Can positive word-of-mouth now help “John Carter” overcome its poisonous advance buzz?

Jim Hill

13 years ago

It's the story that entertainment reporters has been
flogging since last Fall. How terrible the advance tracking on "John Carter" reportedly was. Which is why it was rumored that Walt Disney Studios was getting
ready to take a $100 – $165 million write-off on this new Andrew Stanton film.

But then a curious thing happened. "John Carter"
finally opens this past Friday on 3,746 screens and only sells $9.8 million
worth of tickets. But then comes Saturday, during which "Carter" actually
saw a 26% uptick in business.

"So what's so significant about that? Well, let's take
a look at what happened to "TRON: Legacy" over its opening weekend
back in December of 2010. That Joseph Kosinski film sold $17.5 million worth of
tickets over its first day in domestic release, but then saw its box office
fall off by 14% as Friday gave way to Saturday.

You get what's going on here yet? Business fell off for
"TRON: Legacy" because — thanks to social media — people were able
to quickly get the word out that this long-awaited sequel was kind of a
disappointment. Whereas with "John
Carter" this past weekend, moviegoers actually used Facebook & Twitter to tell
friends & family that this epic sci-fi film was a lot better than they had
expected.

Don't get me wrong. "John Carter" is far from out
of the woods. With estimated production costs of $250 million and an additional
$50 – $75 million spent on promotion, this Walt Disney Pictures release will
have to earn over a half billion dollars worldwide before this
set-on-the-Red-Planet adventure then officially makes it into the black. More to the
point, there's no guarantee that this past Saturday's uptick in domestic ticket sales will be
more than a one time thing.

But given how well "Carter" has been doing
overseas (Opening day-and-date with the North American version of this Andrew
Stanton movie, "John Carter" has earned $70.6 million so far in
Europe, Asia and Latin America), Mouse House managers are now somewhat
hopeful that this Walt Disney Pictures may actually be able to overcome its
earlier poisonous advance buzz and eventually eek out a profit.

That said, after both "Mars Needs Moms" and
"John Carter" under-performed when they were released in early March,
don't expect Disney to schedule any more sci-fi-themed projects to be released
in this particular slot. From here on in, look for the Mouse to reserve this
time of year for big fantasy films more in the style of Tim Burton's
"Alice in Wonderland." With "Oz the Great and Powerful"
scheduled to be released to theaters on March 8, 2013, while
"Maleficent" (i.e. that "Wicked" -like reimagining of
Disney's "Sleeping Beauty" which will supposedly star Angelina Jolie
as the Mistress of All Evil while Elle Fanning is now allegedly in talks to
play Briar Rose / Princess Aurora) tentatively slated for this exact same slot in
March of 2014.

Mind you, there are those at Disney who say that the Studio
is never going to see another billion dollar earner released in this particular
window. That "Alice in Wonderland" did as well as it did back in
March of 2010 thanks — in large part — to the fact that this Tim Burton film
was the very first major studio release in 3D to follow "Avatar" into theaters.
And given that moviegoers had so enjoyed the cinematic experience of visiting
Pandora in three dimensions … Well, that's why audience then turned out in
droves three months later to journey down Disney' s CG rabbit hole and meet
Johnny Depp as the Mad Hatter.

And speaking of "Avatar" … If you've been visiting various Disney discussion
boards over the past week, you've probably already read the rumors that the
"James Cameron's World of Avatar" project is in trouble. Or — worse
yet — that this proposed DAK addition has imploded / been cancelled entirely.

Well, don't believe the rumors, folks. I reached out this
past Thursday night to (Sorry. I'm not allowed to give you this person's name),
a VP of Communications for Disney Parks and Resorts, and flat-out asked him/her
about these "World of Avatar" cancellation stories. What I was told
was that this rumor-that's-currently-making-the-rounds is untrue. "It's a
bad story, Jim," my source told me. "Don't believe it."

Of course, if that's really the case … Then the next
question is why would someone be putting a false story like this out there?
What is there to be gained by floating the rumor that Disney & James
Cameron might now be on the outs?

When I learn more about these Pandora-is-kaput rumors, I'll be
sure and share that info here. But in the meantime … What are your thoughts on "John
Carter" ? Did you get to see this Andrew Stanton film over its opening
weekend? If so, how do you think this cinematic version of Edgar Rice Burroughs'
classic tale will fare at the box office
long term? Do you think that this past weekend's positive word-of-mouth will actually
be enough to overcome the past 12 weeks of poisonous buzz?

Your thoughts?