This wasn’t supposed to happen. At least according to Hollywood insiders.
The conventional wisdom out west was that this past weekend belonged to “Zathura.” That this new Jon Favreau film would rule at the box office, while Disney’s “Chicken Little” would then have to settle for second place.
Well, in a somewhat stunning turn of events, it was Walt Disney Feature Animation’s latest project — rather than Sony Pictures’ sci-fi fantasy — that came out on top this past weekend. And rather handily at that. With “Chicken Little” selling $32 million worth of tickets, while “Zathura” struggled to sell $14 million.
I don’t need to tell you folks that this news put the executives back in Burbank over the moon. The very idea that WDFA could produce a film that was this strong at the box office.
Mind you, it’s not like the Mouse House hasn’t had a picture this year that was popular enough to stay at No. 1 for two weeks in a row. Disney’s actually been lucky enough to have two of these sorts of films already in 2005:
- Vin Diesel’s family comedy, “The Pacifier,” which sold $30.5 million worth of tickets over its opening weekend back in March, then went on to earn an additional $18.1 million over its second weekend in release.
- Jody Foster’s thriller, “Flightplan,” which grossed $24.6 million over its opening weekend back in September, then going on to earn an additional $14.8 million over its second weekend in release.
But — even as these two Touchstone Pictures release stayed strong at the box office — they still saw significant drop-offs in ticket sales over their second weekend. With sales dropping off by 41% for “The Pacifier” in its second weekend, while ticket sales for “Flightplan” fell off by 40%.
Whereas “Chicken Little” … This Walt Disney Feature Animation project showed surprising strength over its second weekend in release, with its ticket sales only falling off by 20%.
Now the percentage by which a film’s ticket sales fell off during its second weekend may not seem all that exciting to your average film fan. But — out in Hollywood — where virtually every facet of the film-making process can be converted into a spreadsheet, this is huge news. That any movie — never mind that it’s Disney newest animated feature — could have this sort of consistant performance at the box office over two weekends … is almost unheard of these days.
To explain: It’s been a particularly brutal year for Hollywood. With a number of major motion pictures opening at No. 1 at the box office, only to experience precipitous drop-offs in business during their second weekend in release. “How steep a drop?,” you ask. Take a look at the chart below:
Steepest drop-offs in business
for films that originally opened at No. 1
over their second weekend in release
November ’04 – November ’05
Doom ……………………………………………………………………..73%
Coach Carter ………………………………………………………….. 64%
War of the Worlds …………………………………………………….60%
Transporter 2 …………………………………………………………..63%
Fantastic Four ………………………………………………………….59%
The Ring Two ……………………………………………………………61%
Hide and Seek ………………………………………………………….59%
Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events ………..58%
The Dukes of Hazzard ………………………………………………. 58%
Ocean’s Twelve …………………………………………………………54%
Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy …………………………………54%
Madagascar ………………………………………………………………54%
Given that this sort of thing kept happening weekend after weekend after weekend, a new norm soon has emerged in Hollywood. That it has now become acceptable for a film’s box office to drop off by 40% during its second weekend in release. Anything above 40% has become cause for concern (Meaning that it might then be difficult for a motion picture to recover its promotion & production costs), while anything below 40% is now considered cause for celebration.
That’s why they’re breaking out the party hats in the Team Disney Burbank building today. Not just because “Chicken Little” came in at No. 1 at the box office for two weekends in a row. But — rather — because ticket sales for this new animated film fell off by only 20% from weekend No. 1 to weekend No. 2.
“And just how significant is that?,” you query. Well, let’s take a look at how the most recent animated releases have performed at the box office:
Drop-offs in business
First weekend to second weekend
New animated films released to theaters
November ’04 – November ’05
Madagascar ………………………………………..54% ($61 million dropping to $28 million)
Tim Burton’s The Corpse Bride ………….48% ($19.1 million dropping to $10 million)
Spongebob Squarepants ……………………..44% ($32 million dropping to $17.8 million)
Robots ……………………………………………………42% ($36 million dropping to $21 million)
The Incredibles ………………………………….29% ($70.4 million dropping to $50.2 million)
Wallace and Gromit: Curse Wererabbit …28% ($16 million dropping to $11.5 million)
Chicken Little ………………………………………20% ($40.1 million dropping to $32.0 million
Again, by this particular yardstick, “Chicken Little” is showing surprising strength at the box office. Suggesting that this Mark Dindal movie may have some real legs and could potentially have a significant run at the box office.
