Monday Mouse Watch : “Carol” makes cash registers ring, while “Frog” ‘s financial future makes Disney animators jumpy

Jim Hill

15 years ago

You’re going to read a lot of stories this morning about how
Disney’s “A Christmas Carol” had a bad opening weekend. How – because this new Robert
Zemeckis movie didn’t make $35 – $40 million during its first three days in
domestic release – this rather expensive ImageMovers Digital production is now
considered something of a disappointment.

Which – to be blunt – is bull.

You have to understand that one of the main reasons that
Mickey said “Yes” when Robert initially proposed a performance capture version
of Charles Dickens’ holiday classic is … Well, the Mouse’s accountants had seen
how much “The Polar Express” had earned for Warner Bros. since that CG film was
first released back in November of 2004. That – between “Polar Express” ‘s
theatrical release & DVD sales, its annual re-release to IMAX theaters as
well as its recent repurposing as a theme park attraction – this Steve Starkey
production is now the Christmas gift that keeps on giving.

So when it comes to Disney’s “A Christmas Carol,” the
Company went into this project deliberately taking the long view. While others
may focus on how this Zemeckis movie did over its opening weekend, those in the
Michael Eisner building know that – by the time New Year’s Eve rolls around –
this film will have racked up a rather impressive worldwide gross. More to the
point, the Studio now has another perennial (Sort of like that Disney Digital
3D version of Tim Burton’s “The Nightmare Before Christmas.” Which has become something of a holiday tradition at many theaters around the country. Popping up in limited release for those two weeks prior to Halloween) that it will soon be able to leverage across various
platforms on a seasonal basis.

Trust me on this one, folks. Nobody at the Studio is losing
sleep over the amount of money that “Disney’s A Christmas Carol” didn’t make
over its opening weekend. Would they have preferred that this performance
capture picture pulled in an additional $9 – $10 million during its first three
days in domestic release? Absolutely. But when you take the long view (i.e.
what this ImageMovers Digital production will earn for the Company over the
next 3 to 5 years) … It’s still going to wind up being an amount that would have made Ebenezer
Scrooge (at his absolute greediest) very happy.

Now contrast that with the current mood over at Walt Disney
Animation Studios. To be specific, among those folks who absolutely busted
their butts this year to bring “The Princess & the Frog” in on time and under
budget.

These WDAS employees are absolutely obsessed with numbers
these days (EX: Several senior staffers reached out to me last week to make
sure that I understood that the budget figure for this new Ron Clements / John
Musker movie that had been quoted in last week’s Wall Street Journal article
was wrong. That “The Princess and the Frog” hadn’t actually cost $150 million
to produce. But – rather – only $105 million). Out of concern that – should Disney’s
first hand-drawn animated feature in more than five years fail to meet initial box
office projections, be perceived as an under-performer – the Studio might then see this as
justification for not going forward with its planned revival of this particular
form of animation.

Okay. I know. Given Walt Disney Studios’ heritage (As well
as John Lasseter’s recent statement that “ … “I’ve always felt that the
studio that should still be doing hand-drawn animation is the studio that started
it all”), it seems highly unlikely that WDAS would ever completely abandon
hand-drawn animation. But that said, studio insiders are still pointing to the
proposed budget for WDAS’s 2011 release, “Winnie the Pooh.” Given that this new
“Pooh” project reportedly has a price tag of only $35 million (i.e. a third of
what “The Princess & the Frog” was allegedly made for) … Well, a tighter
budget means a smaller payroll. Which means that far fewer animators will be
hired to work for this particular production. Which is not great news at a time
when many folks who specialize in hand-drawn animation are still struggling to
find steady employment.

To be fair here, John Lasseter & Ed Catmull do seem
sincere in their efforts to try & revive hand-drawn animation at Walt
Disney Animation Studios. Which is why they’ve been leaning on with the folks
in Marketing to make those limited engagements of “The Princess & the Frog”
(which start in NY & LA on November 25^th) seem like real events.
Which (John & Ed are hoping) will then make would-be movie-goers that much more eager to see a new hand-drawn animated feature from Disney.

And at least when it comes to the Los Angeles version of “The Princess & the Frog” ‘s advance special engagement, the Mouse’s Marketing department seems to have succeeded. I mean,
how many times do members of the general public get to go on the Burbank lot,
see a new hand-drawn animated feature in a state-of-the-art theater and then
spend the next few hours exploring a tricked-out soundstage? Where they can
then learn to draw from a real animator and see original props & costumes
from the Disney Archives ?

You’d think – given what’s going on with the economy these
days (i.e. with last week’s report stating that unemployment in the U.S. has
reached a 26 year high) – that the Studio would be having trouble moving those
$50 Royal tickets to this “Ultimate Disney Experience.” Well, think again. As
of right now, unless you’re looking for single seats, your only chance to get
on the Disney lot to see “The Princess & the Frog” is to buy tickets to a
9:30 p.m. show-time. Because most of the other daily screenings are basically
sold out already.

Mind you, this isn’t quite the case when it comes to the
East Coast version of “The Princess & the Frog” ‘s limited engagement.
Tickets are still readily available for NYC’s “Ultimate Disney Experience.” During
which audience members will first see a screening of this new hand-drawn
animated film at the Ziegfeld Theatre on West 54th Street. Then they’ll
schlep on over to the Roseland Ballroom on 52nd, where they can meet all of the Disney Princesses as well as climb, jump and swing their way through a Bayou Adventure play area.

So – just to recap here — please ignore any gloom-and-doom
articles that you may read this morning about “Disney’s Christmas Carol.” In
the long run, that Robert Zemeckis film is going to do just fine by The Walt
Disney Company.

On the other hand, if you’d like to make some middle-aged
animators (many of who now have kids in college as well as mortgages that they
still need to pay off) sleep a lot easier, please go buy a ticket to “The Princess &
the Frog.”

Better yet, buy two.

Your thoughts?

I know, I know. We’re stilljust less than three weeks out from Thanksgiving and people are already yammering about Christmas.

But that said … If you’d like to show your appreciation for all
the great stories that you’ve read at JimHillMedia over the past few
years, then why not start out your next Amazon shopping spree by
clicking on the banner above? That way, JHM gets a teeny tiny chunk of
whatever you spend.

Happy Holidays!