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Will Disney World’s new “Buy 4 Get 3 FREE!” promotion really be enough to get you to book a trip to Orlando in early 2009?

Bob Iger didn’t mince words during yesterday’s earnings call. Though Disney’s CEO said he was pleased with the Company’s overall performance in fiscal 2008, 2009 looks to be a very different story.

What with advance bookings at the Walt Disney World Resort down almost 10% from what they were a year ago today, Iger felt that it was now time to put some incentives on the table. “Our research tells us that people still want to take vacations in 2009,” he explained. “But they are going to be much more value-focused.”

So with this in mind, late yesterday afternoon the Mouse rolled out its new “Buy 4 Get 3 FREE!” promotion for the WDW Resort. This promotion — which will be available most nights between January 4 and June 27, 2009 — will allow Guests to buy a 4-day / 4-night package for a Disney Value resort and then get 3 additional nights at this same resort for free. And — yes — Theme Parks tickets are included as part of this package.

Copyright 2008 Disney. All Rights Reserved

As a further incentive to get Guests to book trips to Disney World from January through March of 2009 (A time when advance bookings for the Resort are said to be at an all-time low), the Mouse will be throwing in a $200 Disney Gift Card. Which will be presented to the Guests at check-in and can then be used to purchase food & merchandise at participating locations at the Resort.

Now this isn’t the only time in recent months that Mickey has used financial incentives in an effort to boost attendance levels at the WDW Resort. Take — for example — that special holiday shopping promotion that Disney World made available to annual passholders earlier this week (and — more importantly — will be offering again November 16 – 20). If these APers booked a room at one of WDW’s Value Resorts (Which — as part of this annual passholder holiday shopping promotion — Disney was making available for as little as $49 a night), Disney World would then give these APers a 35% discount on select merchandise that they purchased on property.

And it isn’t just WDW’s annual passholders that the Mouse has been reaching out lately. Earlier this Fall, in an effort to get Guests who were already staying on property to commit to another trip to Orlando in 2009, the Resort was offering them Free Disney Dining Plan upon their return. But only if these Guests were willing to put down a $200 deposit on their next Disney World vacation before they actually checked out of that Resort.

Copyright 2008 Disney. All Rights Reserved

Now it’s important to note here that Disney World is only offering these sorts of incentives to Guests who are willing to buy vacation packages for the Resort’s shoulder periods. You know? Those quiet weeks inbetween those times of year when the Resort historically experiences high attendance. Like the upcoming two-week-long holiday period. Which — according to what Bob said yesterday — is only off 1% from the sorts of advance bookings that WDW saw for this same time period last year.

But as for that period beyond Christmas & New Years … Well, as Iger explained yesterday:

“Bookings during the last month have fallen off considerably. Part of this change is likely a reflection of consumers taking a wait-and-see approach to the economy, or waiting to see if the market produces discounts.”

Copyright 2002 Disney. All Rights Reserved

Well, if would-be WDW Guests are now looking for discounts, then that’s what Mickey intends to give them. Anything to help fill up those 32,000 room on property.

Mind you, to help make these obviously-expensive-to-implement Guest incentive programs seem that much more palatable to Mouse House management, Disney World will be economizing wherever it can in the coming fiscal year. Again quoting from Mr. Iger’s comments during yesterday’s earnings call:

During the last several weeks, (WDW) management team has stepped up to the task of identifying and implementing steps to reduce expenses and to create more efficient operations.

Copyright 2007 Disney. All Rights Reserved

At Parks and Resorts, our experience during previous downturns, especially the challenging period after 9-11, has taught us to be very good at managing variable expenses based on variable demand. We will do this while preserving the quality of the Guest Experience, something we consider sacred.

Of course, in order to reduce expenses while still preserving that sacred Guest Experience, something will still have be to cut. In some cases, it was something that the Guests would never see or know about — like cancelling the Cast Members’ Christmas Party for 2008. In other cases, Disney will just try and limit the impact that these cost containment measures will have on the paying customers. Like not eliminating all live entertainment in the Parks. But — rather — just cutting back on the number of performances that are presented each week. Which will then help Entertainment bring its budget in line.

And Disney is being very, very selective about where it makes these cuts these days. Knowing that — as Iger explained yesterday …

Copyright 2008 Disney. All Rights Reserved

The consumer today clearly is being very, very careful about what they spend, how much they spend, rather, and what they spend it on. And I think that price-to-value relationship has probably never been more critical. And I think that plays very well for a company like ours because brand becomes really important and the price-to-value that a brand like Disney can offer, whether you are offering a travel package, selling a DVD, selling a movie, or selling consumer products, I think sets us up very well in what clearly is a very, very challenging time.

So what do you folks think? Is this new “Buy 4 Get 3 FREE!” promotion just the sort of thing that will actually convince you to go buy a WDW vacation package before December 20th? Or are you still willing to wait ’til 2009 to see what other sorts of incentives Disney will then put on the table?

Your thoughts?

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Happy Holidays!

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