“Yeah, but how does ‘Chicken Little’ ‘s performance compare to other recent Disney animated films?,” you continue.” Or — for that matter — how does this animated film’s box tallies compare to those of other recent Walt Disney Picture / Touchstone Films / Miramax Pictures releases?”
Well, let’s take a look, shall we?
Drop-offs in business
First weekend to second weekend
Disney animated films released to theaters
November ’95 – November ’05
Hercules ………………………………..43% ($21.4 million dropping to $12.1 million)
Home on the Range …………………42% ($13.8 million dropping to $8.1 million)
Lilo and Stitch …………………… 39% ($35.2 million dropping down $21.5 million)
Atlantis: The Lost Empire …………38% ($20.3 million dropping to $12.5 million)
Hunchback of Notre Dame ………..32% ($21 million dropping to $14.3 million)
Tarzan ……………………………………30% ($34.3 million dropping to $24 million)
Mulan ……………………………………..25% ($22.7 million dropping to $17 million)
Chicken Little …………………………. 20% ($40.1 million dropping to $32 million)
Dinosaur …………………………………18% ($38.8 million dropping to $32 million)
Brother Bear ……………………………..5% ($19.4 million dropping to $18.5 million)
Drop-offs in business
First weekend to second weekend
Disney produced projects
November ’04 – November ’05
Hitchhiker’s Guide …………..54% ($21.1 million dropping to $9.7 million)
Sin City ………………………….. 51% ($29.1 million dropping to $14.1 million)
Shark Boy & Lava Girl …… 47% ($12.5 million dropping to $6.6 million)
Ice Princess ………………………… 45% ($6.8 million dropping to $3.7 million)
The Brothers Grimm …………..40% ($15.0 million dropping to $9.0 million)
Flightplan ………………………..40% ($24.6 million dropping to $14.8 million)
The Pacifier ………………………41% ($30.5 million dropping to $18.1 million)
Valiant ………………………………….41% ($5.9 million dropping to $3.5 million)
Sky High ………………………………38% ($14.6 million dropping to $9.0 million)
Chicken Little …………………….20% ($40.1 million dropping to $32.0 million)
Herbie: Fully Loaded ……….. 15% ($12.7 million dropping to $10.7 million)
Pooh’s Heffalump Movie ……….13% ($5.8 million dropping to $5.3 million)
National Treasure ………………. 8% ($35.1 million dropping to $32.1 million)
Pooh’s Heffalump Movie…………13% ($5.8 million dropping to $5.3 million)
So — as you can see — we’re not just talking about one of the better performing animated films that Walt Disney Studios has produced in the past 10 years. We’re also talking about one of the best performing motion pictures that the Walt Disney Company has put into theaters in the past 12 months.
So is there any wonder as to why Disney execs now have renewed confidence about how “Chicken Little” will do when it faces down “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” this coming weekend? I mean, sure, the movie version of J.K. Rowling’s fourth book is almost certainly going to out-gross this Randy Fullmer film. But now the question is: Just how well will “Chicken Little” do this coming weekend? Will it prove to be a strong No. 2 at the box office?
By the way, for those of you who are keeping track of this: “Chicken Little” is now projected to officially become a blockbuster (I.E. Selling more than $100 million worth of tickets during its initial domestic release) sometime on Saturday, November 19th. Just 15 days after this Mark Dindal film first rolled into theaters.
Which (admittedly) isn’t exactly a record-breaking pace. However, given that it’s been over three years since WDFA last officially gave birth to a blockbuster (“Lilo & Stitch” earned over $145 million during its domestic release back in June of 2002. “Brother Bear” topped out at $85 million back in the Fall of 2003, while “Home on the Range” had to struggle to pull in $50 million back in the Spring of 2004), the execs, animators & technicians at Disney Feature Animation are now really looking forward to their latest production officially crossing this particular threshhold. Which (they hope) will be seen as a signal that WDFA is finally on its way back.
So what are your thoughts? How well do you think “Chicken Little” will do during its third weekend in release? Will it prove to be a popular alternative choice for all those folks who can’t get into sold-out screenings of “Goblet of Fire?”