Monday Mouse Watch: Disney’s delighted with the amount of treasure that “Dead Man’s Chest” has been hauling in, while “Cars” actual box office earnings continue to decline

Well, I’ll say this much for all you “Cars” fans out there: You’re consistent.

To explain: For the past four weeks, I’ve been getting e-mails from JHM readers who are also big-time Pixar promoters. And these notes … Well, let me share a fairly typical one. Which showed up in my in-box this past Saturday. It reads:

Hey, *sshole

Despite all of your predictions that this John Lasseter film would fail, “Cars” is still chugging along quite nicely at the box office. In fact, this new Pixar Animation Studios release just blew through the $200 million barrier for ticket sales during its initial domestic release. So when are you finally going to admit that you were dead wrong about this movie?

*Sigh*

First of all, I never said that I thought that “Cars” was going to be a failure. What I did do is write several stories last month which talked about how some folks on Wall Street as well as various studio insiders were initially disappointed with how this John Lasseter film had been performing during its few weeks of domestic release.

Of course, that initial feeling of disappointment eventually gave way to muted optimism when “Superman Returns” turned out to be such a surprisingly weak performer. This meant that “Cars” actually caught a break, allowing this new animated feature to enjoy an extra week or so of fairly strong ticket sales. Which then boosted the film’s box office.

Which is why it now appears that Pixar’s newest picture will eventually come close to earning what “Monsters, Inc.” made during its initial domestic release back in November of 2001. Which was $255 million.

Copyright 2006 Disney/Pixar

But (At the risk of once again riling up all of you Pixar fans out there) this isn’t actually what the Walt Disney Company wanted when they shifted “Cars” release date from November of 2005 to June of 2006. You see, when studio officials originally did this back in December of 2004, what they were honestly hoping for was that John Lasseter’s latest animated feature would then become a really-for-real summer blockbuster.

You know? Like “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” ?

What’s that you say? The Walt Disney Company must be thrilled with both of these movies, given that “Cars” has earned an estimated $219.6 million to date, while “Dead Man’s Chest” has pulled in a reported $258.2 million so far … So — given that a mere $38.6 million currently separates the box office totals of these two pictures — Mouse House executives must now logically view these films as being equally successful, right?

Wrong. Anyone familiar with the way Hollywood really does business will tell you that Gore Verbinski‘s latest film has already put hundreds of millions of dollars in Mickey’s wallet. Whereas the slow-but-steady approach that John Lasseter’s latest film has taken toward box office dominance … Well, that hasn’t actually translated to the windfall that Disney execs had been hoping for.

Copyright 2006 Disney Enterprises

To explain: When a theater chain signs a contract with a movie studio (Where it agrees to begin showing a certain film starting on a certain date on a certain number of screens in a certain number of theaters), there’s always language in that contract that specifies what percentage of the ticket sales the theater gets to keep and what percentage they then have to send back to Hollywood. Typically, during the first week that a new movie is in release, the studio gets to keep 90% of the money that a theater raises through the sale of tickets for a particular picture. Which means that this theater chain only gets to hang onto 10% of the money.

However, starting with this film’s second week in release, the split changes. With the movie studio that actually produced this film now only receiving 80% of the money raised through ticket sales, while the theater chain then gets to hang onto 20%.

In Week 3, the split changes yet again. With the studio now receiving only 70% while the theater chain grabs 30%. In Week 4, the split continues its downward track. With only 60% of ticket sales fee going back to the studio, while the theater chain getting to hang onto 40%. And so on …

So if you take this formula into account whenever you’re reviewing what “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Cars” have earned to date … Suddenly these numbers look very different. Take — for example — the $219.6 million that “Cars” has hauled in so far …

… Because it took this John Lasseter film 38 days to actually pull in that $219.6 million, only $163.88 million will eventually wind up in Mickey’s pocket. Whereas the $258.2 million worth of tickets that “Dead Man’s Chest” has sold over the past 10 days …

… $225 million now goes straight into Disney’s wallet. All because this Gore Verbinski film is currently having such a great run at the box office.

Of course, it is worth noting here that — thanks to how spectacularly well all of the “Cars” toys are selling — the folks at Disney Consumer Products are already declaring this Pixar Animation Studios release to be a huge success. Conversely, given how poorly the “Dead Man’s Chest” action figures have been selling, there’s reportedly already been some semi-serious talk at DCP about scaling back the toy lines that are tied to the third “Pirates” film, “At World’s End.”

Anyway … Getting back to the start of today’s column: From now on, when Pixar fans write to me and say “When are you finally going to acknowledge that ‘Cars’ really has done quite well this summer?,” I’m just going to point to this piece and say “Okay. I admit it. This John Lasseter film has done quite well. Just not as well as Wall Street & certain Disney executives had originally hoped it would.”

Again (not to belabor my point here, but), what Mouse House execs were actually hoping for when they changed “Cars” release date from November of 2005 to June of 2006 was a summer blockbuster. Not a solid performer that would eventually earn $200 million after it had been in theaters for 30 days. But — rather — a genuine box office phenomenon like “Dead Man’s Chest.” A motion picture that audiences would eagerly seek out, one that would blow by the $200 million mark after being in release for only 8 days.

And anyone who tells you different … Well, they’re just playing the revisionist history game. Insisting that it’s now okay that “Cars” will eventually probably earn as much as “Monsters, Inc.” did in its initial domestic release. When it’s clear that Disney studio executives really had a much higher gross in mind (Think “Finding Nemo” and “The Incredibles” -sized numbers) when they originally shifted the release date of this new John Lasseter film from November of 2005 to June of 2006.

Your thoughts?