What sort of ripple effect will Disney’s decision to push back “The Good Dinosaur” ‘s release date have?

Jim Hill

11 years ago

Do your remember that scene from the original “Jurassic
Park
” where — as that off-screen T-Rex stomped around the paddock which
he was about to escape from — his footfalls were so heavy that they actually
cause ripples in those water glasses which Tim & Lexy are drinking from?

Well, Disney’s decision to push back the release date of
“The Good Dinosaur” from May 30, 2014 to November 25, 2015 is bound
to cause some ripples too. But not in the ways that you might think.

Obviously, this is going to cause some upheaval on the
Consumer Products side of things at The Walt Disney Company. If only because
Mouse House reps have been meeting with & then signing contracts with
licensees to produce “Good Dinosaur” products for the better part of
two years now. All so — once the Spring of next year arrives — retailers
around the world would then have been able to sell t-shirts, action figures
& plush toys that looked just like Arlo, Spot, Cliff, Ivy and Forest
do in this movie. And now because the release date of this particular Pixar production
has been pushed back by 18 months … Well, that then means there are suddenly
a whole lot of people who create products for WalMart, Target et all who have
to scramble around and make other plans.

And trust me, folks. The people who work for Disney Consumer
Products are not happy that “The Good Dinosaur” has been pushed back
from May of 2014 to November of 2015. If only because this now means that
“The Good Dinosaur” will be following “Jurassic World“
(which is supposed to be released on June
12, 2015) into theaters.

“And what’s so bad about that?,” you ask. Well, in the
brick-and-mortal retail world, there are only some many endcaps, so much shelf
space to go around. And if WalMart &Target already have a ton of
“Jurassic World” material that they’re still trying to sell off / get
rid of by the late Summer / early Fall of 2015 … Well, that then might mean
that they’ll be a bit conservative when it comes to ordering “Good
Dinosaur” toys. Which — again — could have a significant ripple effect /
negative impact on DCP’s overall earnings for late 2015 / early 2016. Not to
mention the hole that pushing the release of this Pixar production back 18
months is going to put in Consumer Product’s financial projections for the end of fiscal 2014.

And then — provided that the current average wait time
between a film’s theatrical-release and then the DVD & Blu-ray release of
this same film holds — “Jurassic World” should be hitting store
shelves during the first week of October 2015. Which is just seven weeks or so
before “The Good Dinosaur” opens in theaters.

Now let me make a prediction here (which — I know — on the face of it will
initially sound very dumb. But this is how the media works these days): In the
weeks out ahead of “The Good Dinosaur” being released to theaters,
you’re going to see a number of stories in the entertainment press about
whether moviegoers will actually buy tickets for a second dinosaur film less
than six months after “Jurassic World” opened in theaters.

And let me make a second prediction here. In those articles
which ask “Will ‘Jurassic World’ ‘s success at the box office undercut
ticket sales for ‘The Good Dinosaur’ ?,” you’re going to see lot of these
same authors pointing to how “Olympus Has Fallen” supposedly undercut
“White House Down” ‘s ticket sales this past summer.

Anyway … Enough with the bad news: Let’s talk about the
movies that will most likely benefit from Disney’s decision to push back the
release date of “The Good Dinosaur.” These include the two animated
features that will now be opening ahead of the release date that this Pixar
production just vacated — “Rio 2” (which opens in theaters on April
11th) and “Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return”(which opens in theaters
on May 9th) — as well as the DreamWorks Animation film that was originally
supposed to bow two weeks after “The Good Dinosaur,” “How to Train Your
Dragon 2” (which opens in theaters on June 13th).

Oddly enough, another movie will probably benefit from this Pixar production’s
postponement is “Planes: Fire and Rescue.” The sequel to
Disney “Planes” (which — to date — has earned $83.3 million domestically
and an additional $55.8 million overseas) is slated to be released to theaters on July
18, 2014. And given that the Marketing department at Walt Disney
Studios will no longer have a Pixar production to hype in the late Spring / early
Summer of 2014, you can expect that “Planes: Fire and Rescue” will
now get a full court press. So it will be interesting — what with all of the
additional marketing that the Mouse can now be expected to do for this
DisneyToon Studios production — to see how “Fire and Rescue” ‘s
grosses compare with the original “Planes” box office totals this
time next year.

Also, it’s worth noting here that pushing back “The
Good Dinosaur” by a year may actually wind up being a good thing. Not only
because it will then give the folks up in Emeryville the time that they need to
fix this film’s story. But also because (to borrow that old cliché) absence
sometimes does actually make the heart grow fonder.

To explain: There are those who study Hollywood history who suggest
that one of the main reasons that “The Lion King
” racked up such huge
numbers at the box office during the Summer of 1994 (i.e., $312.8 million domestic )
was because it had been over 18 months at that point since the last Walt Disney
Animations Studios production, “Aladdin
,” had been released to
theaters (And just in case you were wondering: That Ron Clements / John Musker
movie was released to theaters back in November of 1992. And
“Aladdin” earned $217.3 million domestically, $286.7 million overseas for a combined
worldwide box office total of $504
million).

At the very least, it doesn’t look like an 18 month delay will have all that
much of a negative impact on “The Good Dinosaur” ‘s box office
potential. Looking back on the last time something like this happened (i.e.,
there was a year-and-a-half long gap between the November 2004 release of
“The Incredibles
” and the June 2006 release of “Cars
“),
Brad Bird‘s superhero saga made $261.4
million domestic, $370 million overseas for a grand total of $631.4 million
worldwide. Whereas John Lasseter‘s tribute to small town living sold $244.0
million worth of tickets stateside, $217 million to foreign filmgoers. With
“Cars” combined worldwide box office totals coming in at $461.9
million.

So long story short: If “The Good Dinosaur”
worldwide box office totals are eventually on par with “The
Incredibles” & “Cars,” no one has to worry about Pixar
Animation Studios becoming extinct anytime soon.

In the meantime, here’s hoping that the folks up in
Emeryville who have been tasked with fixing “The Good Dinosaur” get a
handle on this film’s story problems very, very soon. Because — based on the concept
art that’s already out there — there are already a lot of little kids around
the world who’d love to get their hands on an Arlo & Spot plush.

Your thoughts?

UPDATE: And in the 24 hours since this story was originally posted on JHM, Walt Disney Studios has made further adjustments to its theatrical release schedule for 2014, 2015 and 2016 to compensate for “The Good Dinosaur” being shifted from May of 2014 to November of 2015. Disney “Maleficent” — which was originally supposed to be released on July 2, 2014 — will now open in theaters in the “Good Dinosaur” ‘s old slot, May 30, 2014. Meanwhile, because the “Good Dinosaur” is now supposed to open in theaters on the date that was originally reserved for “Finding Dory,” the release date of this Andrew Stanton film has been pushed back to June 17, 2016.

Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Given that — at the D23 EXPO — Pixar’s reps eluded to the fact that they were already in the process of overhauling the storyline of this “Finding Nemo” follow-up. That — after a screening of “Blackfish” on the Emeryville campus — Stanton & his production team were no longer comfortable with setting this sequel in a SeaWorld-like park where the animals are kept in tanks & cages. So now, Pixar’s in the process of rewriting “Finding Dory” storyline so that the fish who are on display at this seaside theme park can come & go as they please. If they want to do that, that is.