Disney insiders advise patience when it comes to determining “TRON: Legacy” ‘s box office success

Jim Hill

14 years ago

Wyatt M. dropped me a line yesterday to ask:

Because of Tron: Legacy being a "disappointment," does this mean that everything Disney had planned for it isn't actually going to happen? Personally, this was my favorite film of the year, and I'd hate to see the sequel, television show, and online world never happen. I see some real potential here, and there's nothing worse than wasted potential. Thanks!

Given that "TRON: Legacy" has only been out in theaters for three days now, it's a trifle early to be calling this Joseph Kosinski film a disappointment, don't you think?

Take a look around the Web, Wyatt. The language that's being used to describe the estimated $43.6 million that "TRON: Legacy" pulled in over its first weekend in domestic release isn't disappointing. It's nice, respectable, solid but not spectacular.

Now if you want to talk about disappointing box office, check out Sony's "How Do You Know." This James L. Brooks movie cost that studio a reported $120 million to make and only pulled in an estimated $7.6 million over its opening weekend. Now that's a real disappointment.

Now as for "TRON: Legacy" … I guess one could argue that this relaunch of the "TRON" franchise didn't entirely meet industry expectations. And given that this high profile tentpole reportedly cost $270 – $320 million to make & then market, conventional wisdom would suggest that the Mouse is going to be extremely challenged when it comes to recovering its initial investment in this production.

But you have to understand that Disney is different, Wyatt. That this corporation can leverage characters & franchises in ways that other entertainment companies only dream about. Case in point: ElecTRONica, which has been dazzling thousands of weekend visitors to Disney California Adventure theme park since early October. These folks have been snatching up "TRON: Legacy" merchandise and buying overpriced "TRON" -themed drinks for weeks now. Which means that Mickey actually found a way to make money off of this movie before it was even released to theaters.

Or – better yet – how about the "TRON: Legacy" soundtrack ? This Walt Disney Records release sold over 70,000 units during its first week in release, making it the first score soundtrack in five years to debut in the Top 10. And – again – most of the money that's made off of sales of this Daft Punk recording then flows directly back into the Mouse's pocket.

So would Disney executives have been happier if "TRON: Legacy" had performed more like Tim Burton's "Alice in Wonderland" (which earned $116.1 million over its first weekend in domestic release) or "Toy Story 3" (which made $110.3 million) over its opening weekend? Absolutely. But given that the audience segment that was most eager to see this "TRON" sequel was males over the age of 18, rather than the entire family (Which is what helped power "Alice" and "TS3" to those impressively high opening weekend numbers), Disney's promotional staff knew that it was facing a real challenge with the launch of this particular production. Which is why you saw them mounting the sort of marketing campaign that they did.

Now what's kind of interesting – when you talk with Disney insiders about "TRON: Legacy" 's box office performance – is how quickly these people then change the subject to "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader." In particular, how it's taken the third "Narnia" movie 10 days to make $42.7 million. Which is basically the same amount that "TRON: Legacy" earned over its first three days in domestic release.

To hear these company insiders talk, Disney really dodged a bullet in December of 2008 by opting out of its deal with Walden Media to co-produce any further "Narnia" films. And given how "Dawn Treader" has performed domestically to date, this movie will really have do spectacularly overseas if Fox is to be expected to then participate in production of "The Silver Chair."

And speaking of overseas … The Disney insiders that I spoke with this past weekend urged me not to rush to judgment when it came to "TRON: Legacy." People both inside & outside of the industry will get a far better sense of how this Joseph Kosinski film will perform long-term at the box office by looking at "TRON: Legacy" 's second weekend in domestic release. More to the point, that studio officials anticipate that this "TRON" sequel will do quite well overseas.

So long story short, Wyatt: No one's hitting the "TRON" panic button. Not yet, anyway. Near as I can tell, the "TRON: Uprising" animated series is still on track to debut on the Fall of 2011 with a series of teaser mini-episodes while the full-blown show will premiere sometime in the Spring on 2012.

And as for that "TRON: Legacy" sequel … Well, the greenlighting of that film always hinged on how well the first "TRON" sequel performed at the box office. Though my understanding was – given that the second "TRON" sequel was always supposed to cost far less than "TRON: Legacy" (because, of course, many of the costumes, props and sets – as well as CG assets – that had been created for the first "TRON" sequel could then, in theory, be repurposed for a "TRON: Legacy" follow-up) … Well, the way I've heard it described is that "TRON 3" was supposed to be the "Wrath of Khan" to "TRON: Legacy" 's "Star Trek – The Motion Picture." In that — now that modern moviegoers have been reintroduced to the characters & the world of TRON — Disney could then step around the ponderous backstory & mythology inherent with the relaunch of a 1980s sci-fi franchise and now create an action-packed sequel that deliberately broadened the appeal of these pictures.

So who knows? If "TRON: Legacy" does well enough worldwide, we may yet get "The Wrath of TRON." Or whatever it is that Walt Disney Studios was going to call "TRON 3." But a lot of this genuinely depends on how many tickets get sold to this Joseph Kosinski film.

So if you really do want to see that "TRON: Legacy" sequel and/or see some "TRON" -themed attractions start popping up in the Parks, Wyatt, my advice is to go back and see this Walt Disney Pictures release a few more times. Better yet, bring a few friends along with you.

And then – on your way home – swing by your local Disney Store and/or Toys R Us and buys some of those "TRON: Legacy" toys. Because anything that indicates to Mouse House management that there is actually a largish audience out there that is interested in all manner of "TRON" -related product will then help keep this franchise alive.

But what do you folks think? Would you be interested in seeing Disney produce a "TRON: Legacy" sequel (especially if the next film had a far stronger story)? Or would you be perfectly happy if the Walt Disney Company waited another 28 years before it then made another attempt to revive / relaunch its "TRON" franchise?

Your thoughts?

If you're still looking for that perfect gift for Grandma, Aunt Pat or Uncle Earle please
click on the banner below. If you do that … well, JimHillMedia.com then gets a teeny,
tiny chunk of whatever you spend at Amazon.com

Thanks and Happy Holidays!