slump.
“How long it been since the Mouse House has actually had a hit?,” you ask. “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” was released to theaters back on December 9, 2005. And that elaborate fantasy epic was the very last Disney film to achieve blockbuster status. Everything else that the studio has released since then …
Film Title | Release Date | Film’s total domestic gross (to date) |
“Casanova” | January 6, 2006 | $11.3 million |
“Glory Road“ | January 13, 2006 | $42.6 million |
“Annapolis“ | January 27, 2006 | $17.1 million |
“Roving Mars” | January 27, 2006 | $3.4 million |
“Eight Below” | February 17, 2006 | $81.5 million |
“Tsoti” | February 24, 2006 | $2.8 million |
“GOAL! The Dream Begins” | March 3, 2006 | $3.4 million |
“The Shaggy Dog” | March 10, 2006 | $58.1 million |
“Stay Alive” | March 24, 2006 | $22.7 million |
“The Wild” | April 14, 2006 | $35.3 million |
“Kinky Boots” | April 14, 2006 | $1.3 million |
“Stick It” | April 28, 2006 | $24.7 million |
“Keeping Up with the Steins” | May 12, 2006 | $2.1 million |
… have under-performed. Mind you, “Eight Below,” “The Shaggy Dog” and “Glory Road” all did fair-to-middling business. But of the 13 films that Walt Disney Studios has released through its various production arms (I.E. Walt Disney Pictures, Touchstone Pictures, Hollywood Pictures & Miramax Films), not a one of them became a blockbuster. As in: Selling over $100 million worth of tickets during its initial domestic release.
So Disney officials are really counting on “Cars.” Not only to silence all of the company’s critics who say that the Mouse paid far too much when it spent $7.4 billion to acquire Pixar. But also to arrest the studio’s slide at the box office.
Mind you, one wonders how much “Cars” will actually be able to pull in this summer. Given that – just 19 days after this new Pixar film first rolls into theaters – “Superman Returns” flies into your local multiplex (A full two days ahead of when this $300 million Warner Bros. film was originally supposed to debut). And then – just nine days after that – here comes Disney’s other big movie for the summer, “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.”
I’d told that the folks at Pixar aren’t all that pleased that – just four weeks after it hits theater – “Cars” finds itself in direct competition with Captain Jack Sparrow. Which perhaps explains why – in the Summer of 2007 – this situation will be reversed. With Disney’s third “Pirates” picture (Tentatively subtitled “World’s End) bowing on May 25, 2007, while Pixar’s next animated feature, “Ratatouille” (A Brad Bird-directed opus which deals with the gastronomic adventures of Remy the Rat, who wishes to become one of France’s greatest chefs) will debut on June 29th.
Mind you … If both “Cars” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” under-perform … Well, Walt Disney Studios still has a few cards up its sleeve. I’ve heard that Mark Wahlberg’s “Invincible” (Which tells the story of that unlikely NFL star, Vince Papale) has sleeper potential. Also Tim Allen’s “The Santa Clause III” ….
Copyright Disney Enterprises LLC
… and Mel Gibson’s Mesoamerican epic, “Apocolypto,” both look like they could make the Mouse’s holiday season brighter.
But – for now – all eyes are on “Cars.” To see if Pixar’s newest animated feature not only meets its initial box office projections (I.E. $75 – $80 million), but also to see if this automotive motion picture has legs. As in: Will “Cars” actually go on to earn as much as Pixar’s earlier pictures did?
Just to refresh your memory, here’s a chart that lists how well Pixar Animation Studio’s first six films did:
Title | Domestic Gross | Overseas Gross | Combined Gross |
“Finding Nemo” | $339.7 million | $524.9 million | $864.5 million |
“The Incredibles” | $261.4 million | $369.9 million | $631.4 million |
“Monsters, Inc.” | $255.8 million | $269.4 million | $525.3 million |
“Toy Story 2” | $245.8 million | $239.1 million | $485.0 million |
“A Bug’s Life” | $162.7 million | $200.6 million | $363.3 million |
“Toy Story” | $191.7 million | $170.1 million | $361.9 million |
So what do you folks think? Will “Cars” actually be able earn more than $75 million during its initial weekend in domestic release? Or is it even fair of Wall Street movers & shakers and entertainment industry observers to set such a lofty goal for a film to achieve prior to its release to theaters?
Your thoughts?