Welcome to the house of mirrors. Disneyana’s equivalent of the grassy knoll. The place where all the conspiracy theories surrounding this whole Roy Disney / Stanley Gold / Michael Eisner / Steve Jobs / Pixar and Comcast story come together to form … well, some pretty fascinating yarns.
Like what? Well, let’s start with the theory that — now that Comcast has launched a hostile takeover bid for the Walt Disney Company — that Roy and Stanley are really out in the cold here. That — since Brian Roberts and Steve Burke don’t really need Shamrock’s help to close this deal — that Disney and Gold are just sh*t out of luck now.
Which I actually bought into for a while yesterday morning. I even felt bad for Roy and Stanley for a short time. Thinking what a shame it was that all their hard work was going to result in someone else scooping up the Walt Disney Company.
But then someone reminded me of Disney’s resignation letter of November 30th. Particularly the part where Roy listed Michael Eisner’s shortcomings. And Item #6 on that list was:
Your failure to establish and build constructive relationships with creative partners, especially Pixar, Miramax, and the cable companies distributing our products.
“… and the cable companies distributing our products”?! You’ve got to be kidding me.
I mean, Roy specifically mentions “cable companies” in his resignation letter. And then — 10 weeks later — Comcast suddenly makes a move on the Mouse House … and we’re all supposed to think that this is just a co-incidence?
And let’s talk about the timing of that move. Was it really such a co-incidence that Burke and Roberts chose to hold their Comcast-is-out-to-acquire-the-Walt-Disney-Company press conference this past Wednesday morning? Just hours before Michael Eisner was scheduled to appear in Orlando to discuss his company’s quarterly earnings with investment analysts.
Now, I don’t want to sound like a suspicious sort. But — if you really wanted to hurt Disney’s CEO, if you really wanted to cut Eisner’s legs out from under him in front of the investment community — what time would have been BETTER to stage that Comcast press conference? Can you think of one? Because I can’t.
Yeah, I’m starting to get a little concerned about the timing of things here. How Steve Jobs’ decision to abruptly break off Pixar’s contract extension talks with the Walt Disney Company came on January 29th . Which co-incidentally generated a lot of positive press for Roy and Stanley’s effort to oust Michael. This seemingly isolated event was then followed — several days later — by Pixar’s quarterly earnings conference call, where Jobs repeatedly verbally beat Eisner up. Which — of course — also furthered Disney and Gold’s efforts as well as continuing to weaken Disney’s CEO.
So now we have Michael Eisner, bloodied but still unbowed, heading into Disney’s quarterly earnings conference … Only to supposedly be blind-sided by Comcast’s surprise takeover bid.
Of course, there are those that say that this wasn’t a surprise, That Eisner knew that this Comcast deal was in the works. As I mentioned in Wednesday’s “The One That Got Away”, there are a lot of people out there who genuinely believe that it was Michael who first initiated talks with the Philadelphia-based corporation. But that Disney’s CEO was only looking to set up an alliance with Comcast. Something that he could talk up at Disney’s upcoming shareholders meeting. NOT an acquisition.
So what happened? Well, the story that I keep hearing is that — on the heels of the Pixar contract extension talks going “Ker-FLOOM!” — the folks at Comcast suddenly realized that there was blood in the water. That Eisner was now stuck with a fairly weak hand. And that — rather than just form some sort of half-assed alliance with the Mouse — Comcast could actually take Mickey’s entire house if they opted to move more aggressively.
So — in this scenario — Michael Eisner actually played an active hand in his own downfall. He initiated conversations with Comcast … only to have Steve Burke and Brian Roberts turn the tables on him.
Ah, it’s really difficult to keep track of all this conspiracy theories. They tend to bleed into one another, wander all over the map. Like — take, for instance — the rumor that’s now circulating about the reason that Steve Jobs REALLY broke off contract extension talks with the Walt Disney Company.
According to this version of the story, Steve supposedly somehow got wind that someone was about to begin a hostile takeover attempt on the Mouse House. Quickly realizing that — if he opted to renew his studio’s deal with Disney — Pixar would invariably get caught up in all that craziness. Which is why Steve allegedly decided that a hasty retreat was the best defense. Which is why (the way I hear it, anyway) Pixar Animation Studio suddenly walked away from the table … not because Jobs really wanted to hurt Eisner. But — rather — to avoid having to deal with the hassle associated with a hostile takeover attempt.
Of course, the really interesting part of this theory is — once Disney fends off Comcast and/or gets swallowed by the cable giant — Steve Jobs will then reportedly return to the bargaining table. And — since he will be the only one rested and refreshed, while the other participants will be completely exhausted from having to deal with that hostile takeover attempt — Steve will be able to get an even better deal out of the Walt Disney Company.
Not a bad idea, don’t you agree? Of course, there are those out there that suggest that the only reason that Steve Jobs’ people are supposedly putting this story out there now is because Steve’s said to be uncomfortable with the idea that others think that he’s been colluding with Roy and Stanley.
Yeah, a lot of people (myself included) are starting to get concerned with stuff like that. How we find it troubling that the message that’s coming out of the Shamrock Company sounds suspiciously similar to the stuff coming out of the Pixar camp. Which — perhaps not-so-co-incidentally — sounds an awful lot like what the guys at Comcast are saying. Like everyone’s reading off of the same sheet of music.
So what do I think? Have these three teams actually been talking with one another? Perhaps co-ordinating efforts so that they’d have maximum impact on Michael Eisner?
Well, I have to admit that I’m troubled by the consistency of the language that Shamrock and Pixar and Comcast have been using. How all three of these companies continue to carp about “quality,” and how they make it sound as if Michael Eisner were the cause of absolutely everything that’s gone wrong at the Mouse House.
And I’m particularly bothered by the fact that — when I brought up the Comcast rumor with a member of Shamrock’s senior staff two weeks ago — I was told to ignore that story. That it was just idle internet chatter.
So where does this leave us? In a rather uncomfortable spot, I fear. I mean, I want to keep rooting for Roy and Stanley. ‘Cause I really do think that it’s time for Michael Eisner to go. Not because he’s a bad guy or anything like that. But just because Michael’s been on the job for — what? — 19 years now. And that’s an awfully long time to serve as the head of a major media operation.
So I think that Michael should get out while the getting’s good. I mean, it’s clear that the investment community has turned against him.
How do I know this? Well, take a look at the two images below. Which both ran this week in the Wall Street Journal.