Toon Tuesday : Sure, “Ratatouille” rebounded over the extended Fourth of July holiday. But what happens tomorrow … When Harry meets Remy?

Okay. I admit it. Maybe — just maybe — the folks at Walt Disney Studios actually do know what they are doing.

Case in point: “Ratatouille.” When this Brad Bird film only sold $47 million worth of tickets over its opening weekend (Which was at least 20% less than the $60 million that industry experts had originally expected this Pixar production to earn over its first three days in theaters) … It was all too easy for someone like myself — who trusts in numbers — to dismiss this new animated feature as a critic’s darling that was really struggling to connect with Pixar’s usual audience.

Ah, but Chuck Viane — head of Distribution at Walt Disney Studios — warned me not to jump to conclusions when it came to “Ratatouille.” He said that the Mouse had put an awful lot of thought into the proper positioning of its Rat movie.

“We actually picked our release date about a year ago,” Viane explained. “We decided that opening ‘Ratatouille’ a week after “Evan Almighty’ and a week before ‘Transformers‘ would give this picture its very best shot at box office success. And — as it turns out — we were right.”

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Indeed they were. During the first 10 days that this new Pixar film was in domestic release, “Ratatouille” earned $109.5 million. Which puts this Brad Bird film just a lap or two behind what “Cars” pulled in last year during its first 10 days in U.S. theaters.

Here. Maybe a chart will help illustrate the point that I’m trying to put across here.

So while “Ratatouille” ‘s opening weekend performance was admittedly less than stellar, this critically acclaimed animated feature quickly made up ground by pulling in some very impressive grosses over last week’s extended Fourth of July holiday.

Mind you, Viane attributes “Ratatouille” ‘s strong performance last week not just to the rave reviews and/or the great word-of-mouth. But — rather — because last week’s other big earners (i.e. 20th Century Fox‘s “Live Free or Die Hard” and Paramount / DreamWorks’ “Transformers“) weren’t really in direct competion with this new Brad Bird film.

“We each had our own audiences. Bruce Willis fans turned out for ‘Die Hard,’ while teens went for ‘Transformers.’ Which meant that we pretty much had the family audience all to ourselves,” Chuck continued. “Then when you factor in that every day is like a Saturday during the summer … Well, I’m not honestly surprised that ‘Ratatouille’ did as well as it did.”

Of course, the big test comes tomorrow with the release of Warners‘ “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.” Which — you’d think — would have Viane worried. But again that’s where you’d be wrong.

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“Look, I know that Harry Potter fans are very devoted. And I’m certain that those people are going to turn out in huge numbers to see ‘Phoenix’ this week” Viane said. “But that movie isn’t going to have all that much impact on how our movie does. We’re talking about two very different fan bases here. There’s very little overlap between those two audiences. Which is why I think that ‘Ratatouille’ will continue to do well as we roll into Weekend No. 3.”

Me? Again, I’m not entirely sure that I share Chuck’s optimism. It would seem to me that “Ratatouille” and “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix” would have to share an audience. At least a portion of the same audience. Which is why I’ll really be interested in seeing by what percentage business for this new Pixar film falls off as it enters its third week in theaters.

I mean, let’s be honest here, folks. If you look cold-bloodedly at what “Ratatouille” has earned over its first 10 days in domestic release, this Brad Bird film still lags well behind Pixar’s top earners like “Finding Nemo” and “The Incredibles.”

To be fair, when I mentioned this to Mr. Viane, the Head of Distribution at Walt Disney Studios said that he didn’t feel that such comparisons were fair at all.

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“You can’t really compare how a film that opens over the holidays does to the performance of a picture that opens in summer. Those are two entirely different box office seasons, each with their own unique challenges,” Chuck stated. “Plus it’s not fair to use ‘Nemo’ as the performance yardstick for all the Pixar films that followed it. That film was unique. As were all the Pixar movies that followed it.”

Me? I’m a numbers guy. Which is why it’s hard for me not to stack “The Incredibles” box office performance next to how “Cars” did last year, and then compare how “Ratatouille” has done to date to Pixar’s most recent releases. And what I (along with many investment analysts) see there is a trend. The slow-but-steady erosion of how much a new Pixar release typically earns during its initial domestic release.

To hear Mr. Viane talk, there’s no such thing as a typical Pixar picture. And as for “Ratatouille” ‘s domestic earnings … Again to quote from Chuck:

“If by the end of this summer ‘Ratatouille’ hasn’t earned at least as much as ‘Cars,’ I’m going to be very surprised.”

What about you folks? Were you surprised by how well “Ratatouille” did over the extended Fourth of July holiday? More to the point, what do you think this Brad Bird film will have earned by the time it finishes its domestic run?

Your thoughts / predictions?