Monday Mouse Watch : Numbers did in Disney’s version of “Dawn Treader”

Jim Hill

16 years ago

So why exactly did The Walt Disney Company opt out of co-producing a third installment of “The Chronicles of Narnia” film series last week? To be honest, this was just a case of Hollywood’s newest financial realities trumping fantasy.

Mind you, there have been signs for months now that the Mouse was getting cold feet when it came to this co-production. Dick Cook failing to mention the third “Narnia” movie at all during Disney Studios’ big promo event at the Kodak Theater earlier this year was considered by many in the industry to be a huge red flag. As was Disney’s sudden backing away from its 2006 promise to produce film versions of all seven of these C.S. Lewis fantasy novels. Opting instead to start off with a trilogy (i.e. “The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,” “Prince Caspian” and “The Voyage of the Dawn Treader”) and then taking a wait-and-see approach to producing film versions of the other four books in the series.

But in the end, it was the numbers that did the “Narnia” film franchise in. At least as far as The Walt Disney Company is concerned. The fact that “Prince Caspian” earned less than half of what “The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” did during its initial domestic release back in 2005. No to mention that the DVD version of this Andrew Adamson film didn’t exactly fly off store shelves this holiday season (Back in 2006, “The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” sold 4 million units during its first day in release. It took the DVD version of “Prince Caspian” more than 10 days to sell a similar number of units).

Given “Prince Caspian” ‘s worldwide box office as well as the number of DVDs of this film that had been sold since December 2nd, it was obvious that there weren’t as many consumers out there eager to see additional “Narnia” movies as Disney had hoped. And given the enormous costs involved with producing big screen versions of these C.S. Lewis books (“The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” reportedly cost $150 million to produce, “Prince Caspian” $175 million), it just didn’t make financial sense for Disney to continue its association with this film franchise. Especially in the face of what the Studio felt were sure-to-be further diminished returns once “Dawn Treader” was released to theaters in 2010.

So after doing the math, Mouse House officials decided to pull the plug on this co-production. Opting instead to fund films that it felt had a far better chance of making a strong financial return. Projects like “Pirates of the Caribbean 4” and “Tr2n.”

Still — understanding that an announcement like this would cause considerable PR problems for its “Narnia” co-production partner, Walden Media (Not to mention angering billionaire Phil Anschutz. Who — in addition to be the co-founder of Walden Media — is also the owner of the Regal Entertainment Group, the largest movie theater chain in the world) — Disney did what it could to mitigate the damage. Deliberately holding back this information until just before the holidays. With the hope that — by the time everyone gets back into town after the Christmas break — that Disney-dumps-“Dawn-Treader” story would be old news and long since forgotten.

For its part, Walden Media is trying to put the best possible face on this whole unfortunate situation. Late last week, Claudia Eller of the Los Angeles Times spoke with David Weil, chief executive of Walden’s parent company, Anschutz Film Group. And he was quoted as saying:

“We’re disappointed that Disney has decided not to go forward (with this project). But we regard ‘Dawn Treader’ as an extremely valuable property and remain committed to the (‘Narnia’ film) franchise.”

“So who will pick up where Disney left off?,” you ask. Well, Walden Media currently has a deal with 20th Century Fox to market & distribute that company’s films under the Fox Walden banner. So it’s assumed that Fox may soon step in and become Walden’s new production partner on “Dawn Treader.”

But given that Disney reportedly opted out of producing any more “Narnia” movies because it felt that there just wasn’t enough profit potential left in this film franchise to warrant laying out any additional cash … In these tough financial times, what studio exec is going to risk his or her neck and/or reputation trying to prove that the Mouse was wrong about the “Narnia” franchise?

Speaking of tough financial times … The “Narnia” movies weren’t the only projects to have recently been put under Mickey’s financial microscope. From what I hear, Mouse House managers have ordered an across-the-board 20% cut in production costs. So if you expect to get a greenlight from Disney these days, you’d best make sure that your new project comes across as being lean & mean.

Beyond that … Mickey hopes that opting out of co-producing “Dawn Treader” doesn’t wind up hurting the Studio on the exhibition end of things. Given that Phil Anschutz controls 6000 screens through his Regal Entertainment Group, the worry in Burbank right now is that the co-founder of Walden Media (Who is already having a tough year, what with the failure of “City of Ember.” Not to mention Walden Media having to scale back its once ambitious plans to produce 3-to-5 new family-friendly films each year to just a single release for 2009, “Bandslam”) may use his clout as the world’s biggest exhibitor in an effort to punish the Mouse.

Of course, the suits in the Michael Eisner Building are hoping that this doesn’t actually happen. After all, were Anschutz to order that Regal Entertainment Group suddenly stop showing Disney films, this billionaire would just wind up punishing himself. Denying his theaters the revenue that is sure to be generated from screening Pixar’s next film.

So, sure. There are some hurt feelings right now. But let’s remember that — in the phrase “Show Business” — the most important word is business. And — in the end — it was the business side of the equation that eventually drove Disney to opt out of co-producing “Dawn Treader.” After carefully considering “Prince Caspian” ‘s numbers, it just didn’t make good business sense for the Studio to continue with the “Narnia” film franchise. Which is why Mickey did what he did last week.

This is also why — as angry as Phil Anschutz may be with Mouse House execs right now — this billionaire will continue to do business (via his Regal Entertainment Group) with the boys in Burbank. Because there’s profit to be had here.

Which — I know — is kind of bleak news for all of you C.S. Lewis fans out there. But as I said at the start of today’s article, particularly in today’s Hollywood, financial reality trumps fantasy.

Your thoughts?